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Brun

@brunfpl.bsky.social

Analytically (ill) informed sports fan. FPL player. Inaugural winner of Elite Analytic 64 League. EV chaser, jam hoarder, variance hugger.

1,328 Followers  |  392 Following  |  451 Posts  |  Joined: 13.11.2024
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Posts by Brun (@brunfpl.bsky.social)

Yeah it’s tough without being able to adjust for those fixtures. All I’d say is with the extra free FTs we get in 16 for AFCON and, if you’ve got say FH left, the moves may actually not be too impacted by the schedule as there’s still a lot of means to manage whatever comes

30.10.2025 20:21 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Always been Review and just him mate. Sertalp used his data for Optimized site but now does his own thing with Solio

30.10.2025 20:13 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

It’s @fplreview.com you’d need to ask to get an answer on this mate

30.10.2025 19:05 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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GW5: 49 and a green of ~100k. 2FTs already used for GW6 with FH and Wc to fall back on if issues arise.

23.09.2025 22:33 — 👍 4    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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GW5: Rolling. Will have 2 FTs in 6 which leaves lots of paths open to me and that’s far more valuable than any singular move I can make this week. Good luck all, especially those with the same team or a triple Leeds stack.

20.09.2025 08:52 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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GW4: 74 points and a green arrow. Not sure how sustainable relying on Salah injury time returns will continue to be but happy to take the points. Rolling into GW6 would be ideal but will be dependent on Murillo’s injury. FH6, WC6 or saving those chips for later all on the table

14.09.2025 21:30 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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GW3: Green arrow to just outside top 1mil. 3FTs to see what crops up at end of transfer window and through the IB. Can fall back to WC in worst case scenarios. Enjoy the break all

31.08.2025 20:48 — 👍 10    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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GW3: Rollin. Variance will determine whether this is Chamillionaire or Weird Al Yankovic version of the early 2000’s classic. May be valuing info too high but hoping the squad is strong enough for this GW. Will review paths in GW4 post window closing & IB. Kermit gif ready incase

30.08.2025 11:12 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
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GW2: FPL is so back baby. Not gonna complain as many very good players have been FPL’d far worse than I so far this season. Stay safe out there everyone and remember there are cup games midweek too before so don’t start getting all twitchy with that transfer finger

25.08.2025 21:30 — 👍 8    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Most probably will but I really, really hope from a Leeds’ perspective that doesn’t happen

22.08.2025 17:21 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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GW2: Rolling, Palmer captain and benching Paq over Thiago after bringing my own mins to the party. Good luck gang.

22.08.2025 17:06 — 👍 14    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

You’ll be fine mate, 57 isn’t that poor and there’s plenty of time to catch up

21.08.2025 22:02 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0
Data visualisation.
Title: "How much harder is the premier league than the championship?"
Horizontal x-axis: "A look at the change in teams' ratio of goals scored to goals conceded between seasons".

Body of the plot shows three frequency/density distributions ("bell curves", roughly, showing an aggregate view of where along the x-axis the data has tended to collect):

The "season after relegation" distribution shows a bi-modal (two-humped) distribution with the tallest peak at around +100%.

The "season after promotion" distribution shows a roughly Normal distribution with mean just below -100%.

The "same division as before" distribution is approximately Normal with mean 0%.

The caption reads: "Where a change of -100% is roughly equivalent to scoring 50% more goals than your opponents one season followed by 50% less than your opponents the next".

Data visualisation. Title: "How much harder is the premier league than the championship?" Horizontal x-axis: "A look at the change in teams' ratio of goals scored to goals conceded between seasons". Body of the plot shows three frequency/density distributions ("bell curves", roughly, showing an aggregate view of where along the x-axis the data has tended to collect): The "season after relegation" distribution shows a bi-modal (two-humped) distribution with the tallest peak at around +100%. The "season after promotion" distribution shows a roughly Normal distribution with mean just below -100%. The "same division as before" distribution is approximately Normal with mean 0%. The caption reads: "Where a change of -100% is roughly equivalent to scoring 50% more goals than your opponents one season followed by 50% less than your opponents the next".

New football season got me thinking about the difference in difficulty between the English Premier League and Championship.

I took a look at how teams' ratios of goals scored to goals conceded changed between seasons over the last 10 years:

19.08.2025 16:07 — 👍 13    🔁 4    💬 0    📌 1
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GW1: Took the ~14EV on BB which sets me down a flexible path with a bit of a hybrid team. BB didn’t come through in terms of RP but rest of the squad carried me to an OK week. Aim is to roll as much as possible with GW4 a nice point to assess timings for other chips

19.08.2025 08:48 — 👍 6    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

I’m not particularly bullish on them long term but think that first fixture is plum and makes sense to attack for those on BB1 mate

04.08.2025 10:33 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Oh I didn’t mean it as a criticism,we all know we need a new GK & I was interested in your views on who we should go for. Agree that I like the rumoured list. When you look at the GKs from those teams who stayed up, they need to be more than just a Mes upgrade and actually be good. 🤞 we get it right

17.07.2025 16:47 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

With this in mind, how much can a good shot stopper help in the us in the prem, considering even a solidly set up promoted team is likely to be lower league for xGC regardless. Who should Leeds be targeting in this position and why is it Lucas Perri?

16.07.2025 18:30 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Really enjoyed this guys. One thing you didn’t touch on was GK. Looking at the last 4 teams to go up and stay up (huge sample I know) they had Raya, Leno, Henderson and Neto in goal. 2/4 had +psxg that season and 3/4 have careers with +psxg (Raya is hovering at -0.1/90 and has seasons with + numbers

16.07.2025 18:30 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

I just can’t help to feel that you can spend that fee/wages more effectively on either better players who can start (I don’t think we want him getting more than 1500mins in an ideal world) or role players with more room to grow and develop

16.07.2025 13:49 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

I’m not particularly moved by his previous season’s data, especially considering that his age means there’s no resale value here. He’s a fine squad player and if he doesn’t limit our other activity I can kind of get on board.

16.07.2025 13:49 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

I agree that he didn’t have as much license to get forward last season when he came on (due to game state and the makeup of that midfield 3) but I’m not sure he was ever the anchor and the non creative/xg numbers are still worrying if you factor in the role change.

16.07.2025 13:49 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0
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Blud

15.07.2025 19:20 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Someone talk me round on Leeds’ business so far please. Early in the window I know but feeling pretty underwhelmed (not only with the actual signings but some of the rumours too).

15.07.2025 19:14 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Good luck to my fellow sickos playing any version of CWC fantasy. May never touch grass at this rate

14.06.2025 22:24 — 👍 6    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

If there was ever a time for Blue Sky to launch group messsges…

23.05.2025 15:48 — 👍 2    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

For now I’m enjoying watching us pressure free go out and play the type of football we did today. Not often we get to just sit and watch stress free as Leeds fans but it was a great experience tonight

28.04.2025 21:56 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

He genuinely is. With the intensity of the prem and the increased defending we’re going to have to do in that league you’ve got to utilise guys like him more. Actually think our core is a good base to build from if recruitment is handled by the club and Farke is less stubborn in his lineups/approach

28.04.2025 21:55 — 👍 1    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Logging back in just to say Leeds United are massive and free Largie Ramazani

28.04.2025 21:39 — 👍 5    🔁 0    💬 1    📌 0

Never truly left mate! Not like us to do it the easier way either but glad to not be stressing going into these final couple of games

26.04.2025 16:02 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0

Clear skill issue in my view

26.04.2025 07:04 — 👍 0    🔁 0    💬 0    📌 0