Mark Galeotti

It's hard to be sure they really are that surprised -- although some bridges have been burnt since 10/23, there is still considerable diplomatic connective tissue there. At times, Moscow affects to be surprised, simply to avoid awkward qs over why it didn't do anything beforehand

Monday morning re-up: what the Iran war means for Russia, and then a wonkish dive into the Russian underworld, and the risks of new turf wars there

In Moscow's Shadows 239: Wars Foreign and Domestic - In Moscow's Shadows How does the Iran war look to Russia, at once a potential morass for the USA (and Europe) and a case study, many in policy circles feel, on why not to trust Washington. It's also a laboratory for what...

In Moscow's Shadows 239: Wars Foreign and Domestic

First Russia's evolving take on the war in Iran, and in the second half, the personal tensions within the underworld that may lead to a new round of gang wars at home...

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Difficult: Shoigu is a mate, but removing Gerasimov means disruption in the high command, Frankly, I don't think Putin would want to lose either

Is Putin willing to turn on his mates? (Tsalikov and Shoigu in happier times – for them – in 2022, Is former Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu getting worried? The arrest of a longtime associate sees a major corruption …

Is Putin willing to turn on his mates?
A 4th former deputy defence minister, Ruslan Tsalikov, is arrested. Is Shoigu next? Some think so, but that would be a big deal - up to now, Putin protects his close friends and cronies, and that keeps them loyal.
inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2026/03/06/i...

Sadly, quite possibly true

Бывший сенатор Умар Джабраилов совершил самоубийство Он был найден в своей квартире в Москве

Chechen businessman Umar Dzhabrailov committed suicide in Moscow (he had tried before in 2020). A, um, colourful character, whom some say was behind the murder of Paul Tatum, he may have been 1.5 B Rs in debt at the time of his death.
www.vedomosti.ru/society/news...

Monday morning re-up: as the Iran war spreads, might this be good news (on balance) for Russia? And can Russia's technocrats really retool the economy through the budget?

In Moscow's Shadows 238: Bangers and Mish

As the USA, Israel + Iran trade drone + missile strikes ('bangers'), how the war may play out for Russia; then, decoding PM Mishustin’s annual report to the Duma (hopefully not as dull as that sounds).

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

As ordinary Russians tire of war, Putin turns up the propaganda The Kremlin is turning to increasingly far-fetched scaremongering to maintain support for a war the president is unsure how to end

As ordinary Russians tire of war, Putin turns up the propaganda

It feels like ancient history given what's happening in Iran, but last week's 4th anniv of the 2022 invasion brought some bizarre propaganda from the Kremlin. In @thetimes.com, I discuss why

www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

Thank you! And for those who read English, an updated version came out last year

Global Initiative's Conference Room A Talk by Prof. Kelly Greenhill & Prof Mark Galeotti

Just a reminder: I and Prof. Kelly Greenhill will be talking on a free Global Initiative webinar on Monday after the publication of my report 'People as Ammunition: The Structures Behind Russian and Belarusian Weaponized Migration'
gitoc.heysummit.com/talks/people...

Next Thursday, a free 2-hour crisis sim with @conducttr.bsky.social - it's set after the war in Ukraine has ended, asking how the EU handles the sadly inevitable bleed out of weapons. Sign up at:
www.conducttr.com/fault-lines

Well, apparently a shipping mess-up meant that the books for the UK ended up in the US, so while my history of the siege of Kazan is out there (and everywhere as an e-book), it won't be physically in the UK until May. :(. But you can listen to me now draw parallels with today!

In Moscow's Shadows 237: How A 1552 Siege Explains A 2022 Invasion - In Moscow's Shadows A frozen river swallows cannons in 1550; a traffic jam of armour stalls outside Kyiv in 2022. Different centuries, same lesson: wars are won by planning, logistics, and the courage to listen to people...

In Moscow's Shadows 237: How A 1552 Siege Explains A 2022 Invasion
I've a new book out next week, 'Siege of Kazan 1552: Ivan the Terrible breaks the Kazan khanate' (@ospreypublishing.bsky.social), so I compare that campaign with Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Can The West ever be Reconciled with Russia? - Professor Mark Galeotti
Speaking at the excellent @keeleworldaffairs.bsky.social on this provocative title. Reconciliation is neither guaranteed nor a gift, but we must accept that Russia isn't going away
youtu.be/S0bOyRREeVU

For the next couple of days, UK customers can pre-order the paperback of my FORGED IN WAR from @waterstones.bsky.social at 25% off!
www.waterstones.com/book/forged-...

