Ben Harris

Long Run Fiscal Solvency and Its Consequences | Econofact Chats Wendy Edelberg and Ben Harris on the likely consequences of rising debt, and its impact on people’s retirement, especially if there are cuts to Social Security.

@wendyedelberg.bsky.social and I recently joined @fletcherschool.bsky.social Professor Michael Klein on the @econofact.bsky.social podcast for a chat about the consequences of a rising national debt, and America’s prospects for long-run fiscal solvency. Listen here: econofact.org/podcast/long...

Bloomberg: The China Show 04/11/2025 “Bloomberg: The China Show” is your definitive source for news and analysis on the world's second-biggest economy. From politics and policy to tech and trends, Annabelle Droulers and David Ingles give...

ICYMI, I recently discussed the future of Trump’s tariffs on Bloomberg's "Balance of Power," arguing that the tariff pause reflected the power of the bond market as a referee on policy. Watch here: www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/...

Where did Russia’s shadow fleet come from? Most of Russia's shadow fleet of oil tankers comes from Western companies. This gives Europe leverage, Robin Brooks and Ben Harris explain.

In a new piece, @robin-j-brooks.bsky.social and I document the origins of Russia’s shadow fleet. Tracking the ownership history of 75 sanctioned ships, we find that nearly 60% of them previously had European owners. Read it here:

Alternatively, in our most optimistic scenario, in which AI reduces mortality while also lowering the costs and demand for healthcare, annual deficits fall by 0.8% of GDP in 2044, or about $500 billion per year.

If AI technology leads to a larger old-age population without substantially improving healthcare prices and efficiency, it could increase annual deficits. Our most pessimistic scenario puts 2044 deficits around 1.6% of GDP larger relative to the baseline—about $1 trillion.

And of course, longer lifespans mean more people drawing from SS and Medicare. For example, if AI reduces mortality by 3% (as opposed to 0.74% in the baseline), the old-age population will rise from 73.2 million to 82.4 million in 2044.

A key takeaway is that this technological shock could be different from the internet boom—which boosted productivity and incomes—because AI could also lead to much longer lifespans.

Given the uncertainty around AI, we simulate four scenarios with varying effects of AI on mortality, population, the price of health care, and health care utilization.

Today, Brookings released a report I wrote with Neil Mehrotra and Eric So modeling the impact of AI on old-age entitlement expenditures like Medicare and Social Security. Read it here: www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

Opinion | How Trump Could Get Us Into a Debt Crisis A blowup will be sparked not by government spending but from political malpractice.

Check out today's @nytimes op-ed by @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and me arguing that the Trump Administration's reckless approach to fiscal policy raises the risk of a fiscal and financial crisis:

What are the risks of a rising federal debt?

Also, check out this Q&A which touches on the main results of our paper:

Assessing the risks and costs of the rising US federal debt While imminent fiscal crisis is unlikely, the large and growing federal debt presents a number of long-term risks.

US Debt is ~100% of GDP, and the debt limit is getting closer. Congress is now marking-up a budget that will take on trillions in new debt. What are the true costs of debt? And should we worry about a fiscal crisis? Read my new paper with @wendyedelberg.bsky.social and Louise Sheiner here:

More sanctions on Russian oil tankers Robin Brooks and Ben Harris investigate the oil price effects of the United States' January 2025 sanctions on Russian oil tankers.

In a new blog, Robin Brooks and I show that January 10th sanctions on 183 Russian tankers cover a massive 75 percent of oil exports from Russia’s Pacific ports. Despite targeting substantially more ships than all previous Russia sanctions combined, oil prices have barely risen.