Jim Paulsen

New-era has carried investors during the first three years of this bull market. Could old-era segments assisted by economic policy easing finally take leadership and elongate this bull for a few more years? See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Because the jobs market has been so weak, it's become the most important economic metric. Less than 1% job growth in the last year and a rise in the UR make job market conditions simply unacceptable. See my latest free report "Jobs Rule" @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

You're Misreading This Bull Market | Jim Paulsen on the Major Supports That Are About to Flip Follow Jim at https://paulsenperspectives.substack.com/ In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We explore why confidence is so low despite a bull market, how Fed policy is shaping market dynamics, and where investors might want to focus as the cycle evolves. Topics covered in the episode: * The job market’s pivotal role in driving the economy and Fed decisions * Why recent Fed rate cuts may mark a turning point in market support systems * The narrowness of the bull market and how innovation-driven firms diverge from traditional cycles * Investor confidence, the “misery index,” and recession probability models * How easing may broaden market participation beyond large-cap growth * What “animal spirits” mean for small caps, high beta, and IPOs * The disconnect between inflation, bond yields, and growth measures * Gold, cash, crypto, and tech as “fear assets” in today’s environment * The impact of tariffs on profits, wages, and inflation expectations * Valuations in context: historical perspective and the upward bias of multiples Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and market overview 02:00 Fed easing, inflation, and recession risks 09:00 Bull market without normal supports 17:00 Narrow leadership and innovative companies 23:55 Confidence and the misery index 29:35 Yield curve, recession probabilities, and Fed policy 34:00 Broadening of market participation 37:00 Animal spirit stocks and small caps 38:00 Inflation, bond yields, and resource unemployment 43:20 Copper-gold ratio and yields 45:10 The role of gold in portfolios 50:00 Cash, crypto, and tech as defensive assets 54:00 Tariffs, inflation, and profit margins 59:00 Inflation persistence vs. wage growth 01:01:10 Valuations and the upward bias in multiples 01:07:00 Closing thoughts and takeaways

I recently had the great opportunity to work with Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau from the Excess Return Podcast for our monthly discuss. I hope you have some time to Please watch the discussion. Thanks! www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...

See my reserach @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

I suspect the disinflationary force from weakness in real economic activities will more than offset any additional inflationary force from tariffs. The chart below shows the average growth of 7 key metrics relative to CPI inflation. See my full report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

US Confidence has been depressed since 2022 primarily because of chronic recession fears tied to an inverted YC. The Fed is finally easing and recession probabilities declining. Thus, confidence & stocks should rise in the coming year. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Since the Fed has finally opened the basement door, my latest piece asks, "how low can bond yields go"? The CPI inflation rate, resource unemployment, and Dr. Copper as well as several other strong historical relationships all say bond yields remain too high. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

A Fed ease will be BIG for the stock market. This is the only Bull market in post-war history which has lived its entire existence with negative excess financial liquidity growth and with an inverted yield curve. This is about to change and #stocks will love it! paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Economic Capacity is oddly expanding as the recovery matures. Labor & factory capacity are growing, policy capacity (e.g., YC is still inverted, excess money growth is still low), private balance sheet capacity & liquidity remain immense. See my latest report at: paulsenperspectives.substack.com

See my latest report "It's Time to Discard the 2% Inflation Obsession". As the charts below demonstrate, there is nothing magical about 2% inflation for real GDP, jobs, or real profits & income growth. For further insights, click the link below. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The fearful fuel underlying the gold rally is finally starting to fade and the price of gold is increasingly at risk. See the relative price chart below. Could its relative price return to its range since 1980? Click the link for my latest report "Golden Risk" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Is there really any mystery why homebuyer affordability has risen and stayed so high? The chart below offers one compelling reason. Affordability may also why consumer confidence is so low. A Fed easing could improve much on both Main and Wall. See my work at PaulsenPerspectives.Substack.com

Since 1970, intl. stocks have only had 3 secular leadership cycles and each of these coincided with a secular decline in the US dollar. Has a 4th secular decline in the dollar begun making the case for a secular overweight in intl. stocks? See my latest at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Health care stocks have been a dismal investment during this bull market. But relative to real drug prices, the S&P 500 health care sector finally trades in its cheapest quartile for the first time in 15 years. See my latest report for all the details at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

