Patrick Greenfield

The world lost the climate gamble. Now it faces a dangerous new reality The world bet on collective but voluntary action to keep global warming at a safe level.

"Warming is going to exceed 1.5°C. We are heading into “overshoot” within the next few years. The world is going to become more turbulent and more dangerous. So, what comes after failure?" Some thoughts from Johan Rockstrom & me 10 years after Paris Agreement.

theconversation.com/the-world-lo...

‘There is no money’: As carbon markets collapse, what happens to the forests they promised to protect? After it was found most offsets did not represent real carbon reductions, the money dried up. But successful schemes such as Kasigau in Kenya now face a stark future

Good piece by @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social on the current state of the carbon markets.

Almost 3 years on from our investigation, the market is reforming, but has the Trump White House killed corporate interest in protecting forests?

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

NEW: Just 28% of nations have released plans for reversing nature loss a year after UN deadline

🐝8/17 megadiverse yet to produce their plans, called "NBSAPs"
🪲Includes Brazil, most biodiverse nation and COP30 host
🐜All G7 nations now have a plan, except for US

www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-jus...

you're a good follow tbf! haha

O Brasil seria um dos primeiros a reclamar se outro país estivesse fazendo isso...

A study predicted huge climate damages. But it had a fatal flaw: Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan’s erroneous data dramatically changed the results of a study on global climate damages.

A study predicted economic damages from climate change 3x higher than previous assessments. But it was flawed -- all thanks to the data from just one country.

I dug into this strange study and the researchers calling it out:

www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

The extraordinary life and mysterious death of a carbon credits broker How an Italian fugitive used diplomatic immunity to work with Dubai royalty and Liberia’s fallen hero

I’m glad this extraordinary tale by @kenzabryan.ft.com is finally out. The carbon credit business is a LOT more interesting than I thought… on.ft.com/4lqMZMV

I’ll says this once:

We’re spending a lot more on mitigation (e.g., renewables) than on CDR research. A lot more.

It could simultaneously be true that CDR research acts as mitigation deterrence and we need to do CDR research.

Trees will not be enough to reduce atmospheric CO₂.

A conference in a modern venue, with attendees seated at round tables. A presenter stands at a podium in front of large screens displaying slides.

I categorically disagree with claims that CO₂ removal (CDR) is a scam. The field is full of smart people dedicated to figuring out what, if anything, works, because we’ll need CDR in the future for legacy and residual emissions. Funding via market mechanisms isn’t ideal, but doesn’t make it a scam.

Fires drove record loss of world’s forests last year, ‘frightening’ data shows Burning, worsened by global heating, overtook farming and logging as biggest cause of destruction of tropical forests

Fires drove record loss of world’s forests last year, ‘frightening’ data shows

Burning, worsened by the #climatecrisis, overtook farming and logging as biggest cause of destruction of tropical forests

Story by @pgreenfielduk.bsky.social
www.theguardian.com/environment/...

She tried to expose Russia’s brutal detention system — and ended up dead A consortium of international journalists continued the work of Viktoriia Roshchyna, who was investigating reports of torture and detention of Ukrainian civilians in occupied Ukraine.

Russia has returned the body of Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna.

Her body showed clear signs of torture: broken ribs, bruises, injuries from electric shocks. Some of her internal organs, including her eyeballs, brain and trachea, had been removed.

Viktoria was 27 years old.

I've put together a webpage with country-level charts that @glenpeters.bsky.social and I produce. Currently 89 countries, not all with same charts. More to come, including data downloads.
Explore for yourself here:
robbieandrew.github.io/country/

"A proposal for such a levy, which has the support of scores of developing countries, the EU and the UK, is under discussion at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in London, in talks that started last month and resume next week before finishing on 11 April.”

We’ve failed to stop climate change — this is what we need to do next While we can still limit warming by cutting emissions, we now face having to adapt to more extreme weather

This is an important piece

By @ben-spencer.bsky.social

www.thetimes.com/uk/environme...

