Dr Bamo Nouri

Why US going to war with Iran would be a big mistake Analysis from an expert in international politics

Delighted to see my latest op-ed published through
@the-independent.com

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/a...

#InternationalRelations #MiddleEastPolitics #USForeignPolicy
#Iran
#Geopolitics
#GlobalSecurity
#ForeignPolicyAnalysis
#StrategicStudies
#WarAndPeace
#MultipolarWorld
#USPolitics
#Trump
#MiddleEast
#SecurityStudies
#PoliticalAnalysis #WorldPolitics
#GlobalOrder
#StraitOfHormuz

Why it would be a big mistake for the US to go to war with Iran Despite the bellicose rhetoric, Washington must realise the folly of another protracted conflict in the Middle East.

theconversation.com/why-it-would...

My latest for @theconversation.com

'Why it would be a big mistake for the US to go to war with Iran'

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

My latest for @theamargi.bsky.social :The Return of #Thucydides at Davos: Mark Carney, a Broken World Order, and the Kurdish Moment of Truth:
When Carney said “the old order is not coming back,” he wasn’t being dramatic - he was naming a rupture. For Kurds, this is an existential warning.

The Return of Thucydides at Davos: Mark Carney, a Broken World Order, and the Kurdish Moment of Truth When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addressed the World Economic Forum in Davos, his message cut through years of diplomatic euphemism. “We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition,” he sa...

www.theamargi.com/posts/the-re...

#Davos #WEF #WorldEconomicForum #GlobalOrder #WorldOrder #AgeOfDanger #Thucydides #Realism #GreatPowerPolitics
#Kurds #KurdishQuestion #StatelessNations #MiddleEast #Syria #Iraq #Turkey #Iran
#Geopolitics #InternationalRelations #ForeignPolicy #GlobalSecurity #PowerPolitics

This is the Kurdish moment of truth.
Nostalgia is not a strategy. Moral legitimacy is not protection. The age of danger has arrived - and the system will fail those it was never built to defend.

For stateless peoples, this matters more than for anyone else. Kurds do not trade in leverage or deterrence; they survive on arrangements that can be revoked, rewritten, or ignored overnight.

Davos has long sold the idea of rules, institutions, and predictability. Carney’s speech quietly admitted the truth: those guarantees now function by habit, not force - and habits are breaking.

My latest for @theamargi.bsky.social :The Return of #Thucydides at Davos: Mark Carney, a Broken World Order, and the Kurdish Moment of Truth:
When Carney said “the old order is not coming back,” he wasn’t being dramatic - he was naming a rupture. For Kurds, this is an existential warning.

Signs that Trump’s economic policies are alienating his rural Maga base Deportations are draining the pool of agricultural workers, while tariffs are forcing up costs for farmers and small businesses.

theconversation.com/signs-that-t... - As Trump’s second term unfolds, contradictions at heart of his “America First” agenda are increasingly apparent. What began as a populist revolt against elite globalism appears to have morphed into policies that alienate constituencies that thrice backed him

The Age of Danger Intensifies in a Liberal International Order that is Dying The recent arrest of Nicolás Maduro, conducted beyond Venezuelan jurisdiction and justified through an elastic interpretation of international law, should not be understood just as an enforcement acti...

From the Kurds in Syria and Iran, to Maduro's recent arrest, the symptoms are there in my latest piece for @theamargi.bsky.social :
The Age of Danger Intensifies in a Liberal International Order that is Dying theamargi.com/posts/the-ag...
#Kurds #Syria #iran #madurocaptured #trump

Dr. Bamo Nouri, Honorary Research Fellow, Department of International Politics, City St George's, University of London Podcast Episode · Shaye Ganam · 15/01/2026 · 12m

I was delighted to appear on the #Canada based Shaye Ganam #Podcast to discuss all things #US Foreign Policy in response to Iran and the potential of US strikes, Washington and Tehran's response.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/s...

#ForeignPolicy
#USForeignPolicy
#MiddleEastPolitics
#Iran

‘A scenario involving significant US casualties would also undermine the “America First” approach associated with Donald Trump, esp at a time when domestic political & economic pressures in the US are already high, & public tolerance for costly foreign entanglements is low.’

‘Adjusting troop levels is therefore a precautionary move to reduce vulnerability and protect personnel in a moment of heightened risk, reflecting realism about how Iran has behaved in past confrontations rather than any loss of US commitment to the region.

‘US planners are acutely aware that if Iran were attacked, it would almost certainly respond, and history shows that response would most likely involve strikes on nearby US military bases rather than on the US mainland,’

US pulls troops out of major Middle East base after Iran tensions grow Al Udeid, the largest US military installation in the Middle East, houses around 10,000 troops and serves as headquarters for US Central Command.

My remarks shared with @metrouk.bsky.social on the US troop reduction in Qatar, a major Middle East base, after Iran tensions continue to grow.
This is a obviously strategic and operational calculation – not a retreat!
metro.co.uk/2026/01/14/u...

The use of military force in Iran could backfire for Washington Donald Trump’s best option in Iran may be to show restraint.

My latest piece for @uk.theconversation.com just out: 'The use of military force in Iran could backfire for Washington'

theconversation.com/the-use-of-m...

I argue that a missile strike won’t break the regime, it will solidify it & true solidarity with Iran lies not in dramatic intervention, but in principled restraint & grounded support for Iranian civil society. Democracy can't be imposed - especially not at the point of a missile.

And yet, military escalation risks reframing it as exactly that - giving the regime the excuse it needs to escalate repression even further.

The current protest movement in Iran is decentralised, civic-led, and powered by women and marginalised groups - especially in Kurdish regions. It is not a foreign project.

That’s why many Iranians today reject foreign-backed figures like Reza Pahlavi - not because of who they are as individuals, but because of what they represent: monarchy, exile politics, and external agendas disconnected from local struggles.

The Shah’s authoritarian reign that followed left behind a legacy of trauma and distrust that still shapes Iranian political consciousness today.

#Iran is not a blank slate. In 1953, the CIA and MI6 overthrew a democratically elected government led by Mohammad Mossadegh - not to promote democracy, but to protect oil interests.

As #Washington weighs military responses to Iran’s brutal crackdown on protesters, the real question is not whether the US has tools - but whether any of them will actually work, and what unintended consequences may follow.

The piece examines the limits of #US foreign policy toward Iran and the dangerous allure of interventionism - especially in moments of legitimate, organic domestic protest.

The use of military force in Iran could backfire for Washington Donald Trump’s best option in Iran may be to show restraint.

My latest piece for @uk.theconversation.com just out: 'The use of military force in Iran could backfire for Washington'

theconversation.com/the-use-of-m...

Add #Iraq, #Afghanistan, #Syria; intervention hollowed states or empowered armed actors. Escalation risks turning protest into proxy war, not change. Support civil society - don’t rewrite it as a security threat.