See here for implantation:
bsky.app/profile/dgir...
See here for implantation:
bsky.app/profile/dgir...
📢 PSA for #EconSky & #RStats:
The GitHub repo for our Local Projections Difference-in-Differences (LP-DiD) paper now has example scripts for R!
If you're looking to implement LP-DiD in R, these are for you
Here: github.com/danielegirar...
#Econometrics #CausalInference
@arindube.bsky.social
📢 PSA for #EconSky & #RStats:
The GitHub repo for our Local Projections Difference-in-Differences (LP-DiD) paper now has example scripts for R!
If you're looking to implement LP-DiD in R, these are for you
Here: github.com/danielegirar...
#Econometrics #CausalInference
@arindube.bsky.social
About Kevin Warsh
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-bad-heir...
Second, inflation is a choice, and the Fed’s track record under Chairman Jerome Powell is one of unwise choices. The Fed should re-examine its great mistakes that led to the great inflation. It should abandon the dogma that inflation is caused when the economy grows too much and workers get paid too much. Inflation is caused when government spends too much and prints too much. Money on Wall Street is too easy, and credit on Main Street is too tight. The Fed’s bloated balance sheet, designed to support the biggest firms in a bygone crisis era, can be reduced significantly. That largesse can be redeployed in the form of lower interest rates to support households and small and medium-size businesses.
A quick take on Warsh.
In terms of ideology and theory, at first glance he looks like a fairly standard pre-2008 'hawk' but he's perhaps closer to 80s monetarism: he thinks inflation is caused by government spending and money printing. 1/n
www.wsj.com/opinion/the-...
What’s so misguided about the formulation “authoritarianism is here, it’s just unevenly distributed,” which I have heard from Ezra Klein and others, it’s that it misses the point: that’s true of authoritarianism *everywhere*.
25.01.2026 20:29 — 👍 102 🔁 30 💬 1 📌 2This is good, addressing people directly, including those who have supported Trump
25.01.2026 20:40 — 👍 8 🔁 3 💬 0 📌 0Worth remembering when looking at the horrific scenes in the US right now that both Reform and the Tories have pledged to bring in ICE-style organisations to the UK if they win power
24.01.2026 22:33 — 👍 3208 🔁 1516 💬 98 📌 62
Seven House democrats that voted for ICE funding
The ICE Seven
25.01.2026 09:32 — 👍 195 🔁 59 💬 11 📌 8NORWAY PM: I HAVE REPEATEDLY CLEARLY EXPLAINED TO TRUMP THAT IT IS AN INDEPENDENT COMMITTEE THAT AWARDS THE NOBEL PEACE PRIZE
19.01.2026 09:50 — 👍 2004 🔁 310 💬 72 📌 153
Losing my mind at the Dems with their billionaire backers and powerful friends who have come up with the brilliant strategy that the party should adopt the policy positions of the avg MAGA voter — apparently ignoring that independents and swing voters even exist. Is this what $40 million gets you??
18.01.2026 20:49 — 👍 2962 🔁 537 💬 184 📌 141
Gallego ("moderate" Dem) is going with "ICE needs to be totally torn down" (not "reform and retrain"). This is a pivot point for the country on immigration. You have been seeing this in the data for a while, and now officials are snapping to the public opinion www.gelliottmorris.com/p/ice-is-a-7...
18.01.2026 20:05 — 👍 4701 🔁 1112 💬 134 📌 107
Israel continues its war on healthcare for Palestinians www.nytimes.com/2026/01/17/w...
17.01.2026 12:58 — 👍 32 🔁 27 💬 1 📌 0Until recently, much of the evidence on these effects was at the subnational level and within country. I discuss three papers using novel cross-country evidence on the effects of national election outcomes (presidential and parliamentary elections), which are likely more consequential (14/n).
13.01.2026 13:48 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
In the second part of the talk, I discuss recent work on the economic effects of elections through two main forces, representation and agency (13/n).
13.01.2026 13:48 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
The first is “Partisan Shocks and Financial Markets: Evidence from Close National Elections” (AEJ: Applied) by @dgirardi.bsky.social. Using a cross-country RDD, Girardi finds that left-wing electoral victories cause large short-term decreases in stock market valuation (15/n).
13.01.2026 13:49 — 👍 1 🔁 1 💬 1 📌 0
A week ago, I gave the “Recent Developments in the Political Economy of Elections and Democracy” lecture at the 2026 AEA @assameeting.bsky.social !
Video: www.aeaweb.org/webcasts/202...
Slides: www.vincentpons.org/recent-devel...
Thread with the TL;DR of my talk below.
The immigration doom loop in full swing.
Chasing the xenophobes is a doomed strategy both economically *and* politically.
(1/3)
archive.ph/pyVLg
A new paper by George Borjas—who served this past year in the Trump White House designing some of its anti-immigration policies—claims to display evidence of ideological bias among researchers who study immigration.
doi.org/10.1126/scia...
🧵 Thread—>
A headline for the ages www.politico.eu/article/fran...
09.01.2026 11:14 — 👍 176 🔁 86 💬 15 📌 9
The smear campaign against Mustapha Kharbouch -- falsely accused of the Brown shooting and MIT murder by powerful politicians, pundits and plutocrats -- is a prime example of how pervasive racism has become. It's also a story largely ignored by the mainstream media www.thenation.com/article/poli...
22.12.2025 17:06 — 👍 699 🔁 284 💬 6 📌 12Ashamed of this government
21.12.2025 22:06 — 👍 12 🔁 3 💬 1 📌 0
Remarkable how little coverage this is getting. www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/12...
21.12.2025 22:15 — 👍 18 🔁 11 💬 2 📌 1Some observers at the time thought that Reaganism would be economically successful in bringing back high growth (they thought the crisis was due to too strong workers) but politically a failure (people wouldn't accept the regressive aspect). The opposite occurred and I don't think we fully know why.
20.12.2025 17:07 — 👍 0 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
A brave survivor speaks on the record.
Sami al-Saei, 46, used to be a freelance journalist in the occupied West Bank.
He was arrested after working with reporters to arrange interviews with armed groups and was detained without being charged for 16 months.
bbc.com/news/article...
For more information:
github.com/danielegirar...
The -lpdid- command implements the Local Projections Difference-in-Differences estimators presented in @arindube.bsky.social , Girardi, Jorda’ & Taylor (2025) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Coauthored with @alexanderbusch.bsky.social
Key new features of LPDID:
* New [oneoff] suboption to deal with 'shock' treatments lasting 1 period by construction (eg, hurricanes)
* Reweighted estimator w/ covariates (or additional FEs) now *much* faster
* Reweighted estimator w/ covariates now compatible with wild bootstrap standard errors
Public Service Announcement:
🚨New updated version (1.0.2) of -lpdid- STATA command now available🚨
Update the command by typing
ssc install lpdid, replace
directly in STATA
Then look at the updated help file
help lpdid
See below for the key new features...
1. Less skilled labor is abundant. 2. Skilled emigration is a brain drain. 3. Development substitutes for migration. 4. Migration substitutes for failing development, but doesn't cause development.
The International Monetary Fund asked me to review the literature on migration economics to draw lessons for low-income countries.
In a new @iza.org paper, I argue that policy for the 21st century must discard four outdated ideas.
www.iza.org/publications...
🧵 thread—>
For more information:
github.com/danielegirar...
The -lpdid- command implements the Local Projections Difference-in-Differences estimators presented in @arindube.bsky.social , Girardi, Jorda’ & Taylor (2025) onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...
Coauthored with @alexanderbusch.bsky.social