Tim Murphy

Fifth TPU poll in a row with Labour edging National

New Taxpayers Union/Curia poll out:
Labour - 31.6 (-1.7)
National - 30.0 (-0.2)
Greens - 10.8 (+1.6)
Act - 8.9 (+0.3)
NZFirst - 8.3 (-1.0)
TPM - 3.1 (-0.2)

Centre right 61 seats to 59 Centre left

Notable for Greens up, not sinking as in 1News poll

Former rate-capping Clutha Mayor Bryan Cadogan tells RNZ Midday Report that the Govt-imposed rate cap won’t work - wrong policy at the wrong time because of infrastructure demands since his caps.
Says Govt’s set a trap with a ‘one dimensional answer to a complex problem.’

New poll on Labour's capital gains tax, from Horizon:

41 percent in favour (21% strongly)
39 percent opposed (25% strongly)
Those 18-35, and 75 plus more oppose; other age groups more in favour.

In NZ context, Labour would surely view a split result, this early, as a positive

RNZ National's 500k audience puts it back to 3rd among all stations nationwide - from 8th not long ago - Newstalk ZB now 100k ahead on 600k, The Breeze second on 547k

Morning Report's 352k compares with Newstalk's Hosking show at 424k (down 9k) - and at 72k gap closest for ages.

RNZ is having a great finish to its year, with its radio audience up again
-RNZ National topping 500,000 listeners in an average week, up 25,000
- Morning Report up 13k (and 8k in Auckland) to 352k
- Up in Auckland all main shows
- website 1.7m monthly audience - record for RNZ

six separate reactions to hearing that the grand jury didn't see the operative indictment in the Comey case, all variations on "LOL" or "Holy shit" or the like.

when all the lawyers on your timeline go off at once

They really are going with immaculate asymmetry of tariffs, which didn't raise prices when they were imposed but will cut them when they're withdrawn.

RNZ increases its online audience again, to another record in October - nudging 1.7m unique users in the Nielsen survey.
1News - 803k (up 101k)
RNZ - 1.698m (up 30k)
NZH - 1.96m (up 100k)
Stuff - 2.23m (down 70k)

Former Act Party President Tim Jago loses all aspects of his appeal against conviction for historical sexual offending and his sentence of 2.5 years’ jail.

Three judges of Court of Appeal say the imprisonment sentence was “stern” but open to the judge and in accord with law.

Marina Hyde in the Guardian on UK leaders.

Who’d fit these categories in NZ?:

“We either get inadequate chancers (eg Johnson or Liz Truss) or chance inadequates (eg Theresa May, Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer), all of whom are forever being presented as the next true hope.”

Five Eyes now Three Ayes and Two Noes

Think all is good. Other things he wants to do in retirement!

Lovely moment at the Auckland Council end-of term valedictory speeches when councillor Sharon Stewart paused to pay tribute to Herald chronicler of Auckland Simon Wilson who she announced is also retiring at year’s end.
Wayne Brown: I had no idea Simon was retiring, after three years of training him

Ruth Richardson vs Nicola Willis this morning:

“The Government must stop pretending that the current approach will work. The attacks on me and others who are pointing out the fiscal elephants in the room do Ms Willis, and all New Zealanders, a disservice."

Think some of the minors were down - TOP for example shed a point or more. Not sure how the rest works

Latest Taxpayers Union/Curia poll has left-bloc ahead by one seat and able to govern if election held today.
Act big mover

Lab - 33.8 (up 0.2)
Nats - 33.1 (up 1.2)
Greens - 10.7 (up 0.9)
NZ First - 8.1 (up 0.3)
Act - 6.7 (down 1.9)
TPM - 4.3 (up 1.1).

61 seats left, 60 right

Just radio I think Bill

Morning report's audience nudges up to 338k, (up 5.4k)
but
It fell in what RNZ sees as the all important Auckland market by 3.1k while growing in - wait for it, Wellington.
Morning Report's 338k compares with
Hosking Breakfast on ZB 433k (down 6k)
So, back within the 100k range

RNZ National's slight rise puts it back to 6th biggest (from 8th) for cumulative audience across a week of all stations.
Commercial stations' results last week:
Newstalk ZB - 620k (down 27k)
Breeze 558k (down 55k)
More FM 514k (up 14k)
ZM 500k (up 400)
Edge 489k (up 7k)

And, just like that:

RNZ's radio audience has increased for the first time since 2022:
RNZ National up 8000 to 475k
RNZ Concert also up 8000 to 170k
in the latest GfK radio survey.

(RNZ has just had a highly critical report on its letting radio listenership slip)

NZME CEO Michael Boggs adds, in investor briefing, that the editorial advisory board would be expected to provide "constructive challenge" to the editor Murray Kirkness and his team.

NZME says of its new editorial advisory board: "The EAB does not have executive or decision-making powers but will provide independent counsel to the Chief Content Officer and the NZME Board on editorial standards, audience development and digital transformation initiatives."

Webling is interesting: last bobbed up in media as a comms adviser during merger fight at TVNZ, was press sec for 3 National leaders (English, Brash, Key) and ministerial staffer for Nat Simon Power.
Pagani is seen as from the right end of the left in politics

NZME announces its 'editorial advisory board' to oversee NZ Herald editorial strategy (and second-guess issues of 'balance' and 'political leaning') - is chaired by ex Herald premium editor Miri Alexander, lawyer/Grenon man Philip Crump, ZB panellist Josie Pagani and ex Nats press sec Brent Webling.

Numbers matter:
Govt: 'final settlement' for cancelling the IRex ferries from Hyundai is $144m.
KiwiRail: total cost of settlement is actually $222m (incl deposit and part settlement)
+
Total cost of abandoned iRex is $671m (incl land-based costs, project mgmt, wind down)

Do you ever just rewatch the final lineout of the Rugby World Cup 2021, played in 2022? No?

You really should. It’s one of the best moments of my life.

Latest TPU/Curia political poll calls a hung Parliament, with Labour overtaking a falling National and the coalition support parties slipping
Labour - 33.6 (up 2)
National - 31.8 (-2.1)
Greens - 9.8 (+0.4)
Act - 8.6 (-0.5)
NZF - 7.8 (-2.0)
TPM - 3.2 (-0.3)
Left/rt 61 seats each

AI robots curating Herald site strike back in June Nielsen audience stats:
Stuff 2,260,000 uniques (- 70k)
Herald 1,890,000 uniques (+ 140k)
RNZ 1,260,000
1News 620,000
Stuff's lead at 370k still big, but gap to Herald drops 210k. RNZ off 1.5m high earlier in '26

Interestingly Stuff appears to be stretching its lead over the Herald site which has stories and content now curated and highlighted by AI …
The humans seem to be leading the machines/algorithms in these earlyish months…