AEA Journals

The Beautiful Dataset (Forthcoming Article) - Natural experiments, high stakes, expert subjects, knowledge of the precise objectives and exact rules, clean measurement, observability of strategies, incentives, actions and ...

Forthcoming in the JEL: "The Beautiful Dataset" by Ignacio Palacios-Huerta. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Politics at Work (Forthcoming Article) - We study how individual political views shape firm behavior and labor market outcomes using new micro-data from Brazil. We first show that business owners are considerably more...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Politics at Work" by Emanuele Colonnelli, Valdemar Pinho Neto, and Edoardo Teso. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes (Forthcoming Article) - This paper studies the sectoral and macroeconomic consequences of carbon taxes in four Nordic countries using a novel monthly measure of effective carbon tax rates. The suggest...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "The Economic Consequences of Effective Carbon Taxes" by Felix Kapfhammer. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Monetary Policy and the Labor Market: A Quasi-Experiment in Sweden (Forthcoming Article) - We analyze a monetary quasi-experiment in Sweden from 2010–2011, when the Riksbank raised the interest rate substantially. We argue that this increase was beyond what labor mar...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Monetary Policy and the Labor Market: A Quasi-Experiment in Sweden" by John Coglianese, Maria Olsson, and Christina Patterson. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Vertical Integration and Cream Skimming of Profitable Referrals: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities (Forthcoming Article) - We examine whether vertical integration of hospitals and skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) could lessen competition by foreclosing rival SNFs’ access to lucrative referrals. We...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Vertical Integration and Cream Skimming of Profitable Referrals: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities" by David Cutler, Leemore Dafny, David C. Grabowski, Steven Lee, and Christopher Ody. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Interbank Rate Uncertainty and Bank Lending (Forthcoming Article) - We propose a new measure of interbank rate uncertainty, defined as the crosssectional dispersion in interbank market rates for overnight unsecured loans. We show that higher in...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Interbank Rate Uncertainty and Bank Lending" by Carlo Altavilla, Giacomo Carboni, Michele Lenza, and Harald Uhlig. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Development programs in war zones Did development aid in Afghanistan help counter the Taliban’s insurgency?

Development aid can help suppress insurgencies, but it may be counterproductive in areas where insurgents came from outside of local communities, say researchers at @theworldbank.bsky.social, @mit.edu, and @upf.edu. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/dev...

American Economic Review Vol. 115 No. 8 August 2025

The August 2025 issue of the American Economic Review (115, 8) is now available online at aeaweb.org/issues/813.

Consistent Evidence on Duration Dependence of Price Changes (Forthcoming Article) - We develop a linear GMM estimator of the discrete time mixed proportional hazard (MPH) model of duration with an arbitrary distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We allow fo...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Consistent Evidence on Duration Dependence of Price Changes" by Fernando Alvarez, Katarína Borovičková, and Robert Shimer. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment (Forthcoming Article) - China’s CO2 emissions trading system, the world’s largest, aims to significantly reduce CO2 emissions. The system is a tradable performance standard (TPS), differing from cap a...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "China’s Nationwide CO2 Emissions Trading System: A General Equilibrium Assessment" by Lawrence H. Goulder, Xianling Long, Chenfei Qu, and Da Zhang. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Place-Based Redistribution (Forthcoming Article) - We study optimal income taxation in a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous locational preferences, labor supply decisions, and competitive housing and labor markets. Ex...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Place-Based Redistribution" by Cecile Gaubert, Patrick Kline, Damian Vergara, and Danny Yagan. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy Vol. 17 No. 3 August 2025

The August 2025 issue of AEJ: Economic Policy (17, 3) is now available online at aeaweb.org/issues/812.

American Economic Journal: Microeconomics Vol. 17 No. 3 August 2025

The August 2025 issue of AEJ: Microeconomics (17, 3) is now available online at aeaweb.org/issues/811.

Building a New Economy: Japan's Digital and Green Transformation by D. Hugh Whittaker (Forthcoming Article)

