Mark Galeotti

Monday morning re-up: Apart from his stamina, what else can we glean from Putin's 4-hour Valdai keynote/Q&A - and how are the themes mirror-imaged in some of the most anti-Putin thinking in the West?

Maailmankuulun brittitutkijan viesti Putinille: Historialla ei voi perustella nykyisyyttä Professori Mark Galeottin mukaan Putin joutuu perustelemaan Ukrainan sotaa historialla, koska hän on pettänyt lupaukset elintason nostamisesta.

For those who can read Finnish or don't mind using Google Translate (which does a pretty decent job), an interview on the release of my book FORGED IN WAR in translation that inevitably wanders to Ukraine, drones, etc
yle.fi/a/74-20185609

I do say that the *news* (foreign news, at least) in it is still good - it's the opinion pieces that (with the exception of Tom Sharpe's naval stuff) is unhinged or simply downright wrong

And this stops drones how? And given that sabotage operations have been carried out by locals recruited online, this stops that how? This is counterproductive and xenophobic in my view.

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai - In Moscow's Shadows Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the ...

In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai

Key themes from Putin's 4-hour outing are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics. Everyone wants to oversimplify a complex world.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Will Europe’s ‘drone wall’ really defend us? Airport closures and other suspected Russian interference is showing Nato countries what’s in store if we don’t co-operate and rearm

Will Europe’s ‘drone wall’ really defend us?
The answer is, of course, both yes and no. Or rather that it is neither a quick nor perfect defence. My thoughts for @thetimes.com
www.thetimes.com/world/europe...

The loneliness of the long-distance war supporter in Russia Irritation and isolation is the flipside of the ‘comfort’ culture. And perhaps what partly feeds demand for it. Most of all, though, war supporters feel lonely.

The loneliness of the long-distance war supporter in Russia
An insightful post from @jeremymorris.bsky.social - how accumulating discontents and concerns caused by the war manifest not as resistance so much as brittle and irritable efforts to cosplay normality
postsocialism.org/2025/10/03/t...

Monday morning re-up: Putin has not cunningly led us all to this state of play, so much as blundered and stumbled here. So what blunders may lie in his (and our) future?

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief? - In Moscow's Shadows We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. M...

In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?

We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet maybe a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders?

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

I was late getting to this episode, but it's a crucial one!

Especially helpful is Mark's comparison of what's going on now to the 2015 Turkish shootdown of a Russian aircraft.

You also get a snarky book review, which is always fun from Mark.

PS: It's pronounced Emperor PalpaTEEN, not PalpaTYNE. 😉

Monday morning re-up: Yes, there is a threat from Russia. But mischaracterising it and, more to the point, presenting every potential setback as existential for NATO/the West risks actually inflaming the problem and encouraging Putin to push harder

In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe? - In Moscow's Shadows MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala'...

In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
Are we under threat? Maybe that’s up to us. Does the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position? www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

In Moscow's Shadows 117: Security Politics and the President Who Can't Change His Spots - In Moscow's Shadows The Russian police are increasingly under pressure. The National Guard is getting into the mercenary game. There is talk (probably empty) of Wagner being reconstituted under Evgeny Prigozhin's son Pav...

On hearing the news that Putin's fixer Kozak has resigned, I'm reminded of my assessment in the 2nd half of this episode back in October '23, when he was being touted as a potential successor. I concluded Russia could do worse. So, of course, he's gone www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

The point is that no Western troops is likely to be a Russian condition for a ceasefire

We Need to Talk About Putin Meet the world's most dangerous man. Who is the real Vladimir Putin? What does he want? And what will he do next? Despite the millions of words written on Putin's Russia, the West still fails to tr...

Delighted to announce that the revised and updated edition of my slender primer, WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT PUTIN, taking events through the invasion of Ukraine to today, comes out (in UK) from @PenguinUKBooks/@EburyPublishing on 13 November.
www.penguin.co.uk/books/439532...

Why Putin's military drills are good news for the West The past few days' Zapad-2025 (West-2025) exercises involved perhaps 30,000 Russian and Belarusian soldiers.

Why Putin’s military drills are good news for the West
My take on #Zapad2025 , with an admittedly slightly tongue in cheek ending, for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-...

Неудобная правда о выборах в России. Миллиарды в трубу. А что на выходе? На "электоральные шоу" миллиарды рублей просто спускают в трубу, а на выходе народ получает кандидата, который был предопределён. "Не имеет никакого отношения к публичной демократии", - считает экспер...

"The only real party left today is the party in power." I don't necessarily disagree, but it's striking to find such a full-throated condemnation of Russia's "expensive theatricalization of political life" in the nationalist Tsargrad news outlet
tsargrad.tv/dzen/neudobn...

As I understand it, issues were (1) practical difficulty lining up on target when the Geran is flying at around 100 mph and the F-16's stall speed is something like 115+ mph, and (2) concern as to where all the rounds that don't hit end up when they fall from the sky (a 1-second burst = 100 rounds)

We're witnessing Putin’s reckless bid to get the Ukraine deal he wants Drones, missiles and threats – this is negotiation, Putin-style

We're witnessing Putin’s reckless bid to get the Ukraine deal he wants
Drones, threats, all part of negotiation, Putin-style. My take for @theipaper.com
inews.co.uk/news/world/d...

Monday morning re-up: so much of the talk about European troops in Ukraine is, frankly, performative bluster. What might real security guarantees look like?

In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work? - In Moscow's Shadows Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth ...

In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?

What might and might not work? Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Putin’s ageing general leads Russia’s march towards gerontocracy General Gerasimov, architect of the brutal Ukraine war, is unpopular — but the president always prizes loyalty over competence

Putin’s ageing general leads Russia’s march towards gerontocracy
My latest for @thetimes.com, on 70-year-old Gerasimov's apparent retention in post, as a symbol of ossification of strategy and leadership alike
www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

Ukraine increasingly finds Russian and Belarusian electronics in missiles Ukraine is finding more and more Russian and Belarusian electronics in the wreckage of missiles fired at it by Moscow, a senior Ukrainian official said.

Zelensky’s commissioner for sanctions policy reveals that Ukraine is finding more and more Russian and Belarusian electronics in the wreckage of missiles fired at it by Moscow, suggesting that Russia is increasingly able to replace the Western components it used to smuggle into its weapons.

In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War - In Moscow's Shadows There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, argu...

Reuters recently raised the dangers as and when Russia's angry + traumatised soldiers come home. A reminder: I covered this in my podcast back in June:
In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

YouTube video by Mark Galeotti What to Make of Putin's Drones Over Poland?

What to Make of Putin's Drones Over Poland?
Some initial thoughts. tldr: neither attack on NATO nor accident, it's a probe and a warning
youtu.be/Dgg-FFpcwV0

Thanks!

This episode is a good reminder of what makes or doesn't make a coup successful, as well as what a constitutional crisis can wreck upon a state (a bit of a warning to America there, I'm afraid, after January 6th and looking forward...).

Monday morning re-up: History's reverberations today. Did the hardline coup plotters of 1991 kinda win in the end, and did Yeltsin's victory in 1993 doom democracy? Sadly, my answer is yes to both.

In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups - In Moscow's Shadows The 1991 August Coup and the 1993 October Coup are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently pave...

In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups

The 1991 August and the 1993 October Coups are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently paved the way for Putin.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

My first in-person book event for HOMO CRIMINALIS, at the ever-wonderful @waterstones.bsky.social Gower St is tonight, and I'm delighted to see it's sold out. Online events are one thing, but there's no substitute for three dimensions! Looking forward to the chance to talk all things criminal