Irish Unity

The Northern Ireland Assembly published it's Research and Information Service Briefing Paper this week on Stormont reform.

www.niassembly.gov.uk/globalassets...

Be wary of those who tell you, that you don't need the legal human rights protection of the ECHR.

If you don't need the legal protection, then why are they trying to remove it?

YouTube video by Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission NIHRC Annual Human Rights Lecture 2026

The Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission hosted Tim Eicke, former UK Judge at the European Court of Human Rights. His lecture is titled "ECHR in a Changing World: Facts, Myths and the UK Context".

An excellent watch.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=Doln...

Publications - Ireland's Future

The civic group Ireland's Future have published excellent policy documents on Irish reunification.

irelandsfuture.com/publications/

It's unrelated to the GFA.

Irish and British citizens can live and work and enter each other jurisdictions visa free under the 1923 Common Travel Area (CTA) agreement.

Good to see positive engagement on shared priorities.

It's important that the publication of transparent Border Poll criteria is put on the agenda, and both Governments actively plan for a Border Poll.

I would respectfully disagree with you there. The British Government has frequently been dragged to court to apply it's own laws. Senior politicians from the Conservatives and Reform UK are cutrently actively arguing for withdrawal from the ECHR and claim this doesn't contravene the GFA.

Yes, it states 'a majority of those voting'.

I'm merely making reasonable data led led electoral conclusions on the constitutional preferences of the 15% of 'neutral' voters.

Fleur Anderson MP: Calling border poll ‘would be based on opinion polls’ - agendaNi Ten months after the Labour Party was returned to power in Britain, Parliamentary Undersecretary of State at the Northern Ireland Office, Fleur Anderson MP, speaks to Joshua Murray about Labour’s ambi...

A British Government Minister recently stated a Border Poll would be based on opinion polls. This is contrary to the GFA which specifically states 'those voting'.

Election Results should be the criteria, not opinion polls.

www.agendani.com/fleur-anders...

The Fianna Fáil led Government won't call for a Border Poll until they are absolutely certain of a unification victory. Sinn Féin and the SDLP are both agitating for a Border Poll within the next 4 years.

The GFA had overwhelming support in the south, however the referendum in the south wasn't on the ratification of the GFA, it was merely on the 19th Amendment to the Constitution, i.e. changes to Articles 2 & 3 of the Constitution.

That's a fair counter arguement, however with more than half of Alliance & Green transfers going to pro Irish Unity candidates the matter becomes more nuanced.

You've also conflated the 2022 Assembly Election with the 2023 Local Election. Gerry Carroll wasn't a candidate in the 2023 Local Election. Nobody voted for him in 2023, either on the Shankill or anywhere else in West Belfast.

Again, you're conflating Nationalist with pro Irish Unity. The pro Irish Unity party vote was;

230,793 SF
64,996 SDLP
8,059 PBP
7,459 Aontú
825 IRSP
678 WP

People vote along constitutional lines in every election in Northerm Ireland. Nobody would suggest Alex Easton or Clare Sugden's voters don't support the Union. The same applies to the constitutional preference of those who vote for Gary Donnelly.

1) I analysed the constitutional preference of every Independent candidate. Unionists Independents got 18,000 votes.

2) Vast majority had a very clear constitutional preference. Some Unionist candidates were a bit more unclear but ultimately they were pro Union.

Independent Nationalist candidates got 15,000 votes in the election. People voting for them knew their constitutional position, and constitutional positions trump all other issues in Northern Ireland.

The political wings of the INLA and the Official IRA [i.e. IRSP and WP] do not have an ambiguous position on Irish Unity, neither does PBP. The two former cases are strongly opposed to Sinn Féin and would never vote for them, they will however vote for Unity in a Border Poll.

Correct, it is not an urgent priority for them, but more Alliance members and voters support Irish Unity than support union with the UK.

Wants to rip up the Windsor Framework, yet voted for the EU Withdrawal Treaty and NI Protocol when he was an MEP.

A text book example of a politician doing one thing, and saying the exact opposite.

polling - more Alliance voters support Irish Unity than union with the UK, and neutrality will not be an option on the ballot paper.

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You've conflated 'Nationalist' with pro Irish Unity. PBP, IRSP & WP don't designate as Nationalist but they all support Irish Unity. The neutral vote was just over 15% in 2023. It's not at 20% & it's actually slipped in recent polling. As for the intentions of neutral voters, according to...

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Kieran Allen Speech On Irish Unity Sinn Féin invited a number of parties to attend a conference on an ‘Agreed Ireland’ at the Waterfont in Belfast last weekend. People Before Profit sent along Kieran Allen as its representative. Here i...

PBP don't identify as Nationalist but they are pro Irish Unity. Accordingly, they are included in the 44.36% pro Irish Unity vote. As are IRSP, Workers Party & Independent Nationalists who aren't included in your figures.

www.pbp.ie/kieran-allen...

Petition: Write law that a referendum is required for the UK to be able to leave the ECHR The European Convention on Human Rights enshrines our basic human rights, gives us the right to a fair trial, right to privacy and helps protect us from things like torture, unlawful killing, slavery ...

The European Convention on Human Rights is a key aspect of the Good Friday Agreement. The British Government cannot absolve itself of it's obligation to uphold the ECHR.

petition.parliament.uk/petitions/75...

That one opposition party is the largest political party in Ireland.

They lead the opposition in Leinster House and they are the largest party in Northern Ireland.

His suggestion that a Border Poll is "way off in the distance" isn't grounded in reality. Irish Unity candidates got 44.36% of the vote in the 2023 Election. They have over taken Unionism electorally & are projected to get 47% of the vote next year. A Poll is likely in the next 5-8 years.

the Catholic majority/plurality will have increased by approx 80,000 since the previous census. The data will be so compelling that the British Government won't be able to deny reality.

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election when sample weighting will be updated & polls will indicate a 'sudden' increase in support for Irish Unity when in reality the polls will merely be catching up with incremental growth over the previous 5 years. The trend will become more pronounced after the 2031 census, by which time...

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largely sample weighted based on i. Assembly election results & ii. Census results. A consequence of this is that opinion polls today are 4/5 years behind the 'true' societal position & don't accurately reflect changes in NI demographics. That position is partially reset after the 2028 Assembly..

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