Forthcoming book review in the JEL: "Building a New Economy: Japan's Digital and Green Transformation by D. Hugh Whittaker" by Daiji Kawaguchi. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Inflation Targeting under Fiscal Fragility (Forthcoming Article) - We propose a model to study an inflation-targeting regime under a high government debt burden. We assume that an altruistic policymaker chooses debt issuance, inflation, and pu...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Inflation Targeting under Fiscal Fragility" by Aloisio Araujo, Vitor Costa, Paulo Lins, Rafael Santos, and Serge de Valk. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Hacked to Pieces? The Effects of Ransomware Attacks on Hospitals and Patients (Forthcoming Article) - As cybercriminals increasingly target healthcare, hospitals face the growing threat of ransomware attacks. Ransomware is a type of malicious software that prevents users from a...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Hacked to Pieces? The Effects of Ransomware Attacks on Hospitals and Patients" by Hannah Neprash, Claire McGlave, and Sayeh Nikpay. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Applied Economics: "How Equality Created Poverty in Pre-industrial Japan, 1600–1870" by Yuzuru Kumon. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Invisible Wounds: How Mental Disability Benefits Shape Veteran Well-Being (Forthcoming Article) - We study the effects of VA Disability Compensation for mental conditions. Leveraging quasi-random assignment to medical examiners with differing rating tendencies, we estimate ...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Invisible Wounds: How Mental Disability Benefits Shape Veteran Well-Being" by David Silver and Jonathan Zhang. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Diversity and scientific focus Does a more diverse undergraduate student body inspire new research on underrepresented populations?

As women became a larger share of undergraduate student bodies in the United States over the course of the 20th century, research in science on gender-related topics increased significantly, say researchers at @umich.edu and Tilburg University. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/cha...

Disemployment Effects of Unemployment Insurance: A Meta-Analysis (Forthcoming Article) - We systematically review studies of how unemployment benefits affect unemployment duration. Statistically significant findings are eight times more likely to be published. Corr...

Forthcoming in AER: Insights: "Disemployment Effects of Unemployment Insurance: A Meta-Analysis" by Jonathan P. Cohen and Peter Ganong. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Connections During Democratic Transitions: Insights from the Political Purge in Post-WWII France (Forthcoming Article) - We examine how connections shaped transitional justice during France’s post-WWII democratic transition. Parliamentarians who had supported the Vichy regime faced a two-stage pu...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Connections During Democratic Transitions: Insights from the Political Purge in Post-WWII France" by Toke S. Aidt, Jean Lacroix, and Pierre-Guillaume Méon. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Polling Place Location and the Costs of Voting (Forthcoming Article) - We study how distance to one’s polling place affects the likelihood of voting using a geographic regression discontinuity design with data from Pennsylvania and Georgia. A one-...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Economic Policy: "Polling Place Location and the Costs of Voting" by Gaurav Bagwe, Juan Margitic, and Allison Stashko. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices? (Forthcoming Article) - Did credit drive the 2000s housing cycle? The existing literature’s findings range from credit having no effect to credit explaining most of the cycle. We show that these dispa...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Do Credit Conditions Move House Prices?" by Daniel L. Greenwald and Adam Guren. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

The Value of Software (Forthcoming Article) - Software is one of the most important assets that needs to be priced in the digital economy. It has emerged as a disruptive technology, with companies primarily valued for thei...

Forthcoming in the AER: "The Value of Software" by Roberto Gómez-Cram and Alastair Lawrence. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Measuring US income inequality Matthieu Gomez discusses income inequality and why it has increased in recent years.

Just how much US income inequality has increased and why it is growing is a topic of intense debate among economists. We spoke with Matthieu Gomez of @columbiauniversity.bsky.social about what's really behind the rise in top incomes. #econsky www.aeaweb.org/research/inc...

Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry (Forthcoming Article) - We develop, identify, and estimate a model of imperfect competition in both labor and product markets. Our context is the US construction industry, where firms compete for work...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Imperfect Competition and Rents in Labor and Product Markets: The Case of the Construction Industry" by Kory Kroft, Yao Luo, Magne Mogstad, and Bradley Setzler. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium (Forthcoming Article) - Policy-relevant treatment effect estimation in a marketplace setting requires assessing both the direct treatment benefit and spillovers induced by changes to the market equili...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium" by Evan Munro, Xu Kuang, and Stefan Wager. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Micro vs Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort (Forthcoming Article) - We investigate long-run earnings responses to taxes in the presence of dynamic returns to effort. First, we develop a theoretical model of earnings determination with dynamic r...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Micro vs Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: The Role of Dynamic Returns to Effort" by Henrik Kleven, Claus Kreiner, Kristian Larsen, and Jakob Søgaard. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Labor Market Power, Self-Employment, and Development (Forthcoming Article) - This paper shows that self-employment shapes labor market power in low-income countries, with implications for industrial devel- opment. Using Peruvian data, we find that wage-...

Forthcoming in the AER: "Labor Market Power, Self-Employment, and Development" by Francesco Amodio, Pamela Medina, and Monica Morlacco. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Anatomy of the Greek Depression with Firm-Level Data: The Importance of Demand Shocks (Forthcoming Article) - During the Greek Depression, which saw a 22% decline in output, young firms and small firms experienced significantly steeper declines in sales growth compared to their mature ...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "Anatomy of the Greek Depression with Firm-Level Data: The Importance of Demand Shocks" by Stelios Giannoulakis and Plutarchos Sakellaris. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...