Former army chief seen as Zelenskyy's top rival reveals to AP a rift between them The former Ukrainian army general widely seen as the top political rival to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has spoken publicly for the first time about a deep rift between the two men.

Ukraine's most popular politician, former army chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, gives a pretty wild interview to AP, considering he's the sitting ambassador to the UK. He describes a 2022 raid on his office — an "act of intimidation" by Zelensky — and blames Ze for botching the 2023 counteroffensive.

War Comes Home: How Returning Veterans Are Driving a Surge in Violent Crime in Russia A new report by the support group Vyhod suggests that queer Russians over 45 are among the most vulnerable groups in the LGBTQ+ community in Russia. Their vulnerability has its roots in a decades-long...

Daria Talanova:"Data shows that veterans commit an abnormally high number of murders & serious assaults compared to the overall male population. Veterans are prosecuted for murder/attempted murder 2.5 times more often than average men & twice as often for assaults resulting in grievous bodily harm."

Putin is using the worst of Britain's political errors for his own gain Keir Starmer’s move to spend billions more on defence is being held up as 'proof' Nato is planning an assault on Russia

Putin is using the worst of Britain's political errors for his own gain

I know this will bug some people, but I despair how clumsy policy-making and messaging in the UK offers a rich menu of opportunities for Kremlin propaganda. My latest for @theipaper.com

inews.co.uk/news/world/p...

YouTube video by Mark Galeotti Where is Putin’s Russia Going? (The Bell In Moscow’s Shadows)

Where is Putin’s Russia Going? (The Bell In Moscow’s Shadows)
The inestimable Alex Kolyandr of the indispensable The Bell and I chat about how Putin's Russia has changed over 4 years of war, and where it's going
youtu.be/H-uxorF2xPM?...

Monday morning re-up: Navalny poisoned, Ukraine talks continuing, Epstein case reframed -- and Russia, hybrid, fluid or cyberpunk?

Why Russia used poison to kill Navalny When leading Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny died two years ago, the only real question was not whodunnit, but howdunnit?  His widow, Yulia Navalnaya, quickly blamed poison and said that his ...

Why Russia used poison to kill Navalny
"Poison is, after all, not just a means of murder, but an instrument of terror." My latest for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
spectator.com/article/why-...

But in all seriousness, a lot of good observations in this podcast, from the notion of a "buffet of outrage," to Putin's haphazard attempts to deglobalize Russia, to the true essence of cyberpunk and Russia as a preview of where other countries may be headed in the future, contra Whig History takes.

For the latter, I spin off two good books:

Paul Chaisty & Stephen Whitefield’s How Russians Understand the New Russia (Princeton UP, 2025)

Vera Michlin-Shapir’s Fluid Russia: between the global and the national in the post-Soviet era (Cornell UP, 2021).

In Moscow's Shadows 236: What Is Russia? - In Moscow's Shadows In the first half, I look at the latest news about Navalny's death, what a change in the composition of the Russian negotiation team in Geneva may mean, and why looking for a dubious Russian connectio...

In Moscow's Shadows 236: What Is Russia?

A quick look at the latest on Navalny, Ukraine talks and Epstein, then digging into what kind of country Russia is, shaped by, yet kicking against globalisation

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Because the Ukraine/Europe border will be much more open than the Russia/Europe one

Why Putin's guns are set to flood Britain Increasingly sophisticated weapons - from rare pistols to sniper rifles – are appearing on Europe's black markets from Ukraine's front lines

Why Putin's guns are set to flood Britain
Not actually 'Putin's guns' - the real threat is from the Ukrainian side of the frontline. Still, my latest for @theipaper.com on the depressing truth that an end to the war will likely see illegal guns flow west
inews.co.uk/news/world/p...

In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia - In Moscow's Shadows A mini-episode that paying Patrons heard as part of their Twelve Days of Shadowy Christmas bonuses. Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest, I sit down with author and analyst Ann...

In Moscow's Shadows Bonus Minipod: Rebel Russia

Forget the cliché that Russians accept power without protest. I sit down with author and analyst Anna Arutunyan to unpack a more complicated truth from her @politybooks.bsky.social book 'Rebel Russia'.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Give it time!