Renรฉ Duba ๐Ÿ…ฟ๏ธ's Avatar

Renรฉ Duba ๐Ÿ…ฟ๏ธ

@reneduba.bsky.social

Conflict analyst ๐Ÿ…ฟ๏ธ (parked here) Chat = not used

3,052 Followers  |  4,762 Following  |  756 Posts  |  Joined: 29.10.2023  |  2.2321

Latest posts by reneduba.bsky.social on Bluesky

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A night, a Ukrainian drone strike hit the Tyingovatovo oil pumping station in Chuvashia, located nearly 1000 km from Ukraine. The facility is part of the Kuibyshev-Tikhoretsk oil pipeline.

27.09.2025 09:15 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 477    ๐Ÿ” 48    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 3    ๐Ÿ“Œ 6
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Investigation finds Russian surveillance, sabotage ship near European undersea cables, FT reports Precise maps of Europe's crucial energy and communications networks would be an advantage for Moscow if it ever decides to wage a war against the continent, FT reported.

โšก๏ธInvestigation finds Russian surveillance, sabotage ship near European undersea cables, FT reports.

Satellite data has uncovered a Russian surveillance and sabotage ship near crucial underwater cables in Europe's seas, the Financial Times (FT) reported on Sept. 26.

27.09.2025 03:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 691    ๐Ÿ” 301    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 33    ๐Ÿ“Œ 11

This is to be expected: less pipelines and pumping stations means that they fall back on railcars.

The real significance is that it is for export. This means that getting money from diesel exports is a higher priority than having the fuel for their own use.

27.09.2025 05:23 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 2    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

I very much agree.
Taking out the aggressor should be the priority.
All the roles are necessary though. Ukraine recently demonstrated the Skynex system. So they can protect their own.

13.07.2025 05:46 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Did Germany finance the development and production of HRIM-2 or the long range Neptune or something entirely new?

12.07.2025 07:43 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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๐Ÿฆ Bird โ€œshoots downโ€ enemy drone simulator.

12.07.2025 06:33 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 700    ๐Ÿ” 123    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 34    ๐Ÿ“Œ 14

looks like a bridge

12.07.2025 07:39 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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A Ukrainian MiG-29 has struck the only bridge linking occupied Vasylivka to the Kamyanske highway using GBU-62 guided bombs.

12.07.2025 06:54 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1305    ๐Ÿ” 204    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 26    ๐Ÿ“Œ 10

โ€ผ๏ธ There were 26 cruise missiles and 597 drones, more than half of them were "Shaheds." More than 20 missiles and the vast majority of strike drones were neutralized, โ€” Zelensky.

12.07.2025 07:07 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1000    ๐Ÿ” 170    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 16    ๐Ÿ“Œ 8
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Russian massive attack on #Ukraine last night: two killed and 14 injured in Chernivtsi; six injured in Lviv.

โ–ช๏ธTwo people were killed on the spot by falling debris in Chernivtsi - a 26-year-old woman and a 43-year-old man

Residential buildings, administrative offices, shops, cars were also damaged.

12.07.2025 07:20 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 271    ๐Ÿ” 108    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 8    ๐Ÿ“Œ 3
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'Realists' laugh at moral indignation. They shouldn't. Sinking as low as Hitler is a very negative factor. And it's real.

/end.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 7    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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European and US pacifists and Russian friendly voices should be confronted with the hard reality of Putin's "Russian Mir".

As Putin believes in impunity and many Russians with him, Ukraine and the West should make them understand there won't be such a thing as impunity.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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9. The world community has had it with Putin. There are still those who protect themselves from disgust by denial. As Dwight Eisenhower decided on 12 April 1945, after seeing the โ€œconditions of indescribable horrorโ€ in concentration camp Ohrdruf, the world should know this.

[..]

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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[..]
Their replacement (the Satan rocket) misfires, falls out of the sky or just explodes. Doesn't look like a hopeful project at this point. The same goes for the Oreshnik.

8. Russian artillery is imprecise. That's a weak point.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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7. Old Russian ICBMs have been neglected are underserviced and may be a case lost. The same goes for the nuclear war heads. Russia's protection is the we don't know for sure. Some may still work.

[..]

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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6. Russia is financially on its way to the bottom.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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4. A Russian tank showing up at the front is a tank lost. The same goes for other vehicles.

5. Many of their strategic bombers are irreplaceable. Factories, assembly lines and knowledge stems from times past, the engineers are dead. A bomber lost is a bomber lost forever.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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3. The Russian army is thoroughly corrupt. Soldier's salaries flow into the commander's pockets. The dead are not acknowledged, so the money keeps flowing. The anonymous dead go into landfills by the thousands. Supposedly "Missing In Action" so as not to pay teir families.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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2. Their leaders are delusional and paranoid, they lack in reality testing, they probably don't get to hear the truth from their commanders.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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What are some of Russia's weak points?

1. Russia's size is a typical structural weakness. They have such a large territory that to defend it all, you need insane amounts of air defence.

Ukraine can hit whatever they like.

11.07.2025 15:44 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

They do indeed.

A close neighbour to 'identity' is hatred towards those who don't share your identity.

I always found it fascinating that Republicans have a stronger sense of hatred against the Democrats than vice versa.

Why would that be? Why isn't the hatred more equally distributed?

06.07.2025 15:53 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

Indeed.

04.07.2025 19:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

The US isn't at war with anyone at the moment except - since the 1950s - with North Korea.

04.07.2025 19:50 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 2    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

In peacetime the US weapons stockpiles are never low. The DoD automatically prevents that from happening.

04.07.2025 13:06 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 6    ๐Ÿ” 1    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 2    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

And it's not just teargas.

Russia uses choking compounds.

04.07.2025 08:59 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 4    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Russia increased the use of chemical weapons and increased research for new chemical weapons.

Dutch and German intelligence services have documented 9000 chemical attacks to date, while the real number is a multiple of this.

english.defensie.nl/latest/news/...

04.07.2025 08:56 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 9    ๐Ÿ” 4    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Conclusion:

Russia can freely sell nuclear power plants all over the world. It can claim it has "initiated" planning everywhere, because "initiated" can mean almost anything.

It represents serious revenue for Rosatom and hence: serious tax revenue for Putin's war machine.

5/5

01.07.2025 08:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 5    ๐Ÿ” 3    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 0    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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The latest lifting of sanctions (115B) is almost equal to the version of 10 January 2025 (115A) which excluded the Hungarian NPP. This is now included. Hungary can now build its Russian nuclear power plant and Rosatom can now get paid.

4/

01.07.2025 08:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Grok:
Fuel rods and servicing add steady income. Annual foreign revenue likely ranges between $10โ€“15 billion.

Grok estimates the order portfolio at 127 Billion USD, but I'd count in the framework agreements and the letters of intent. Those would at least double it.

3/

01.07.2025 08:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 1    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0
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Grok:
Rosatom, earns revenue from its nuclear exports: $16.2 billion in 2023 and a 10-year order portfolio of $127.1 billion. Major projects in Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, China, India and elsewhere involve loans of $10โ€“30 billion per project, repaid through electricity sales.

2/

01.07.2025 08:10 โ€” ๐Ÿ‘ 0    ๐Ÿ” 0    ๐Ÿ’ฌ 1    ๐Ÿ“Œ 0

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