Ah interesting, thanks Jon. Were the FR caseworkers moved into different roles at same time as the pause or is that a separate change?

And as @sonial77.bsky.social has highlighted, we've seen a dramatic fall in the grant rate of Syrian asylum claims following fall of Assad - from 98% in 2024 to 9% in 2025

The number of refugee family reunion visa grants in the last quarter of 2025 nearly halved compared to the previous quarter, following the restrictions introduced in September.

The number of people claiming asylum in 2025 was just over 100,000, slightly lower than the previous year but still high.

This was driven by small boat arrivals – including from Eritrea, Afghanistan, Iran and Sudan – and asylum applications from people who previously held a work or study visa.

There has also been a slight fall in hotel use, but numbers in asylum hotels are still stubbornly high.

This is most likely down to large numbers of asylum claims stuck at appeal stage, prolonging people's stay in hotels.

Some headline thoughts on asylum stats out today:

Government has made good progress on asylum backlog. Numbers have fallen from around 62,000 cases in September to around 49,000 cases at the end of December 2025. This is now well below half the peak in summer 2023.

Forget Jim Ratcliffe’s half-apology: to speak of immigrants ‘colonising’ Britain is wrong and sinister | Sunder Katwala He fused an echo of Enoch Powell with the spirit of the far right’s great replacement theory. This is no way to progress a humane migration debate, says Sunder Katwala, director of British Future

I wrote for the Guardian about why Jim Ratcliffe's talk of Britain being "colonised" by immigrants crosses the line between legitimate debate and inflammatory rhetoric. It fuses echoes of Powellism with great replacement conspiracies of "civilisational erasure"
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Far from settled: The government’s ‘earned settlement’ consultation | IPPR While the measures have received surprisingly little attention compared to some of the government’s other eye-catching asylum reforms, their impacts will b

Read the full analysis here: www.ippr.org/articles/far...

New @ippr.org analysis today finds that around 1.35m already on routes to settlement will face a longer default waiting period before they can apply for permanent residence under Home Office plans.

Just over 300,000 are children, mostly dependants of workers.

300,000 children face 10-year wait for settled status under UK plans, says IPPR Thinktank analysis says proposed ‘earned settlement’ changes could trap families in prolonged insecurity

New analysis @ippr.org that 300,000 children currently in Britain will be adversely affected by government’s settlement reforms. The government consultation closes on Thursday. Dozens of MPs are concerned that impacts to their constituents & families feel unfair
www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...

A Fairer Pathway to Settlement: statement and accompanying consultation on earned settlement (accessible)

The government’s consultation on its proposed settlement proposals closes on Thursday. Over 130,000 responses had been received with a week to go & 232,000 people and 107,000 people signed two petitions about this debated in Westminster Hall on Mondsy
www.gov.uk/government/c...

Oh yes! Though I guess he'd prefer it not to be named after him...

I think Kit Malthouse would feel short-changed if it was called the 'Kohler concept'...! kitmalthouse.com/2023/a-human...

PM’s welcome words on cohesion must be followed with national action - British Future The PM has set out a vision for social cohesion. We now need to see a long-term plan to turn the vision into reality, writes Sunder Katwala.

Keir Starmer's speech on cohesion is being overshadowed by media interest in the Peter Mandelson appointment.

I have written about why these substantive arguments about identity + how we strengthen cohesion matter in my @britishfuture.bsky.social blog

www.britishfuture.org/pms-welcome-...

PM’s welcome words on cohesion must be followed with national action - British Future The PM has set out a vision for social cohesion. We now need to see a long-term plan to turn the vision into reality, writes Sunder Katwala.

"It is welcome, if overdue, that the PM has set out a positive vision for cohesion... What needs to follow is a clear plan to turn these words into sustained action," writes our @sundersays.bsky.social www.britishfuture.org/pms-welcome-...

Low-carbon technologies like solar and batteries save people money. Solar panels with an export guarantee can save households nearly £600. 🧵

🚨 | NEW REPORT: Global shocks are exposing how fragile UK supply chains really are - driving up costs across the economy. Our latest analysis shows why resilient clean energy supply chains must be a priority, and what government should do next 👇 www.ippr.org/articles/res...

