This is great.

Harvard Is Fighting Back. So Can We. The Trump administration wants a battle with civil society.

It's bad. But it won't get better if we don't fight.

Today's Morning Shots from @billkristolbulwark.bsky.social and @eggerdc.bsky.social:

Extract from the URL / PDF posted in the skeet: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/2024-05/Erica%20Chenoweth_2020-005.pdf Summary The “3.5% rule” refers to the claim that no government has withstood a challenge of 3.5% of their population mobilized against it during a peak event. In this brief paper, I address some of the common questions I have received about the 3.5% rule, as well as several updates from more recent work on this topic. Four key takeaways are as follows: • The 3.5% figure is a descriptive statistic based on a sample of historical movements. It is not necessarily a prescriptive one, and no one can see the future. Trying to achieve the threshold without building a broader public constituency does not guarantee success in the future. • The 3.5% participation metric may be useful as a rule of thumb in most cases; however, other factors—momentum, organization, strategic leadership, and sustainability—are likely as important as large-scale participation in achieving movement success and are often precursors to achieving 3.5% participation. • New research suggests that one nonviolent movement, Bahrain in 2011-2014, appears to have decisively failed despite achieving over 6% popular participation at its peak. This suggests that there has been at least one exception to the 3.5% rule, and that the rule is a tendency, rather than a law. • Large peak participation size is associated with movement success. However, most mass nonviolent movements that have succeeded have done so even without achieving 3.5% popular participation.

3/ Though regime change can occur w/as little as 3.5% of the population, these movements must also have...

"momentum, organization, strategic leadership, and sustainability"

--> Get out on the streets AGAIN & AGAIN, every weekend, every opportunity...

www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/defaul...

2/ Erica Chenoweth, who has studied regime change from 1900 to present, discovered that nonviolent protests are TWICE as likely to result in regime change compared to armed conflict

- and the amazing power of everyday people, protesting together

She's posted Q&A here:
bsky.app/profile/chen...

1/ Reminder - research shows most effective way to cause regime change... persistent nonviolent public pressure

- if as little as 3.5% of the population takes to streets AND STAYS THERE, unwanted regimes will often just leave (see @chenoweth.bsky.social)

www.bbc.com/future/artic...

White woman with shoulder-length platinum hair, carrying a "Hands Off Immigrants" sign, mouth wide open in surprise & joy

People carrying "Christians for Ceasefire" banner & Hands Off Palestine / Stop Arming Israel" sogns

People in large Chicago march carrying a "Protect RP" banner with a monarch butterfly on it. Protect RP is a neighborhood ICE watch group.

Woman from the back wearing a red T-shirt that says "Jews Say Stop Arming Israel."

The first is my joyful midchant face when I see my photographer friend Michael Bracey at Chicago's Hands Off march (April 5). The rest are favorite images of other marchers.
#handsoff

This!

Wow! GO TEAM!

💙 DC never disappoints. #handsoff

Just a kid living out his dream

She shouldn’t have to be out in the Kansas City cold, worried about her financial future.

#HandsOff #KansasCity

Massive #HandsOff turn-out in Colorado. I was so overcome with emotion that I just spontaneously started crying... and then laughing. Overwhelmed with gratitude for the sense of solidarity -- here & throughout the nation. Here are just a few of my favorite signs.

A crowd of protesters in raincoats gathers under umbrellas, holding signs advocating for democracy and civil rights in a rainy urban setting. Ukraine flag in the background.

Louisville, Kentucky #3E #Handsoff #FiftyFiftyOne

📷 @bantaart.bsky.social

Absolutely.

A massive crowd of protesters gathers in a public area, holding colorful signs advocating for democracy and social justice.

Portland, Oregon #3E #Handsoff #FiftyFiftyOne

📷 @climatebrad.hillheat.com

This is great! 😂

My favorite sign today: “Old? Pissed off? Welcome to Grantifa!” held by an old guy

They want us to be silent. But we won’t be.
Because we know there’s no cavalry coming.
We are the cavalry.
And we’ll fight in the courts, in the streets and in our communities—because our kids, our jobs and our futures are worth fighting for.
#HandsOff

What Does Hope Look Like? A Saturday Prompt

“Today’s topic could be about fury or madness, sadness or loss, stress & distress, but I’d like to lean into hope. Because even in the darkness, even as the evidence of destruction mounts…this insane chapter is neither monolithic nor will it be never-ending.” www.americaamerica.news/p/what-does-...

Trump administration says emails 'sent in error' ordering Ukrainians to leave the U.S. • Arkansas Advocate Unknown numbers of Ukrainians received emails by mistake from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security saying their humanitarian protected status was being revoked and they would have to leave the…

Unknown numbers of Ukrainians received emails by mistake from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security saying their humanitarian protected status was being revoked and they would have to leave the United States within days, the agency said Friday.

North Carolina judges side with Republican colleague in close Supreme Court race | CNN A North Carolina appeals court sided Friday with the trailing Republican candidate in an extremely close state Supreme Court election, a ruling that could flip the result of the nation’s only 2024 rac...

If your NC vote has been challenged, the appeals court has triggered a 15-day "curing" period. It is imperative that you contact your local Board of Elections or legal representation for the next steps.
The NC GOP is openly trying to steal their state's Supreme Court. Do not let them.

Thanks @stevevladeck.bsky.social for the cite to Abu Ali c. Ashcroft…sounds familiar (the Bush admin brought this guy back)

if Kristin Noem can coordinate a media stunt at the prison he is at then they can get him released.

Democrats: Send in the Shadow Cabinet! To fight Trump, the party needs unconventional thinking and a more aggressive footing in the information wars. Our friends across the pond have a good idea that they can steal.

DNC chair Ken Martin just announced he's creating a "People's Cabinet." Just happens to be 11 days after Michael Tomasky wrote a column suggesting that they do this!

newrepublic.com/article/1930...

US cuts to child labor programmes a ‘blow to core values’ say NGOs EXCLUSIVE: Fairtrade America, International Cocoa Initiative, and The Rainforest Alliance concerned by latest DOGE move to slash US government spending

Why cuts to @ILAB_DOL are a horrible idea....by Fairtrade America, the International Cocoa Initiative and The Rainforest Alliance.... #ChildLabor @alt-dol.altgov.info @theameilee.bsky.social
cocoaradar.com/us-cuts-to-c...

I kind of want to go

Ron Johnson Panics on Air Over Trump’s Disastrous Tariffs Republicans are wigging out about the consequences of Donald Trump’s tariffs.

In an appearance on Fox Business Friday, Senator Ron Johnson said, "I’m getting all kinds of reactions from businesses, farmers in Wisconsin that are highly concerned about what’s happening."

Here’s a tally of the stock market damage: cnb.cx/3EgjVI4

Inside DOGE’s AI Push at the Department of Veterans Affairs A DOGE operative at the Department of Veterans Affairs appears to be trying to use an AI tool to write code for the agency’s systems, among other proposals.

A DOGE operative at the Department of Veterans Affairs appears to be trying to use an AI tool to write code for the agency's systems, among other proposals.

Tomorrow, #April5, we're taking to the streets nationwide to say #HandsOff! We will not let these billionaires illegally gut the federal government and take away the protections and benefits Americans have worked so hard for.

Find an event near you: www.mobilize.us/handsoff