Will headline U.S. CPI for July 2025, as reported by the BLS on August 13, 2025, be below 2.6% year-over-year?: PROBABILITY: 15.

June was 2.7%, and models say it’ll stay around 2.73%. Core prices are sticky, and energy/food aren’t crashing. So, a dip below 2.6%? Almost a pipe dream. Stay salty.

Will the U.S. Commerce Department announce any loosening of export controls on AI chips to China by October 1, 2025?: PROBABILITY: 10.0%
They love tightening, no signals of a reversal, and bureaucratic red tape. Loosening? Not happening. Keep dreaming.

Will the U.S. trade rep impose pharma tariffs to hit 5% by July 31, 2025?: PROBABILITY: 10%

USTR’s not about to drop a bomb on pharma with no notice. No signs, lobbyists sleeping, and two weeks left. Chances? Slim to none. They’ll probably just keep dragging their feet as usual.

Will the US and EU publicly agree to resume formal bilateral trade negotiations by 2025-12-31?: PROBABILITY: 10.0% No way. Too much internal drama, weak signals, and no real negotiations happening. They’re just gonna ignore it and hope it goes away. Typical.

Will Russia and Ukraine sign a formal ceasefire by 2025-09-03?: PROBABILITY: 18%
Both sides are too stubborn, distrustful, and stuck in their positions. Diplomatic talks are just showboating. No real deal coming soon—just more posturing until someone blinks, if ever. Odds are still super low.

Will a majority of Tesla shareholders vote in favor of xAI? PROBABILITY: 68%.

Musk’s army and past wins mean it’s likely. Some grumbling, but overall, support should push it through. Just enough to get the job done.

Will the Trump admin reinstate civil rights funding to Columbia by Oct 1, 2025?: PROBABILITY: 60%
They’re close, but Trump’s love for chaos means last-minute drama, delays, or renegotiations. Expect a PR win, but don’t count on it being smooth. Slight edge, but still a coin flip.

Will Mexico and the US reach a formal deal to stop Trump’s 30% tariffs on August 1, 2025? PROBABILITY: 22%
History says no. Trump’s threats rarely lead to real agreements. Both sides are too stubborn—Mexico’s not budging on fentanyl, Trump wants toughness. Expect more posturing than deals.

By 2025-12-31, will at least three NYT reporters admit using ChatGPT? PROBABILITY: 68%

They’re already dropping hints, and policies push transparency. Some will slip on social or research stuff, so it’s likely at least three will admit AI use. They won’t fully embrace it, but they’ll talk about it.

Will the Ninth Circuit vacate or stay the injunction by 2025-10-15? PROBABILITY: 75%
They already paused it and seemed deferential. Historically, they do this 70-80% of the time in 3-5 months. With the deadline coming up and no reason to drag, expect them to act soon.

Will the Fed cut 50+ bps between July and Dec 2025?: PROBABILITY: 58%.

They’ll probably ease a bit to keep markets calm, but it’s more guesswork than certainty. Odds favor some cuts, but don’t bet the farm. It’s basically a coin toss with a slight edge for easing if inflation cooperates.

By August 31, 2025, the chances of a deal are about 25%. Both sides are too stubborn, and the timeline’s too tight. Last-minute agreements are rare, especially with all the sector disputes and protectionist vibes. Expect more kicking the can, not a handshake.

Will the US Trade Rep issue the 35% tariff on Canada by August 1, 2025?: PROBABILITY: 70%
Trump’s fast, past tariffs moved quick. They’ll likely push it through before the deadline, last-minute drama or not. About 70% chance it’s done by mid-August.

By December 31, 2025, will Congress change the “phantom winnings” tax? PROBABILITY: 25%
Congress is too busy with debt, budgets, and filibusters. Bipartisan support for the bill exists, but with little urgency and no clear offsets, they’ll probably just ignore it till next year.

By December 31, 2025, will the U.S. impose 50% tariffs on Brazil? PROBABILITY: 60%.
Trump’s team loves rushing, and they’ve already started. Legal delays might slow it, but they’ll probably just issue the order and push forward. Expect some tariffs, even if it’s just a test.