📰 @marleymorris.bsky.social spoke to the Financial Times about these trends and their potential political and fiscal impact 👇 www.ft.com/content/a17f...

Launch UK-EU youth experience scheme with initial 44,000 cap, says cross-party commission A new cross-party report recommends the UK and EU should launch the UK’s largest and most generous scheme to restore opportunities for young people who have been denied them by Brexit.

Andrew Lewin MP is chairing a UKBTC business and trade commission which proposes a design for a UK-EU reciprocal capped youth mobility scheme, proposing 44,000 each way as a viable starting proposition. Details from Best for Britain
www.bestforbritain.org/launch_yes_w...

Our Children, Our Future: Tackling Child Poverty Strategy document setting out the government’s ambitious decade long mission to tackle the drivers of child poverty across the UK.

It’s encouraging to see the government finally acknowledge NRPF in the Child Poverty Strategy and commit to supporting vulnerable children regardless of immigration status.
This is a significant shift and long overdue.

www.gov.uk/government/p...

The Child Poverty strategy includes some welcome measures to support migrant children including providing guidance for councils on s17 of the Children Act and gathering better data. Wider measure to limit the use of unsuitable and poor quality temporary accom should also help.

Crucially, govt will need to think about how its earned settlement policy interacts with child poverty.

For instance, extending wait to settlement for parents who claim benefits could deter destitute families from seeking help.

Careful consideration needed for earned settlement consultation.

Making the Child Poverty Strategy work for migrant families | IPPR At the time of writing, the UK government is preparing to launch a new national strategy to tackle child poverty. Weeks into being newly elected, prime min

There is a lot more to do. My colleague @amreenqureshi.bsky.social sets out in her recent blog 5 more steps, including:

- Expanding access to free childcare

- Simplifying the process for lifting NRPF when people are destitute

- Refreshing the list of public funds

www.ippr.org/articles/mak...

Our Children, Our Future: Tackling Child Poverty Strategy document setting out the government’s ambitious decade long mission to tackle the drivers of child poverty across the UK.

The strategy commits to issuing guidance to local authorities on their statutory duties to support children in need (a recent IPPR recommendation).

It also outlines plans to improve the quality of data on NRPF, something IPPR has long highlighted as a key challenge.

www.gov.uk/government/p...

It's very good to see the government explicitly acknowledge 'no recourse to public funds' in their child poverty strategy.

The strategy commits the government to supporting vulnerable children regardless of immigration status.

Top Ten Problems in the Evidence Base for Public Debate and Policy-Making on Immigration in the UK in 2025 - Migration Observatory This report identifies gaps in data about migration that prevent policymakers and the public from understanding its impacts and the implications of policy changes.

Today's finally the day! @migobs.bsky.social has published its mega report on migration data gaps.

Whatever people's politics, we should all recognise that effective policy making needs good data. And there are areas where we're still falling short.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

Net negative migration in 2026 would be quite a shocker!

A ‘paradigm shift’ in asylum and immigration policy? | IPPR The reforms – which were the culmination of years of increasingly restrictive policies – were designed to signal Denmark was no longer a welcoming country

'Paradigm shift' - my take on last week's asylum and settlement proposals.

Home secretary is right to focus on asylum reform, particularly on appeals.

But risk is that this agenda doesn't deliver on tackling small boats, while undermining integration in the process.

www.ippr.org/articles/a-p...

Why Immigration Policy Is Hard: And How to Make It Better Why Immigration Policy Is Hard: And How to Make It Better, Immigration policy will never satisfy everyone. It’s a stubborn fact that more people will want to move to high-income countries than residen...

Shameless self-publicity. My new book "Why Immigration Policy Is Hard And How To Make It Better" is out.
www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?b...

Despite this, the initial decision backlog is coming down - decision-making has really sped up.

But this is not translating into reduced hotel use. Most likely this is because of growing numbers of people stuck in asylum appeals.