Fearing toxic waste, Greenland ended uranium mining. Now, they could be forced to restart - or pay $11bn The island is being sued by a mining company over its decision, and faces paying nine times its annual budget in damages if it loses

Fearing toxic waste, Greenland ended uranium mining. Now, they could be forced to restart - or pay $11bn

My reporting from Narsaq - with Phoebe Weston 👇

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Cop16 nature summit agrees deal at 11th hour but critics say it is not enough UN biodiversity conference in Rome ends with fragile accord but questions remain over whether funding will emerge

Governments reached a deal at #Cop16 in Rome last night. But it is clear that this decade's biodiversity agreement is already on life support.

Phoebe Weston reports from the Italian capital

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Nations have finalised a document for planning, monitoring, reporting, and review (PMRR) in plenary at #COP16

There was just one outstanding issue – in classic COP fashion – with a footnote, which has been resolved

Formal adoption of documents won't happen until later tonight, final plenary at 9pm

Under 3 years ago, countries set a big global pledge to protect 30% of Earth for nature by 2030

But our new investigation shows more than half of nations aren't willing to back 30 by 30 within their borders

We found this out by digging through 100s of UN docs

www.carbonbrief.org/revealed-mor...

Crucial UN nature talks are about to reopen in Rome – but will enough countries turn up? After last year’s Cop16 biodiversity talks in Cali left key issues unresolved, the extra summit will attempt to seek consensus, especially over funding

Crucial UN nature talks are about to reopen in Rome – but will enough countries turn up?

Phoebe Weston previews #Cop16 in Rome

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Get submitting

The Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards — Covering Climate Now Entry submissions are OPEN for the 2025 Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards. This is the fifth year for our annual awards program, and every year we’re amazed by the quality and variety of work ent...

🥁 It's that time of year again... We know you've all been waiting for it... Submissions are OPEN for the 2025 Covering Climate Now Journalism Awards! 🎉

Read the full Carbon Brief analysis by @daisydunne.carbonbrief.org , @giulianaviglione.bsky.social &
@yaninequiroz.bsky.social

bsky.app/profile/carb...

More than half of countries are ignoring biodiversity pledges – analysis Many of the nations gathering in Rome for Cop16 have offered no plans to honour their agreement to protect 30% of land and sea for nature

In late 2022, the world agreed to protect 30% of the planet for nature.

Now, more than half the world’s countries have no plans to deliver on the target, according to analysis by Carbon Brief & The Guardian.

www.theguardian.com/environment/...

If you are a researcher who has been affected by this kind of thing, get in contact: patrick.greenfield@theguardian.com .

as we finish up 2024, here are a few favourite pieces published by the age of extinction (nature @ the guardian). I take freelance pitches too, so will add some notes on pitching to this thread & hope it's a generally a useful rundown of work we do and how we approach it. in no specific order:

Scientists Behind ‘Net Zero’ Concept Say Nations Are Getting It Wrong In a new study, high-profile climate scientists say countries are using flawed carbon accounting by relying too heavily on trees and oceans to absorb new carbon emissions.

An All-Star roster of climate scientists cleared their throats recently and it was something to behold.

Their message to Net-Zero experts in every sector?
You're Doing It Wrong 🧪
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Put another way, the proposed $250bn target is really a $197.6bn target in today's money, assuming the same inflation rate, so it is not even a doubling...

3/3

The Nicholas Stern calculations (basis of the $1.3tn) say that targets should be $300bn by 2030 and $390bn by 2035 *in 2022 USD*.

$390bn will be more like $538bn in 2035 assuming a continue inflation rate of 2.38% per year (historic US average for last 15 years).

2/3

A significant issue with the #COP29 text on climate finance is how it deals with inflation (it doesn't).

Money decreases in value over time.

$250bn now is not the same as $250bn in 2035... The text allows inflation to make the target easier to meet.

1/3

Cop29 climate finance deal hits fresh setback as deadline looms Outcry after draft text contains only an ‘X’ instead of setting $1tn funding goal to support developing countries

At #Cop29, it looks like we still have a long wait for a serious negotiating text

www.theguardian.com/environment/...