Christopher Clary

A billion here, a billion there and pretty soon…

Why regime change in Iran is easier said than done Change cannot be delivered from the skies, nor imposed through external pressure alone. It must be nurtured from within, supported by sustained diplomatic engagement, and informed by humility about th...

Some thoughts on regime change in Iran (less-ish relevant now, but who knows)

indianexpress.com/article/opin...

a man with a beard says " now that 's a name i 've not heard in a long time . ALT: a man with a beard says " now that 's a name i 've not heard in a long time .

Christensen and Snyder 1990?

This is a perfectly interesting little ethical topic, but I can't possibly understand why my human subjects training needs to talk about it before I can get permission to conduct a public opinion survey.

I'll believe AGI is here when the MS Word numbering/outlining feature works predictably.

When I teach about intelligence problems, for years I’ve drawn on Prof. Rovner’s book, Fixing the Facts. So when I saw news stories about potential intelligence politicization, I knew exactly who I wanted to ask about it.

This article by Raag Yadava on the Indus Waters Treaty is worth your time. One small excerpt on the China angle. www.theindiaforum.in/internationa...

For me the big takeaway is that India's ability to strike Pakistan at range has been greatly enhanced by recent acquisitions of missiles, guided bombs, and anti-air systems. That will worry Rawalpindi, and clearly did during the crisis, perhaps explaining the resort to ballistic missiles.

The events of May 2025 do not settle how binding or expansive India’s nuclear no first use commitment is. But they definitely show how tempting the prospect of counterforce is for the Indian commentariat. Whether senior officials buy-in is another matter.

A little over 6 years ago, Vipin Narang & I argued that better intelligence capabilities, more precise conventional and dual-use delivery vehicles, & improving air and missile defenses were combining to create “counterforce temptations” in the Indian system. direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

Thanks to @ethrelkeld.bsky.social and the entire Stimson South Asia team for their quick work getting this through the publication process.

New publication: "Four Days in May: The India-Pakistan Crisis of 2025" up now at the Stimson Center
@stimsoncenter.bsky.social . Executive summary in the screenshots, but all 12,000 words and 123 footnotes at the link. www.stimson.org/2025/four-da...

“Are you afraid of ideologies?”

“A little bit,” the witness answers. A pause.

“Or even a lot.”

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...

“My view is that any time two nuclear-armed states start exchanging ordnance, the risk of nuclear war has increased over the pre-crisis baseline in some immeasurable manner: This is because of the essentially unpredictable character of warfare.” Well said, @nktpnd.bsky.social

Yes, I understood. I was just saying I had a lot of citations to things without a DOI

Good to know re: DOI. had a lot of government website links—official statements and the like—and may have bumped into problems as a result.

ChatGPT is pretty good at making a footnote in the appropriate style if you just give it a website URL to draw info from, but about 25% of the time it just makes stuff, sometimes little things, sometimes big things (changes titles etc) in the citation text. Which seems less than ideal.

Pleased to have a chance to chat with @nktpnd.bsky.social about last week’s crisis.

I make no promises about the future!

My article from Sunday's Times of India on this new era in the India-Pakistan rivalry.

My chart of subjective conflict risks in South Asia over the last 40 years or so.

I was really pleased to have a chance to talk to @gavinesler.bsky.social about the origins of the current crisis and where we might be headed.

Pakistani drone attacks ‘neutralised’, says India, as skirmishes escalate [FREE TO READ] New Delhi knocks out air defence system in barrage on Lahore and Rawalpindi

“Attacks on cities by military drones have never occurred in the India-Pakistan rivalry,” says @claryc.bsky.social

“The old rules have been thrown out the window” | on.ft.com/4m7Ik3A via @financialtimes.com

Fascinating conversation about India - Pakistan and Kashmir as a flashpoint for big power rivalry with Professor Chris Clary @claryc.bsky.social

X will always tell you 400% of what is happening. You just have to figure out the correct 100%.

Multiple loud explosions heard in Pakistani Kashmir -Reuters witness Multiple loud explosions were heard in the Pakistani Kashmir area close to the mountains around the city of Muzaffarabad after midnight on Wednesday, multiple Reuters witnesses said.

Quite a big claim from Reuters. "four local government sources in Indian Kashmir told Reuters that three fighter jets had crashed in separate areas of the Himalayan region during the night. All three pilots had been hospitalised, the sources added" www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

I’ll have to go back and revise the table. 15 days.

I’m pleased to have had an opportunity to contribute to this edited volume ably pulled together by Zachary Davis assessing the legacy of track-1.5 and track-2 initiatives for the US-India, US-Pakistan, and India-Pakistan relationships. cgsr.llnl.gov/sites/cgsr/f...

The stand-off precision strike revolution is new. We don't have a huge dataset of what normal looks like in these tit-for-tat struggles. But based on the limited dataset that we do have, we are not out of the woods yet—and arguably are in the most dangerous part of the woods.

I’m sure Trump’s sixth national security advisor will be the charm!