AliVaez.bsky.social

Told @RFERL: By empowering the IRGC, Khamanei militarized the country’s politics and by co-opting the clerical establishment, he delegitimized it.
www.rferl.org/amp/khamenei...

US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN; TEHRAN FIRES BACK, EXPLOSIONS ACROSS REGION aje.news/p4rw7y?updat...

US-Iran talks in Geneva, latest Trump administration news | CNN edition.cnn.com/us/live-news...

Told @AFP: Larijani is a true insider, a canny operator, familiar with how the system operates and familiar with the supreme leader's inclinations.

www.barrons.com/news/the-vet...

The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War | International Crisis Group In nearly five decades of mutual antagonism, the U.S. and Iran have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to avertin...

NEW STATEMENT | The U.S. and Iran Can Still Avoid a War

Both have never been so close to a major war. Escalation risks make any conflict scenario perilous for all concerned. A narrow path to averting war exists, but time is of the essence.

www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...

For Iran’s Rulers, Refusing U.S. Demands Is a Risk Worth Taking The government in Tehran sees capitulating to Washington’s demands on uranium enrichment and ballistic missiles as riskier to its survival than going to war, analysts say.

Told @NYTimes: The Iranians don’t believe that once they capitulate, the U.S. will alleviate the pressure. They believe that would only encourage the U.S. to go for the jugular.

President Trump says Iran’s supreme leader “should be very worried now.” -NBC News

Trump Warns Iran With Military Muscle, but Risks a Regional War

“Trump likes low-cost, high-impact operations. On Iran, he could do high impact, but not at a low cost. That’s why he has been hesitating.” @alivaez.bsky.social tells the NTY

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within | International Crisis Group Once again, Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval and, as on past occasions, the state has responded with brute force. This time, however, U.S. threats of military intervention create additional da...

NEW STATEMENT | Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within

Iran is experiencing nationwide upheaval, and the state has responded with brute force. U.S. threats of military intervention create additional dangers.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

NEW UPDATE | On Our Radar

🔴 Demonstrations in Iran have grown into nationwide anti-regime unrest.

🔴 Lebanon says it has passed a milestone in disarming Hizbollah.

🔴 Provisional results for CAR are out after the general elections.

www.crisisgroup.org/global/our-r...

Iran’s troubled regime cracks down hard as Trump ratchets up pressure | CNN As furious protests enter their third week and bring Iran to the precipice of change, the country’s theocratic government is trying to survive by harshly cracking down on the widening demonstrations.

“At least having their own streets under their control is what they see as essential for their own survival, even if it invites a US strike.”

@alivaez.bsky.social speaking with @cnn.com on protests in Iran.

edition.cnn.com/2026/01/11/m...

🇮🇷 Failing to implement environmentally sound policies will only deepen the crisis, further imperilling both Baluchestan’s fragile ecosystems and its already vulnerable communities.

Our latest report explains why: www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

📈 Rising temperatures, sporadic rainfall, over-extraction and poor planning have converged to make water scarcity a major crisis in Sistan and #Baluchestan – and an increasingly pressing concern across #Iran.

🇮🇷 #Baluchestan has been plagued by neglect and a sense of exclusion and growing grievances have at times manifested in unrest and militancy.

Growing water scarcity could deepen public discontent in Iran’s semi-arid region.

NEW OP-ED | How a Historic Israel-Iran Non-aggression Pact Could Change the Middle East

The only sustainable solution is a diplomatic one. Donald Trump should seal the deal.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

“Iran Is Down, But It Is Not Out” The 12-day war has weakened the regime in Tehran and limited its options. This increases Iran’s incentives to become a nuclear weapon state, argues Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. But ther...

"A dash toward nuclear weapons in a secret facility is still something that Iran can do. It has the knowledge, the material, and the equipment needed. And without inspections, the world will be blinded to that possibility."

More from @crisisgroup.org's Ali Vaez: ip-quarterly.com/en/iran-down...

NEW STATEMENT | How Trump and Tehran Can Find an Exit from an Escalating War

As Israel pummels Iran, the U.S. is weighing direct involvement. Washington should look to diplomacy, while Tehran should offer meaningful incentives for it to do so.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Friday, May 16, 11 AM ET: Join us for a timely conversation with @alivaez.bsky.social, Iran Program Director at @crisisgroup.org, and DAWN's @sarahleah1.bsky.social, on the shifting dynamics of nuclear policy in the Middle East on the heels of Trump's trip.

On X Spaces: twitter.com/i/spaces/1Zk...

Live updates: Trump says U.S. will end sanctions on Syria ‘to give them a chance at greatness’ The four-day trip, President Donald Trump’s first overseas tour since his reelection, is expected to focus on business deals and investments from the region.

Wow.

Will be looking for US follow through due to possibility of some in the administration seeking to slow roll this.

Erdogan and MBS seemed to have played key roles.

wapo.st/43aWW9R

Astonishing news on Trump’s lifting of Syria sanctions. Much still depends on follow through and implementation and there is a Congressional piece as well, but I would never have predicted this; I’m sure some members of his administration feel the same.

The Trump Administration’s Approach Could Make or Break U.N. Reform As Trump continues to decouple the U.S. from parts of the U.N. system, his concerns about the world organization are actually shared by many.

@richardgowan1.bsky.social examines how the Trump administration’s approach could make or break UN reforms in @wpr.bsky.social.

www.worldpoliticsreview.com/trump-united...

13/13 When POTUS first took office, we @CrisisGroup argued he was well-positioned to improve JCPOA. Much has changed, but underlying proposition hasn't: Calibrating means & ends - and with necessary compromises on Tehran's part - a "VNPA" won't be easy, but also not unimaginable.

12/ @POTUS is well placed to pursue this as he’s now armed with the experience of what works/doesn’t with Tehran, he commands the GOP and can strong-arm Congress in ways Obama never could and Biden never would.

11/ On U.S. side, there will be a sense that given Iran's vulnerabilities, max pressure should also have maximalist ends, or no ends save further pressure. If, however, the objectives are reasonably defined, chances of a venn diagram converging becomes, if not likely, possible.

10/ On the Iranian side, the interest in some form of agreement is clear. But it is not translating that interest into a first concessionary move, nor is it at all clear that the system as a whole has the strategic vision, flexibility and will to make the compromises needed.

9/ Adding to those TBD issues is the fact that clock is already running given expiration in October of UNSCR 2231's snapback mechanism. NSPM-2 refers to working with allies (ie, E3) to "complete" the process. If there's little/no progress by mid-year, that is quite probable.

8/ If that is what might be *on* the table, also need to clarify who is *at* the table. P5+1 no longer exists. Would talks be bilateral U.S.-IRI? If so, indirect/mediated or direct? E3 would undoubtedly want to be involved and have excellent non-proliferation expertise to add.

7/ But that may not suffice: In Europe, Iran's drone/missile shipments to Russia are viewed as real concern. Circumstances may also allow for some degree of understandings on the regional front. Non-nuclear issues weren't in JCPOA - it may be possible to better that now.

6/ The first issue: What's on the table? Even if only addressing nuclear issues, the JCPOA framework no longer exists. Deal would need to address two elements of concern: Transparency into Iran's past and present nuclear activity, and limits on its production of fissile material.

5/ If there are to be negotiations leading to a "VNPA" - POTUS says "we should start working on it immediately" - and the Iranians appear game for some sort of talks with his administration there are several elements that must fall into place. This is easier said than done.