Peter Atwater

Investing in Era of a Few Good Men He loves me. He loves me not.

With many now awakening to the rise of nationalist capitalism, I have some thoughts on what makes today's era such a challenge for investors.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/invest...

With CEOs piling up on the front steps of the White House, I suppose it is fitting that a group of fawns is called a "parcel."

Golden Share 2.0

What did you order? Normalcy?!

Exclusive | Billions Flow to New Hedge Funds Focused on AI-Related Bets A 23-year-old former OpenAI researcher quickly amassed more than $1.5 billion for a firm he called a “brain trust on AI.”

Because who among us at age 23 and with no prior investment experience didn't manage $1.5 billion of other people's money...
www.wsj.com/finance/inve...

If things don't work out with Dan, you could also consider this

As we move around the Confidence Quadrant not only do our feelings change, but so does how we think, what we want, what we do, and even the stories we tell ourselves and others.

So, where are you this morning?

Look closely and you can see shareholder primacy moving further and further back in line.

Fawning isn't a taking of control; it is an acknowledgement that control has been taken.

I used to talk about the K-Shaped Economy in terms of the arms and legs of the K.

Given how extreme the economic divide has become, I think the only accurate way to use the term now is by referring to the fingers and toes of the K.

There is little in between.

FWIW - From a behavioral perspective, it's not "a little bit like" but identical.

As I wrote earlier this week, fawning is "a standard operating procedure for those in the Passenger Seat seeking to achieve and sustain beneficiary status" of a dominant leader.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/visual...

Opinion | The economy is cracking. This trend is most alarming. The U.S. economy is growing ever more reliant on top earners. It’s risky — and tough for the middle class.

"The economy is increasingly dependent on a small sliver of superstar companies and wealthy consumers to stay afloat...

From @byheatherlong.bsky.social, who was the first to report on the "K-Shaped Recovery" that is now an extreme "K-Shaped Economy."

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

Something something unstoppable...

Wow. I think Mr. Atwater @peteratwater.bsky.social has a saying about media following mood. Is that a bell I hear ringing?

There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...

Visualizing Decision Making: Submission We live in an era of dominant, independent, nationalist leaders. Erdogan in Turkey.

"What on the surface may appear to be a regaining of control may be anything but that. Moreover, once control is ceded, the certainty gained in exchange may be fleeting."

My thoughts on how to visualize and think through acts of submission.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/visual...

As companies mandate a return to in-office work, they would be wise to reflect on the certainty and control many employees gained from home-from-home.

For many, back to office equates to an increase in powerlessness and uncertainty.

LOL - "a spirited turnaround"

“Unsinkable retail investors” www.nytimes.com/2025/08/05/b... ht @peteratwater.bsky.social

"Runaway Valuation"

To the journalists writing about today's Tesla news, just a reminder that submission comes in two forms. We comply with the demands of institutions. We obey the commands of individuals.

If the second seems more extreme, consider the notable difference between non-compliance and disobedience.

Someone might want to send a copy of "The Confidence Map" to the board of a certain electric car manufacturer.

"Finance as entertainment"

Of late, it feels like our K-Shape Economy has narrowed and morphed into an AI-Shaped Economy with overabundance and overinvestment inside it and scarcity and financial strain outside it.

Rather than succumb to our low confidence stories, we need to look at them as mile markers that simply identify where we are on the Confidence Quadrant.

Keep at it, and they will soon be behind us.

A Sunday morning thought.

There may be no more powerful chains to hold us back than the stories we tell ourselves when our confidence is low.

What we miss is that they are reflective, not predictive. They always fall away as our confidence rises.

Something Something K-Shaped Economy...

cc: @kairyssdal.bsky.social

Seems like a good moment to reshare that it is always the stories we attach to objective data that matter.

"one of the largest start-up cheques ever"

There's a sentiment indicator in here somewhere...