@willdv2002.bsky.social
ESRC Funded PhD student in Politics at Cardiff University, studying electoral reform in Wales (personal account) Research profile: https://profiles.cardiff.ac.uk/research-staff/daviesw18
Absolutely cracking @walesgovernance.bsky.social annual lecture by Prof John Curtice of @unistrathclyde.bsky.social about the devolution elections in Scotland & Wales in the new era of multi-party politics in the UK, with Plaid Cymru/SNP emerging as chief rivals to Reform in #Senedd26 #Holyrood26
26.11.2025 20:29 β π 9 π 3 π¬ 1 π 0
Rudy Giuliani on Facebook posting a photo of the twin towers burning on 911 superimposed with his own face and the message "New York, you forgot"
Checking in on Rudy Giuliani, I see he's having an insane one
05.11.2025 18:42 β π 7431 π 1075 π¬ 78 π 519
New blog
Cracks in the Stonehenge of Welsh Politics: Caerphilly and Labourβs Future
Read @nyedavies.bsky.social on why the result in Caerphilly should act as a wake-up call to Welsh Labour, despite many in the party having warned against reading too much into the defeat
Read more: edin.ac/4949g0m
Lawyers can breathe a sigh of relief that the odds of being shot by Dick Cheney have now went from "improbable" to "impossible".
04.11.2025 12:53 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0
Pairwise visual conjoint experiment in the wild
30.10.2025 12:24 β π 82 π 9 π¬ 6 π 1
Arne Slot and Geert Wilders tonight:
29.10.2025 21:48 β π 267 π 29 π¬ 10 π 2
It's also worth mentioning that Labour tried their *own* poll-like stunt weeks before the Camlas poll, arguably to a much higher degree of publicity than PC - if Hedges is right and the polls were mostly to blame then how much more money would they have to have spent on billboards to make it work?!
29.10.2025 13:32 β π 5 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0
You think your elections are nail biters? In the last poll of the polls, the @peilingwijzer.bsky.social produced by @tomlouwerse.nl, before election day in the Netherlands tomorrow, three parties are tied for first place
peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl
this timeline is unreal
24.10.2025 17:06 β π 47 π 14 π¬ 8 π 2That scene of the Welsh BBC correspondent being the only person interviewing Caerphilly's new Plaid AM while the rest of the media interviewed Reform's loser in the background was far too on the nose.
24.10.2025 01:34 β π 2121 π 692 π¬ 34 π 31
πΊ New research from @cujournmedcul.bsky.social's Enhancing the Impartiality of Political News project
Our latest study analyses how BBC Cymru Wales and ITV Wales have covered the Caerphilly by-election across TV, online & social media.
π www.enhancingimpartiality.com/blog/bbc-itv...
TLDR π
My mistake, you are correct! I generated the file, but I did not give you a download link β let me go get it for you [pretends to walk down stairs behind couch]
20.10.2025 02:22 β π 5431 π 897 π¬ 4 π 10
Y NEWYDDION DIWEDDARAF - PΓ΄l isetholiad Caerffili wedi'i rhyddhau gan Camlas a @survation.bsky.social
Mae ein pΓ΄l ar gyfer isetholiad #Caerffili yn darogan y bydd Reform UK yn ennill gyda Phlaid Cymru yn ail agos.
Mae Llafur Cymru yn drydydd gyda dim ond 12% oβr pΓ΄l.
BREAKING - New Caerphilly by-election prediction poll released by Camlas and Survation Ltd
Our poll for the upcoming #Caerphilly by-election places Reform UK to win with Plaid Cymru close behind.
Welsh Labour is pushed to a vote share of just 12%.
Someone at the Guinea-Bissau electoral commission was having a lot of fun with WordArt in 1994
15.10.2025 14:41 β π 16 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0This is such a good article btw - I really buy this as a theory of contemporary US politics
13.10.2025 11:12 β π 281 π 88 π¬ 10 π 8The rarely seen Type III Error.
09.10.2025 19:22 β π 30 π 8 π¬ 1 π 1
NEW DATA: Notional results for the 2021 Scottish Parliament election on 2026 boundaries. Of interest to academics/pollsters/journos
Post: chrishanretty.co.uk/posts/sp2026...
Data: github.com/chrishanrett...
Source: github.com/chrishanrett...
ARE YOU LISTENING MAURICE DUVERGER?? YOUR BOYS TOOK A HELL OF A BEATING
TONY DOWNS, CAN YOU HEAR ME? WHERE IS YOUR MEDIAN VOTER NOW???
I've written for @uniofbathipr.bsky.social blog about why the @appgfairelections.bsky.social's blueprint for a "National Commission on Electoral Reform" avoids the pitfalls of previous electoral reform efforts (e.g. the Jenkins Commission), and offers a way for British politics to escape from FPTP
30.09.2025 16:04 β π 12 π 11 π¬ 0 π 1Anyone going to add this to their MRP?
02.10.2025 20:21 β π 26 π 4 π¬ 2 π 0THE MEME IS REAL
29.09.2025 01:38 β π 9247 π 2805 π¬ 58 π 38
NEW: The UK Govt's Ministry of Justice begins routinely publishing Wales-only prison data for the first time following a decade of research exposing issues in the Welsh criminal justice system by Dr Robert Jones. 1/3
www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/29...
All EU countries appear to be gone in the Google political ad library
By @lizcarolan.com
The Swingometer is back up and running today after an extended book writing hiatus. I've taken a long look at Reform's May local elections performance, how FPP is now Farage's friend, and why it may get even better for Reform (& worse for Lab & Con) next May:
open.substack.com/pub/swingome...
w/ @massimoprearo.bsky.social on @qoe-ijes.bsky.social, we introduce our 2024 Italian LGBTIQ+ Electoral Survey: the first large-N evidence on the political behaviour & attitudes of Italian LGBTIQ+ citizens. We discuss data, methodological challenges & relevance here: oaj.fupress.net/index.php/qo...
17.09.2025 08:58 β π 20 π 9 π¬ 0 π 0
Our new BARN Cymru poll run with @itvcymruwales.bsky.social and @yougov.co.uk has landed π #Senedd26 #Wales #Cymru
16.09.2025 16:36 β π 32 π 20 π¬ 2 π 37
The seat projections are pretty dramatic. Allowing for movement of a few points in many directions: Plaid Cymru ~38 seats, Reform UK ~35 seats, Labour ~11 seats, Conservatives ~6 seats, Lib Dems ~3 seats, Greens ~ 1 π§΅
16.09.2025 16:47 β π 15 π 9 π¬ 3 π 2
Latest ITV BarnCymru π΄σ §σ ’σ ·σ ¬σ ³σ Ώ poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales π§΅
16.09.2025 16:47 β π 102 π 73 π¬ 10 π 12Charlie Kirk was a champion of free speech and anyone who says otherwise will be fired
15.09.2025 14:17 β π 17255 π 3342 π¬ 796 π 191
