There is now also caseworker guidance, setting out the prioritisation process:

• Stage 1: high-grant and high-volume nationalities
• Stage 2: connection to the UK
• Stage 3: random selection of Expression of Interest application

Connection to the UK means having previously been lawfully in the UK.

Thoughtful and insightful new piece on national identity and cohesion by my colleague @parth0.bsky.social for the FT

The Southport riots were not just a moment of disorder, they were a warning. When shared spaces disappear, people turn inward and become isolated. To resist division, we must rebuild places where people meet and find common ground.
Read more at ippr.org/articles/places-to-come-together

Tackling small boat crossings means more than just going after smugglers. The government must also offer safe and legal alternatives so people aren’t forced to risk their lives crossing the Channel. @marleymorris.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk

New stats from DWP show just under 84% of people on Universal Credit are UK citizens.

Of the remainder, most are on the EU settlement scheme.

Otherwise, only tiny numbers are on UC without being settled in the UK, primarily because they have no recourse to public funds.

🔔OUT TODAY🔔

Our new report presents UK-wide evidence to the Independent Commission on Community & Cohesion

It finds a troubling powder keg of low political trust, polarisation, online vulnerability and cost of living concerns that risk sparking into further unrest if left unaddressed

I guess new trade costs elsewhere could encourage a shift to these services. (And if graduate route is seen as a direct result of Brexit, this helped increase education exports!)

Not sure there’s much evidence that UK services exports have performed better *as a result of* Brexit?

Excited to have launched our latest report today on Universal Opportunity.

It’s clear that the UK has a problem with social mobility and young people are paying a high price.

We call for a series of recommendations so that every young person can build a decent life.

Statement of changes to the Immigration Rules: HC 997, 1 July 2025 Statement of changes to the Immigration Rules published on 1 July 2025.

New immigration rules today reveal increase in general salary threshold for Skilled Worker route will be £41,700, up from £38,700 previously.

www.gov.uk/government/p...

New immigration reforms include an interim Temporary Shortage List, covering occupations below degree-level which govt consider important for its industrial strategy.

It's an interesting list, including lab technicians, authors, fashion designers, business sales executives, builders and decorators.

Clearly much more to do and there are legitimate challenges on how the government could go further on ensuring parliamentary scrutiny.

But this sets out a strong direction for the UK's trade agenda following the deals with India, the US and the EU earlier this year.

Towards a UK trade strategy | IPPR The volume of global goods flows is back on the rise after a difficult 2023 caused by inflation and interest rate hikes. But with the return of President T

There's also a welcome focus on resilient trade.

As IPPR has called for, the strategy says the government will strengthen our trade defences and consider new powers to respond to deliberate economic pressure against the UK.

www.ippr.org/articles/tow...

A core message is that UK should look beyond FTAs and think about a wider set of trade policy tools - from digital deals to clean energy agreements.

At IPPR we've argued similarly that we need a modernised approach to trade agreements and more dynamic approaches to cooperation.

The strategy argues we need to be frank and hard-headed about our strengths, particularly in services, and to lean into future opportunities in digital trade, AI, and clean energy.

It rejects idea that we have to choose between EU, US and China.

UK Trade Strategy Strategy document setting out the government’s plans to maximise trade opportunities now and in the future.

The trade strategy out today risks getting lost in the news agenda, but it actually reads v well (especially for a govt strategy!)

There's a recognition that a rethink of trade policy is needed in a rapidly changing geopolitical context, where protectionism is resurgent

www.gov.uk/government/p...

A core message is that UK should look beyond FTAs and think about a wider set of trade policy tools - from digital deals to clean energy agreements.

At IPPR we've argued similarly that we need a modernised approach to trade agreements and more dynamic approaches to cooperation.

The strategy argues we need to be frank and hard-headed about our strengths, particularly in services, and to lean into future opportunities in digital trade, AI, and clean energy.

It rejects idea that we have to choose between EU, US and China.

Today’s industrial strategy made some clear strategic choices for the future direction of the UK economy. @ippr.org found that there are opportunities for the UK in three key clean technology industries, all of which are featured in the strategy 1/8

Getting the child poverty strategy we need: A co-produced agenda for change | IPPR Any credible child poverty strategy must act directly to put more money into parents’ pockets. This starts with the removal of the two-child limit and bene

🤝| NEW REPORT: The government has an opportunity to turn the tide on child poverty. Our joint roadmap with @changingrealities.bsky.social‬ & @cpaguk.bsky.social‬ sets out what a serious strategy must include. Shaped by lived experience, grounded in policy evidence.
www.ippr.org/articles/get... (1/3)

3 weeks after the immigration white paper, MPs have been unable to secure any more info on issues like
- when is the consultation?
- what criteria would there be for < 10 years? (Would that be 5 years?)
- what % might be 5/10 years?
- when might this change come in?
- Would it be phased in?
Etc

Not yet settled? Assessing the government’s new policy on indefinite leave to remain | IPPR The government outlined wide-ranging reforms to work, study and family routes, with the intention of bringing down net migration following a post-pandemic

New @ippr.org analysis on govt plan to extend qualifying period for settlement from 5 to 10 years.

- Around 1.7m people already in UK could be affected.
- Evidence says restricting settlement could inhibit integration and earnings.
- Public do not support 10 year wait.

www.ippr.org/articles/not...

The immigratiion stats include updated inadmissibility figures for the first time in a while. This is the process that was supposed to replace Dublin system. It has been pointless. Since the start of 2021 over 100,000 claims have been considered as potentially inadmissible with 33 people removed.

Net migration is falling, the job now is about balance - the government must consider how it manages numbers without harming the economy or public services.

@marleymorris.bsky.social‬ responds to today's migration figures. Read more here: www.ippr.org/media-office...

Net migration has fallen sharply as expected - down to 431,000 in 2024, a 50% fall from 2023. This is driven by:

- Tighter scrutiny of care visa sponsors.
- Stopping students and care workers from bringing dependants.
- Higher salary thresholds.
- Rising student emigration.

New net migration figures, published by ONS tomorrow at 9.30am, are certain to show a big fall in numbers, probably by over 250k.
But new polling by @focaldata.bsky.social for @britishfuture.bsky.social finds this will surprise 90% of the public, most of whom are expecting numbers to go up. [1/6]

UK Visa Scams Squeeze Millions From Would-Be Care Workers Recent changes to immigration policy won’t do anything for people who’ve been exploited while seeking jobs in the UK. But they may worsen the care-worker shortage.

For the last year, I’ve been working on an investigation that’s left me staggered. It’s a damning indictment of the UK’s care sector, & the migration system which has allowed millions of ££s to be plundered from communities in developing countries. Free link: www.bloomberg.com/news/feature...

I was surprised to see in today's ONS figures that UK goods exports suddenly rose 3.5% in Q1/25.

Then I found this was almost entirely driven by a surge in UK aluminium exports to the US ahead of Trump's tariffs.

This alone pushed UK GDP growth by ~0.2 ppts (out of 0.7 ppts total in Q1). Amazing.

📣 OUT NOW – Asylum Management Centres: A new approach to tackle small boat crossings

FGF report proposes new asylum centres in France to reduce boat arrivals.

✍️ Beth Gardiner-Smith, Snr Associate & fmr Yvette Cooper advisor & Emily Graham, Associate

www.futuregovernanceforum.co.uk/resource/asy...

Brand new data on visa holders' earnings:

→ Skilled worker visa holders earning median £56.6k
→ Big variation in earnings by industry: lowest in hospitality, highest in IT/finance
→ Family of British citizens/residents had median £20k, varying by nationality but not as much as for work visas
🧵