Riccardo Fabiani

Renewed U.S.-led Talks in Madrid Lend Momentum to Western Sahara Diplomacy, but Big Challenges Remain | International Crisis Group Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani reports on U.S.-led talks to resolve the conflict over Western Sahara, and the stumbling blocks that lie ahead

My short take on the Madrid talks on Western Sahara

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Unless there is a radical and unpredictable change in the local or international circumstances, the conflict seems to be slowly headed towards a unilateral, partial resolution that risks leaving thousands of refugees stranded and disenfranchised.

Meanwhile, the Polisario doesn't have a credible strategy to achieve what it wants.

Diplomatically, its passivity is only working against its own interests.

Militarily, they have no viable options, due to the limits they face in terms of equipment and rules of the game.

Morocco has strategic patience and will continue to work towards imposing its own solution, with or without the other side.

This means signing a deal with another Sahrawi group to end the conflict and/or removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.

That said, the resolution still includes elements of language that are favourable to Morocco.

The long-term trend that sees the UN Security Council move closer to Rabat's position is only reinforced.

The US (and France, for that matters) exhibited a fundamental misunderstanding of the Polisario and Algeria's position, which doomed their policy from the start.

But, instead of nuancing the language and creating room for the UN envoy to explore what flexibility both sides have and what room for compromise exists, the US went all in with a one-sided approach that was never going to work.

A wasted opportunity, because the US had leverage over the parties but squandered it by trying to impose autonomy leaving no room to the other side.

The idea of linking MINURSO reform to progress was also a way to pressure both parties towards a settlement.

An honourable compromise, because it avoids upsetting the status quo by overemphasizing the autonomy plan at the expenses of self-determination.

It also prolongs the MINURSO for another 12 months, protecting a key safeguard against accidental escalation.

The draft resolution in blue is already doing the rounds.

In short, it's an honourable compromise and a wasted opportunity to achieve progress on Western Sahara.

Is this the next conflict Trump will pledge to solve? Trump claims to have ended eight wars. Is this his next?

“I think Trump’s team are overestimating their leverage,” @ricfabiani.bsky.social said. “They believe they can magically broker deals without really understanding the complexities of these conflicts and that they can just impose settlements. It’s a big illusion.”
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The window for diplomacy is narrow: without a coherent U.S.–European strategy and UN leadership, the Western Sahara dispute could slide into renewed regional instability.

We urge the U.S. to align with the UN, resist unilateralism, and press both Morocco and the Polisario to update and detail their 20-year-old proposals.

Hardliners in Rabat and Washington push to close MINURSO, arguing the conflict is “over”. But removing peacekeepers could trigger direct Morocco–Algeria clashes.

European capitals back Morocco’s autonomy plan to varying degrees, from France’s full endorsement to Italy’s careful neutrality. Fragmentation weakens Europe’s leverage.

The UN envoy, Staffan de Mistura, urges negotiations around genuine autonomy and a credible form of self-determination. Only this balance can bridge the gap between Rabat and the Polisario.

Sahrawi frustration is rising in refugee camps as diplomacy stalls. Without credible talks, pressure is mounting for renewed armed struggle.

Trump officials back Morocco’s autonomy plan yet flirt with dismantling MINURSO and branding the Polisario as terrorists, moves that could reignite conflict.

Washington’s renewed interest in Western Sahara offers a rare diplomatic opening, but mixed signals and hardline agendas risk slamming it shut.

A Window for Diplomacy in Western Sahara | International Crisis Group The conflict between Morocco and the Algerian-backed Polisario Front in the Western Sahara rages on a half century after it began. The U.S. and Europe must work together so the UN envoy can restart ne...

Our latest briefing on Western Sahara is out

crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

A short thread:

The World’s Shame in Gaza | International Crisis Group Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war regardless of “day after” questions – lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life ...

NEW STATEMENT | The World’s Shame in Gaza

Israel’s Gaza campaign has entered an even more nightmarish phase. The world must press Israel harder to stop the war, lest its offensive destroy Palestinian life in the strip beyond hope of recovery.

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

Once Western Sahara is removed from the UN list of non-self-governing territories, the legal and diplomatic scaffolding around it collapses.

While this move would not end the conflict per se, it would remove a major thorn in the side for Morocco and "normalise" the status quo.

By acknowledging the autonomy plan as "the only basis" for resolution and recognising Moroccan sovereignty, foreign governments implicitly recognise Western Sahara as Moroccan and, therefore, not a non-self-governing territory.

These elements of language matter for the future of this conflict.

By precluding other options, Morocco is hoping to 1) force Algeria and the Polisario to change position while 2) paving the way for removing Western Sahara from the UN list of non-self-governing territories.

Morocco clearly prefers the latter option, but will settle for the former as long as it indicates an evolution from previous positions.

Algeria and the Polisario despise both options, but can live with the former.

But this is not just a battle over semantics.

- Calling the autonomy plan "the only basis" for conflict resolution

- Language adopted by France and the US

- Indicates only autonomy is possible and precludes other options

- Usually comes with recognition of Moroccan sovereignty

- Antagonises Algeria and the Polisario

- Calling the autonomy plan "the most serious and credible solution"

- Language adopted by the UK, Spain, Portugal

- Indicates strong support for the autonomy plan, without precluding other options

- Doesn't recognise Moroccan sovereignty

- Doesn't antagonise Algeria and FP

After yesterday's shift on Western Sahara by Portugal, a helpful reminder to all diplomats and non-diplomats of what the various elements of language on this issue mean and their implications:

(A thread)

𝐔𝐊 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐨𝐧 𝐖𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐒𝐚𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐚 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡 “𝐛𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐦𝐮𝐦” 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭

@ricfabiani.bsky.social‬ talks to us in an exclusive interview on the UK's new deal with Morocco

Read in our FREE magazine: maghrebi.org?sdm_process_...

@martinrjay.bsky.social

The 18th century way of war At a time of increasing autocratic tendencies and heightened great-power competition, the 18th century provides important lessons from age when it was normal for states to annex territories for the gr...

Another fascinating historical parallel by my great friend and historian Adam Storring

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...