Jack Andolina

Survey of political science faculty: Many potential actions by the Trump administration were rated as extraordinary or serious threats to democracy.
(@johncarey.bsky.social, @brendannyhan.bsky.social, Gretchen Helmke, Susan Stokes, @jandolina.bsky.social)
More:
opiniontoday.substack.com/p/251005

For those interested in forecasting, our new report compares political science expert predictions of democratic erosion with @metaculus.bsky.social forecasts and AI forecasts from Mantic

Check out the full US Democracy Threat Index we co-created with Metaculus here www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

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Experts actually saw Rep. Hortman’s assassination as the biggest threat in our set—95% vs. 85% for Kirk. It’s right at the top of the “Expert perceptions of threats and benefits to democracy” figure in the report.
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...

New Bright Line Watch report out today, with @brendannyhan.bsky.social Gretchen Helmke Susan Stokes and Jack Andolina. As always, sobering news but worth reading. And as always, thanks to all the academic experts who give time to our surveys.

-Probabilities of negative events broadly consistent between poli sci experts & forecasters on Metaculus prediction platform after correction for expert pessimism
-AI forecasts from the startup Mantic lower
-5 highly threatening events have median p>.5

brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...

-Partisans reverse their stance on tit-for-tat democratic norm violations depending on which party is retaliating
-Support has increased since 2021 among Democrats and Republicans for illegal redistricting and restricting or shutting down Fox News (for Ds) / MSNBC (for Rs)

-Experts see the Texas redistricting plan as a threat to democracy but are split over the California plan
-They expect to rate US democracy lower in 2027 if only Texas redistricts than a scenario in which both states do so
-Republicans support partisan redistricting more in general than do Democrats

-Many potential actions by the Trump administration were rated as extraordinary or serious threats to democracy by 89% of experts or more
-These potential actions dominated the list of the events most frequently rated by experts as posing extraordinary or serious threats to democracy since January

-Numerous events since April were rated as threats to democracy by 80% of experts or more
-Many of those events were widely approved by Republicans
-However, only one is among the ten most often rated by experts as posing an extraordinary or serious threat to democracy since Trump took office again

Evaluations of US democracy were unchanged after Kirk's shooting, but experts less likely to say the govt. is effectively preventing political violence

Other findings:
-Most experts rated the shooting as a threat to democracy
-Almost all Americans disapproved of the shooting, but 12% of Ds approved

Expert ratings of US upholding specific democratic principles mostly stable, but significant declines in
-toleration of peaceful protest
-not using government agencies to punish political opponents
-fair electoral district boundaries.

Public: R ratings largely stable, Ds see declines in many areas

🚨 New Bright Line Watch report on state of US democracy
brightlinewatch.org/violence-red...

-Expert ratings ~= since April but ↓ substantially since January
-US now most closely resembles an illiberal democracy
-Partisan gap in democracy ratings highest since 2017

Full thread of results below

Experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy Experts say political violence, Trump's attacks against non-partisan agencies and institutions, and partisan gerrymandering are their top concerns

A new report from Bright Line Watch finds experts now rate the U.S. as a "mixed" or "illiberal" democracy. The rating is dragged down by Trump's attacks on institutions, a weak legislature, political violence, and partisan gerrymandering www.gelliottmorris.com/p/experts-no...

New: The US Democracy Threat Index - a collaboration between Bright Line Watch & @metaculus.bsky.social that will aggregate real-time forecasts of risks to democracy across 39 questions of concern

Overview www.metaculus.com/notebooks/39...

Go make predictions now! www.metaculus.com/index/us-dem...

Read our latest Bright Line Watch report for more on faculty self-censoring brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d... (surely much worse at UF)

Will RFK's HHS commission conduct or publish a study that shows a link between vaccines and autism?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

Read the whole report for more! brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...

Faculty who report self-censoring mostly cite the political climate beyond campus (71%). Key fears:
-Harassment (64%)
-Professional harm (48%)
-Legal sanctions (26%)
-Violence (19%)

Notably, non-citizens overwhelmingly cite immigration status fears (75%).

Many political science faculty perceive declines in academic freedom since January, especially on Israel/Palestine (43%) & DEI (42%). Self-censorship reported in extramural speech (55%), communicating with students (40%), teaching (33%), and research (20%).

Overwhelmingly rated as serious threats to democracy
-Failure to return Albrego Garcia
-EO targeting ActBlue
-Withdrawing univ funds/limiting academic freedom

Near-unanimous concern over potential actions:
-Sending citizens to foreign prisons
-Mass denaturalizations
-Partisan judicial impeachment

Across 31 democratic principles, experts see substantial declines since Trump returned to power in protections for unpopular speech or expression, govt. agencies not being used to punish political opponents, freedom of the press, the impartiality of criminal investigations & judicial independence

Overall ratings of US democracy on 0-100 scale fell significantly among both experts and the public. Public ratings dropped below midpoint (49 in April) for 1st time since 2017 survey began. Even R ratings fell (59 -> 56). US now rated by experts just above Israel, below Mexico and Poland.

🚨New Bright Line Watch report on the state of US democracy

-Democracy ratings ↓ w/experts & public, including Rs
-Performance ↓ in numerous areas such as free speech/press, abuse of government powers
-Faculty report academic freedom decline & self-censorship

brightlinewatch.org/threats-to-d...

🧵

And how much of George Santos’ 87 month sentence will he serve?
www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

Forecast question live! Will Santos receive a pardon or commutation? www.metaculus.com/questions/37...

Over 25% of Canadians are being exposed to more sophisticated and more politically polarizing fake content. These ads don’t just defraud individuals—they risk undermining trust in journalism and the democratic process, spreading misleading political content at a critical time ⚠️

How an obscure website with AI-generated articles is spreading false information about election candidates | CBC News During the federal election campaign, many Canadians want information about the personal finances of Canadian party leaders. Here's how one obscure website became one of the most influential sources o...

A site posing as a "Trusted Source for News on the Conservative Canadian Party" is publishing AI-generated articles that are spreading rapidly on social media. AI is enabling bad actors to produce highly convincing, well-written misinformation at scale.
www.cbc.ca/news/canada/...

New @metaculus.bsky.social forecasting Qs contributed by Bright Line Watch to POTUS Predictions series; $15K prize pool

-fed judge impeachment
-abnormal changes to Fed
-weaken/drop filibuster
-criminal charges vs. journos
-bounties for deportations

Forecast here:
www.metaculus.com/tournament/P...

christopher molisanto explaining

"They're saying Tim Walz told Jeff Goldblum about bombing the Who T"