By 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2025, will the US government publish a final copper tariff?: PROBABILITY: 10%
They’ll probably delay or ignore it. Timeline’s too tight, and history shows they drag these out. Expect it late or next year.

By 11:59 PM ET on Jan 20, 2026, will Trump propose or sign a bill to federalize DC police? PROBABILITY: 17%. Honestly, he’ll probably just tweet about it. Legislation? GOP support? Democratic opposition? Nah. It’s mostly wishful thinking—he’s more about the show than actual laws.

By 11:59 PM ET on August 1, 2025, will President Trump publicly announce an extension of the reciprocal tariffs deadline beyond August 1?: PROBABILITY: 18.0%
He’s acting like it’s “firm,” no leaks. Most likely, he’ll let it quietly expire or extend without a big announcement.

Will the America Party, founded by Elon Musk, field at least one candidate in any state’s House race by 2026? PROBABILITY: 55%.

Musk’s cash and hype help, but ballot access is tricky. They might pull it off or just keep it as a stunt. Coin flip either way.

Will Zohran Mamdani win the November 2025 NYC mayoral race? PROBABILITY: 30%.
NYC’s Dem line helps, but split moderates and turnout issues make it a long shot. He’s got a puncher’s chance if progressives turn out big, but odds are he falls short. Still, 30% ain’t zero—keep the hope alive.

By 11:59pm ET on Jan 15, 2026, will a court have vacated or blocked HHS vaccine decisions from July 2025?: PROBABILITY: 12%
These cases take 12-18 months, and courts stay orders pending appeal. So, unlikely to get a final decision before then.

Will U.S. and South Korea announce an extension before midnight? PROBABILITY: 72%
They’re dragging it out, last second’s their style. Economic risks and recent talks point to a late-night extension. Nobody wants tariffs back overnight, so they’ll probably kick the can again. Classic move.

By December 31, 2025, will Elon Musk’s new party file with the FEC?: PROBABILITY: 25%.
Most high-profile parties delay filing, focusing on ballots first. No signs Musk’s team has the funds or structure ready. They’ll probably keep playing the long game and avoid the headache for now.

Will Israel and Hamas sign a formal, US-brokered ceasefire covering Gaza by 2025-09-05?: PROBABILITY: 60%.
Timing’s tight, both want it, US needs a win, but past deals are fragile. One misstep and it’s back to chaos. Likely some signed paper, but don’t bet it sticks long-term.

Will NYC do a fare-free bus pilot by 2026? PROBABILITY: 58.0%

Legislation’s moving, pilots went well, city’s on board. But budgets are tight, Albany’s slow, and MTA still needs cash. So it’s basically a coin flip—could happen, but don’t hold your breath. Classic NYC delay tactics in action.

Will Elon Musk’s new party register with the FEC by 2025-12-31?: PROBABILITY: 20.0%

Musk announced it, then vanished. No filings, no fundraising. Timeline’s too tight, and celebrity stunts rarely make the cut. Probably just PR smoke—no real registration coming.

Will at least one film in the readers’ top 10 be missing from the NYT critics’ list?: PROBABILITY: 75%. Critics favor indie/art while readers hype blockbusters. History says 1-2 popular picks often get left out. Toss in mainstream bias and it’s a solid shot some reader fave isn’t on the critic list.

Will the share of U.S. nonfarm payrolls in health care drop between June and September 2025? PROBABILITY: 23%. Seasonal trends suggest it might, but summer hiring in other sectors could keep it stable or even up. Odds lean against a decline, but chaos always possible.

By December 31, 2025, will the U.S. GAO publish a report saying budget cuts degraded data? PROBABILITY: 12%
GAO’s not big on crying wolf, and no signs of a major audit. Unless a scandal or meltdown happens, they probably won’t suddenly declare data reliability dead by then.

Will the U.S. Senate confirm the 30-year-old nominee by Dec 31, 2025?: PROBABILITY: 80%
GOP with 53 seats, Democrats can delay but won’t block — too much hassle. Odds are they’ll push it through before the deadline. Just typical Senate noise with a decent chance it gets done.