Mark Galeotti

Interesting point about raiders - a fascinating example of the knock-on effects of a weak legal system

Russian companies are apparently having to spend on average 39% of their profit servicing their debts
Can anyone more econ-literate than me tell me what analogous figures for the UK, US, EU or whatever are? All I can find are debt interest to INCOME not profit figures
Thanks!

1. 🧵On the podcast this week, @markgaleotti.bsky.social joins @faisalalyafai.bsky.social to talk organized crime, narco-submarines and Miami gangsters — as set out in Mark’s new book “Homo Criminalis” — as well as a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine war.

newlinesmag.com/podcast/lift...

I am, but these days just don't have the time, alas

Only the title is in Italian, I'm afraid!

A lot more details, plus various quirky historical stories, on my 1510 blog: wordplay1510.wordpress.com

Gran Meccanismo 2023 ENNIE NOMINATED FOR BEST WRITINGA roleplaying game of fantastical inventions and Machiavellian politics in Renaissance Italy.It is the Year of Our Lord 151…

Yes, not my usual Russia-focused fare, but if at any point you've been tempted by my Renaissance Florence-meets-Cyberpunk 'clockpunk' roleplaying game GRAN MECCANISMO, it's at 30% off on the @ospreygames.bsky.social site. A fine gift for you or anyone else!
www.ospreypublishing.com/uk/gran-mecc...

Good podcast on Russia's forest spirits that reminded me of Sibelius's description of Tapiola:

"Wide-spread they stand, the Northland's dusky forests,
Ancient, mysterious, brooding savage dreams;
Within them dwells the Forest's mighty God,
And wood-sprites in the gloom weave magic secrets."

Monday morning re-up: thoughts on the current Ukraine negotiations including the whole 'trust' issue, and then how to draw a line between medieval Russians leaving milk and bread for the domovoi household spirit and modern Russian strategic culture...

Fair point, but pre-emption doesn't mean suicidal - in many ways the whole 'hybrid war' campaign and efforts to divide the West are examples of such pre-emption

Inside the mind of Putin's real hatchet man It seems that Yuri Ushakov, not Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, is the prime mover behind Russia’s negotiating position.

Inside the mind of Putin’s real hatchet man
I wouldn't call him a hatchet man, but Putin's foreign policy adviser these days has more sway than foreign minister Lavrov. A profile, for the @thespectator1828.bsky.social blog
www.spectator.co.uk/article/yuri...

In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods - In Moscow's Shadows There's not all that much to say about the Ukraine peace negotiations as delegations head to the USA and Russia, but I cover a few issues, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the d...

In Moscow's Shadows 226: Monsters in the Woods

A few points on the peace process, from Trump's 'businessified' approach to geopolitics to the departures of Yermak and Kozak. Then, folklore as a parable for Russian strategic culture. Honestly.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Russia’s next move: which Putin will turn up to the peace talks? The Russian leader could play diplomat, accountant or mischief-maker when Steve Witkoff’s US delegation arrives in Moscow

Russia’s next move: which Putin will turn up to the peace talks?

Warmonger, diplomat, accountant or mischief-maker? My latest for @thetimes.com

www.thetimes.com/world/russia...

I don't buy that for a moment

How the Kremlin spins Yermak’s resignation Yesterday’s resignation of Andrii Yermak, Volodymyr Zelensky’s chief of staff, strong right hand and eminence grise, is clearly a seismic shock to Ukrainian politics. In many ways especially as Zel…

How the Kremlin spins Yermak’s resignation

A conundrum for Russian propagandists: how to make hay of this event without giving Kyiv credit or letting readers draw comparisons with corruption in their own country? I dissect one example.

inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2025/11/29/h...

Spanien 1936/ Ukraine 2025: Wir sind alle Ukraine Welche historischen Ereignisse können uns verstehen helfen, was da gerade zwischen Moskau, Washington und Kiew abgeht? Eine Auswahl

Cyberpunk-Historiker @markgaleotti.bsky.social​ zieht eine Linie vom gescheiterten Aufstand 1825 zum Wagner-Putsch 2023. Eine Hörtipp-Empfehlung von @evakonzett.bsky.social​ und eine Analyse, warum die Russische Bevölkerung den Westen nicht als Paradies sieht ↓

The 30-mile stretch of land that will dictate the future of Europe The battle over this contested region could signal the collapse of any peace deal

The 30-mile stretch of land that will dictate the future of Europe

A quick piece for @theipaper.com on that piece of Donetsk region that could well the doom of any hopes of a peace agreement

inews.co.uk/news/world/3...

Monday morning re-up: the proposed Ukraine deal framework (while we wait and see what revisions followed the US-Ukraine meeting) and the 1825 Decembrist Revolt, and what it may say about the situation today

Essentially, yes: there is some scope for Western escalation, but there is also scope for Russian escalation

In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine? - In Moscow's Shadows In the first half of the podcast, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal, which is only a foundation for proper negotiations, especially in terms of what it is not.In the second, I spin off Su...

In Moscow's Shadows 225: A Chance for Peace in Ukraine?

In the 1st half, I look at the proposed Ukraine peace deal (and what it's not).
In the 2nd, I spin off Rabow-Edling's excellent book on the 1825 Decembrist Revolt to consider its modern resonances.

www.buzzsprout.com/1026985/epis...

Because they are Russian sovereign assets. I don’t see why you think otherwise

Budapest Agreements provided NO security guarabtees. They simply said that signatories wouldn't invade Ukraine - which Russia clearly broke - but the only 'sanction' was that the other countries would raise any breach with the UN, which they did. That's all that was entailed.

If they don't, then the plan falls through. But the point is that this may be the start of a process which could create and fix them.

If you read the thread through, you'll see that I say security guarantees need to be firmed up and fleshed out, that this is just the potential basis for proper talks, no more. But feel free to enjoy your moral certitude

I’m certainly not saying this is a *good* plan. There are some weird anomalies (START-1?) and whole legions of devils in the details, from monitoring to security guarantees. But arguably it’s the closest to the basis for talks that we could have expected 8/end

Sanctions relief is staged, likely not complete, and Moscow must allow $100B of its frozen funds to go to Ukraine reconstruction. That’s better than I imagined, even though the form of reconstruction looks a little exploitative/colonial (to US gain). 7/

Withdrawal from the rest of Donetsk Region continues to be a tough one; making this a DMZ *may* make it easier to swallow, as it addresses the issue of the region being used as a springboard for future attacks. 6/

There continue to be claims that Ukraine would be denied long-range weapons. I’m not seeing that (am I just reading incomplete versions of the text), just a commitment to not actually striking Moscow or St P “without cause” 5/

That’s also just the standing army – to which there would presumably be a substantial mobilisation reserve in case of war. As many as Ukraine might like? Probably not – but the country would be by no means defenceless 4/

Capping the Ukrainian army to 600,000 isn’t as draconian as I imagine the Russians wanted. When I talked to some British MOD analysts a couple of months back, they expressed doubts Kyiv could afford more than 500,000 long-term 3/