If the Fed begins easing will recession fears again rise? Perhaps the better question is 'can' the economy recess? Many characteristics are evident today which rarely are seen at the start of past recessions like the two examples below. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Excess economic liquidity divided by the cash hoarding/dumping indicator has demonstrated a close relationship with inflation and yields since 1960. If inflation risk is overblown, stocks & bonds may have another leg left. For the details, See my latest report @
paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The S&P 500 trades at a premium to its post-war trendline of 43%, higher than 93% of the time. However, much of the broader US stock market continues to sell below respective trendlines. See my latest report for the implications of the narrowest bull since WWII.
paulsen.perspectives.substack.com

US economic surprise indices measure real growth & inflation momentum. As the chart below shows, today's environment looks much more like "weak growth" than it does "stagflation". See my latest report "A Pictorial Look at Inflation" at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

My latest "A Small Company Story" considers whether the Fed has been tightening during a split US economy since 2022-a recession for small companies and an ongoing recovery for large companies. Is this about to end with a Fed ease and small leadership? paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Whether the Fed cuts rates or not, monetary policy is starting to change its stripes. Excess real liquidity growth has turned positive this quarter for the first time in this bull market! As shown on the chart, this is good news for stock investors! paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The recent jobs report implies U.S. real economic growth has slowed significantly. Are inflation surprises (reflecting inflationary momentum) suggesting CPI inflation is more likely to drop than rise? Are the Fed's growth & inflation stories both falling apart? paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Bear market fears have risen since Friday's jobs report. However, at least since 1950, the US has never had a bear market when confidence has been as low as it is today. If worried about a lurking bear, pessimism may be the best kryptonite. See my latest report at paulsenperspectives.substack.com

For the first time since 1960, economic policy has remained contractionary (i.e., TPS below the 50th percentile) throughout the entire bull run. This has led to a very narrow bull which could broaden if TPS rises above 50% -- i.e., if the Fed eases. See my latest@ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

The heated Trump/Powell debate perhaps is because since 1970, fiscal & monetary policy have never been this out of sync! Fiscal force is currently stronger than 90% of the time while monetary force is more restrictive than 80% of the time? See my latest@ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

Really bsky.app/profile/mich..., Solid?
I don't find 1% real growth solid or calming, nor does it seem to offer much room to be patient?

The heated Trump/Powell debate perhaps is because since 1970, fiscal & monetary policy have never been this out of sync! Fiscal force is currently stronger than 90% of the time while monetary force is more restrictive than 80% of the time? See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

YouTube video by Excess Returns Everyone Is Braced for a Crash. That's Why It Won't Happen | Jim Paulsen on What Comes Next

Earlier this week, I had the great pleasure of joining @jjcarbonneeau and @practicalquant
on the Excess Returns Podcast. Thanks Jack & Justin for having me! We had a lively discussion, and I hope you have a listen. paulsenperspectives.substack.com

youtu.be/Vsfp9Um1l0k

Fear of Bond Vigilantes is back. However, the relationship between govt. deficits and real bond yields changed in the last 30 years. Mostly, real yields now decline when the deficit/GDP ratio rises. The Vigilante died some time ago. See my latest @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

YouTube video by TheStreet Stocks to buy if the Fed eases monetary policy

I had the pleasure of joining Caroline Woods
at the TheStreet. We visited about stock market narrowness, an abundance of cheapness, and a potential leadership change for stocks. Please take a listen. Thanks Caroline for having me! paulsenperspectives.substack.com

www.youtube.com/watch?v=duNI...

Corporate profits have remained weak causing a very narrow bull market run. However, if the Fed finally eases and broadens profits to the middle 2 quartiles, bull market leadership may shift toward value and small cap stocks. See my latest report @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com

This year, consumer sentiment among the rich has collapsed relative to sentiment among the poor. While this sounds concerning, as the chart below highlights, it's actually been a good sign for future stock market performance. Sign up for a free trial of my work @ paulsenperspectives.substack.com