Nate Schenkkan

US sanctions Rwanda's military and top officials over support for M23 rebels in Congo The U.S. imposes new sanctions on Rwanda’s military and four top commanders over support for the M23 rebel group in eastern Congo. On Monday, the U.S.

Meanwhile over here the US sanctioned top Rwandan military officials for supporting M23. Seems like the much-feted December peace agreement didn't stick apnews.com/article/us-r...

It's gonna look great on the shows, what could go wrong

Ankara has complicated but stable relations with Teheran and a long policy (pre-Erdogan) of opposing intervention in the region; they issued a condolence statement for Khamenei, for example

Not to get all "say what you will about the tenets of national socialism" but at least our archetypal calamitous foreign interventions had theories of change behind them

These guys really did just start a war without an idea as to what they aimed to achieve

From what I can tell, the State Dept is behind on travel alerts for US citizens, ordered departures of non-emergency embassy personnel & other key safety moves when, you know, you go to war. Some sources say this is a result of sidelining career diplomats & not having a real policy process.

Breaking: Supreme Court Reverses Lower Court Order That Redrew Congressional Map in Staten Island, with Ominous Implications for Voting Rights Act #ELB I’m on the road so this will be brief. The Supreme Court over the dissent of the three liberal Justices reversed a lower court order requiring the drawing of a minority opportunity district that the l...

Rick Hasen on today: “to me the headline is the Justice Alito concurrence which states that race conscious districting as required not just by the federal Voting Rights Act but also state acts and state constitutions is “unadorned” and “odious” racial discrimination.” electionlawblog.org?p=154596

Are we supposed to hop on the next flying carpet out? Airports are closed.

Why is Egypt on this list?

Wouldn’t it be easier to stop this war than evacuate half a million Americans from a region practically as large as Australia?

Those service members would still be alive if there had been a basic effort by their leaders at hardening/passive defense. No reason to have a makeshift operations center in a war where you determine D-day.

Astronauts meme:

So it's all principal-agent problems?

always has been

Rubio suggests US strikes on Iran were influenced by Israeli plans Secretary of state says he hopes Iranian people would overthrow regime as US military says six service members killed.

So... Israel made the decision when the US would go to war www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/...

*52 dead and 150 wounded in Lebanon, after Hezbollah's exchange of fire with Israel during the day
*Houthis still laying low
*Arab state seriously contemplating options, including active participation in US-led campaign.
*Trump says the campaign timeline may take up to 5 weeks

Would be curious if anyone on here has studied the differences in US, Canadian and European branches of the Iranian diasporas--I have some vague impressions of certain differences, but nothing I'd feel confident posting

Reiterating my priors since it's a new thread: I am against the war, have criticized the war already and repeatedly. But I will always insist that recognizing other governments have agency includes recognizing when they make bad decisions, which Iran's definitely has, a lot

There's a big Iranian diaspora in Europe, too, and it is an important constituency in a number of relevant countries. That's not to say they support the strikes, as I'm sure many don't, but they are also not supportive of the regime on balance.

As I said yesterday, I think the below is true, but I also think the Iranian government's support for Russia in Ukraine, its kidnappings and assassination plots abroad, its hybrid war stuff in Europe make it a very hard case for even vague support, especially if such support won't change the outcome

These guys aren't interested in liberating anyone

www.coffeeordie.com/article/bott...

Inside the plan to kill Ali Khamenei Israel spent years hacking Tehran’s traffic cameras and monitoring bodyguards ahead of the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader

Inside the plan to kill Ali Khamenei - remarkable reporting here by Mehul Srivastava and James Shotter. ie "Nearly all the traffic cameras in Tehran had been hacked for years, their images encrypted and transmitted to servers in Tel Aviv and southern Israel." www.ft.com/content/bf99...

Paul Musgrave O @protmusgrave Around the department: Americanists: how bad can it be really? Comparativists: dictatorship, purges International relations: nuclear war 2017-01-12, 9:18 AM 708 Retweets 944 Likes Paul Musgrave © @profmusgrave • 2017-01-12 Replying to @profmusgrave Americanists: haha but seriously IR and comparative: who is joking LI89 · 194 Jacob T. Levy @itlevy- 2017-10-10 Replying to @profmusgrave Theorists: "We will go and view the city of tyranny, and once more take a look into the tyrant's soul." 172 Daniel W. Drezner © @dandrezner - 2017-01-12 Political theorists: oh, so now you want to talk to us, do you? Paul Musgrave © @profmusgrave Around the department: Americanists: how bad can it be really? Comparativists: dictatorship, purges International relations: nuclear war L109 O230

Feeling vindicated in my decision to bring this printout with me when I changed jobs

Every time I think "why do we even need risk analysts, this is like the most obvious job ever" you get stuff like this

Finance people are fascinating

The head of Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters was killed in an overnight strike in Beirut, Israel’s military has said.

Follow the latest updates on our live blog: www.politico.eu/article/us-i...

Facts on the ground, you might say

I think this is an important point. I am beginning to suspect that Israeli officialdom may recognize the "shakiness" of this system as well... and are cashing in their chips while they can.

I’ll only add, the success of this strategy is contingent on two axes of support: 1) stability and cooperation across the Sunni Arab autocracies 2) material support from the US. As a matter of politics, both axes seem to be on shaky ground.

Israel intensifies war on Lebanon after Hezbollah attack Israel's response to Hezbollah attack kills at least 31 people and leads to mass displacement in Lebanon.

My reporting from today.

www.aljazeera.com/features/202...

This is precisely it, and it mirrors their strategy in Lebanon and Syria. Where they cannot procure a compliant authoritarian, they settle for weakness, divided societies, and the ability to sustain that division through violence with impunity. Definitional rogue state.