Haydon is reading The Uncertain Center, Arthur C McGill

I know everyone has moved on

But according to new CNU Virginia poll

Spanberger is up +13% on handling trans issue

It is top of mind for only 3% of voters

After GOP spent 2 months and millions pushing message

Perhaps why they have shifted focus in recent days…

It’s the furthest out “tool store” for me, and so I try to have a determined need before I drag myself and one of the kids out there.

But im gonna leave with more stuff, like random air tool attachments I don’t need or a random assortment of wrenches to refill my constantly diminishing supply.

And guess what? The jack stands I’ve wanted to upgrade to were on sale today.

Great stuff.

Many people On Here will earnestly claim it was worse.

Yes you fucking do.

I am super excited to go to harbor freight and get a new torque wrench send post

It's open enrollment time so here's a convenient peg to hang a little tutorial about how to choose your health insurance.

Most of the advice you get is bad. Most of your instincts are bad. I however used to work for a health insurance company and I do arithmetic for a living so I can help.

"Transparency and faith in the rule of law" are at issue here, Ellis says, noting that having her name on opinions keeps her "from going off the rails, because I have to do it publicly. Here, I think it is important that these officers and agents, at some point along the way, could be identified."

Trump explicitly endorsing Miyares may just make his vote share the same as his approval and that's fine.

Negative polarization go brrrrr

But the key is to also, as serenely as possible, also not give a shit.

I haven’t really dealt with that because I’m the wrong demographic for that generally, but I did have a few weirdos say very gross things about my kids when they were part of my profile picture, and they didn’t get banned or anything for that.

I just assume Bluesky doesn’t give a shit.

Calling mods mods mods on the mods and then calling mods mods mods mods mods mods on the mods’ mods etc etc

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At least he’ll probably still be able to hear things after he turns 30 unlike me, so that’s a plus.

This happens with my son now a lot.

I noticed it especially after he watched some Paw Patrol. He’s very interested in safety now.

If he grows up to be the guy on scene wearing a high vis vest, eye protection and scolds everyone else that doesn’t, there are worse things I guess.

Reconsidering Off-Label Pediatric COVID-19 Vaccination This Viewpoint discusses current factors to consider when recommending off-label pediatric COVID-19 vaccination.

Anticipating changes to the 25/26 Covid-19 vaccine regulations @sefyfe.bsky.social & I updated our previous analysis of off-label pediatric Covid-19 vaccination. It is out now in @jamapediatrics.com & accessible here.

Many things happened since we submitted this! I'll touch on a few of them 🧵

I think they’re collectively realizing that the time pressure is actually on them to fix the shutdown before the ACA subsidies sunset otherwise they will *have* to be fixed at the same time.

I have a shorter and more acute metric I’m looking at with the VA elections especially. There’s the most theoretical downside for Dems there, but if the polling continues to support them here it’s prolly broader.

But I share your concern. I think if this matters long term it’s as a morale booster.

healthcare.

I don't know if shifting the ask helps or hurts Dems narratively, and I am also not sure how much it makes a difference to whether R's decide to forego the filibuster here and then they pass a CR *and* an ACA fix on their own. You know?

Reasonable, I think that R's are already playing damage control if they're trying to fix this now. They lost the narrative battle there and are back pedaling, so it's a question of what Dems can or should do to maximize the damage.

There's tension there because the original successful ask was...

If the Dems actually manage to get an ACA fix out of the shutdown I will be both surprised, pleased, and more than a little apprehensive.

I don’t love that there will be positive inertia for shutdowns to leverage policy concessions, but the victory now is infinitely more important.

I'd like to think that 2020 Bernie Dead Enders are unlikely to be a coalition splitting force in 2026/28 but God knows that's just wishful thinking.

Bringing a Survey to a Gun Fight “Pollingism” Has Failed Democrats and Voters. Here’s Why, and What to Do Instead.

Sidelining marginalized groups/causes for electoral purposes is morally bad, as Ta-Nehisi Coates argued so well recently. @anatosaurus.bsky.social is making an important case---that strategy's electoral benefits are often limited or non-existent. A must-read. www.weekendreading.net/p/bringing-a...

That's why I want to keep some humility in how I interpret the campaign filings, I'm working backwards from "God she's a bad candidate and that sucks".

Fair, and I'd be totally open to push back on this from someone that knows better.

I always read folks' view that Buttigieg was unwilling to fight as misinterpreting the way he's not afraid of managing conflict.

It's why he goes on Fox, he's not avoiding the conflict he's trying to set up circumstances so that he can manage it. He clearly likes to *manage* things.

Oh, I don’t think it’s fraud per se, I lean toward it just being a huge waste/inefficient use of money in the first instance, and little to no evidence of a longer term political project underlying it beyond that.

I think the question is whether or not this political operation is effectively building out that capacity in the state or internally, and to be perfectly honest the numbers don’t make me think that they are. It seems like they kept a few well paid folks on and then the rest is just sitting there.