Kristina Karlsson

Issue 7: Extreme Heat → Decreased Labor Supply + Labor Productivity The summer of 2025’s heat waves took a toll on workers. Many of them—warehouse employees, agricultural laborers, and low-wage workers who spend the day outside—have no choice but to toil on the front ...

Extreme heat is taking a toll on workers.

New research shows how a 3-degree Celsius warming scenario will have negative impacts on labor supply globally.

Dive into why this is the Fed's business in our latest #FedLit📖
https://fedlit.substack.com/p/issue-7-extreme-heat-decreased-labor

Promo graphic for fed lit with an image of David Barmes

🎧 This month's #FedLit is an interview with Sarah Bloom Raskin, @karlsson-kris.bsky.social, and David Barmes, Senior Fellow at @granthamlse.bsky.social.

They unpack “adaptive inflation targeting” & how central banks are navigating climate-driven economic shocks. fedlit.substack.com/p/issue-6-ad...

Two world maps labeled Figure S1, showing the pressure on headline and food inflation rates due to higher average temperatures in 2035 under SSP 585 scenario. The left map shows annual pressure on food inflation, and the right map shows annual pressure on headline inflation, both color-coded from dark red representing higher impacts to light pink for lower impacts. A note indicates SSP 585 is a high-emissions scenario. Source: Kotz et al. (2024).

📈 Climate change is driving inflation—and the Fed’s playbook isn’t built for it.

Sarah Bloom Raskin & @karlsson-kris.bsky.social break down adaptive inflation targeting: a smarter way to tackle climate shocks without stalling the green transition. #FedLit 🌍💸 fedlit.substack.com/p/issue-5-su...

Fed Lit | Substack Fed Lit is a monthly newsletter from the Roosevelt Institute offering essential climate reading for Federal Reserve staff, leadership, and other interested parties. Click to read Fed Lit, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

Curious about how climate risk shapes the future of central banking?

Make sure you're subscribed to #FedLit 💡!

Each month Sarah Bloom Raskin & @karlsson-kris.bsky.social ‬break down critical research on financial stability and climate’s impact. fedlit.substack.com/

Key finding from the Roosevelt Institute: Climate risk could decrease sovereign creditworthiness globally, with 63 countries potentially facing downgrades by 2030, increasing to 80 by 2100. Citation includes Sarah Bloom Raskin and Kristina Karlsson from 'Fed Lit: Issue 4 - Global Emissions + Sovereign Creditworthiness + Debt Costs'.

💡New research shows rising temps could tank sovereign credit ratings—costing the US up to $95B by the year 2100.

In the latest #FedLit, Sarah Bloom Raskin & @karlsson-kris.bsky.social break down the bond market risks—and why the Fed should care. 🌍 fedlit.substack.com/p/issue-4-gl...

Yesterday at a hearing with the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, Senators Whitehouse and Wyden sounded the alarm: climate-driven insurance collapse is a threat to families—and to financial stability.

The costs are already hitting families. www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgjr...

Another great read from @karlsson-kris.bsky.social and Sarah Bloom Raskin!

Mapping the Home Insurance Crisis | Revolving Door Project A series of interactive maps and tables to help people make sense of the climate change-fueled home insurance crisis.

NEW: "Mapping the Home Insurance Crisis" contains a series of interactive maps and tables to help people make sense of the climate change-fueled home insurance crisis.

A collaboration with @publiccitizen.bsky.social.

🧵 ⬇️

Fed Lit #2 is out now! The paper we profiled demonstrates the role uncertainty plays in amplifying the econ impacts of climate risk. In light of recent "bad vibes" data tracking consumer sentiment/uncertainty - this analysis shows that vibes + material temperature changes = real economy stagnation.

Key finding graphic that reads: Climate risk, measured by temperature increases and temperature volatility, had a statistically significant negative impact on the state-level Coincident Economic Activity Index (CI). This index tracks nonfarm payroll employment, unemployment, average hours worked in manufacturing, wages, and salaries.

🔥 Rising temperatures + unpredictable economic policy = a recipe for stagnation. States with high policy uncertainty face 10x the economic hit from climate risk.

More in the latest #FedLit from Sarah Bloom Raskin & @karlsson-kris.bsky.social: fedlit.substack.com/p/issue-2-cl...

Our 1st #FedLit post focuses on insurance market dynamics in Florida. We learned a lot from Ishita Sen Parinitha Sastry and Ana Maria Tenekedjieva about how fragile, often insolvent, insurers that dominate the market in Florida, drive increased mortgage delinquencies after climate disasters. 👀👇

Issue 1: Climate Disaster → Insurer Fragility → Mortgage Delinquency “When Insurers Exit: Climate Losses, Fragile Insurers, and Mortgage Markets”

🌪️ Climate disasters are hitting insurance and housing markets.

In the first #FedLit issue, @karlsson-kris.bsky.social & Sarah Bloom Raskin explore how fragile insurers and mortgage delinquencies are tied to climate risk—and why the Fed must act. fedlit.substack.com/p/issue-1-cl...

Hi new bluesky friends! Today Sarah Bloom Raskin and I launched a newsletter - FedLit. We'll be discussing critical climate risk literature and the stakes for central bankers. Maybe we'll nag the Fed into reading along with us. I hope you'll consider subscribing, our first issue drops next week!

It's worth noting that the risks between short-term insurance policies, long-term mortgages, and climate change aren't new, even if we're seeing increasingly dire examples of how it can manifest.

I wrote this in 2020: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....