Marcel Roman

Me: “The fixation on causal estimates is not the appropriate direction social science…What descriptive analysis provides us with are facts. Facts are nouns. Causal analysis gives us contextual estimates. They are adjectives. In the grammar of social science, we should prefer nouns to adjectives.”

ANES Data Release! electionstudies.org/data-center/...

The 3-wave ANES panel is now available. It merges data from 3 election studies (2016-2020-2024), the first time the ANES has collected interviews of the same respondents across 3 presidential elections.

Graph showing life expectancy trends in 23 higher income countries between 1980 and 2024. Life expectancy increased over time in all countries. In 1980, the US is in the middle of the pack, but their life expectancy gains were slower than that of other countries, and by around 2002, the US had the lowest life expectancy of all countries. Over the next 20 years, US life expectancy increasingly tracks away from the trajectories of other countries, as their life expectancy stalls while other countries life expectancy continues to climb

This graph never fails to be shocking: "The US has experienced the earliest and greatest slowdown in life expectancy improvements among higher-income countries, reported Eileen Crimmins. “We have horrible life expectancy—and it’s getting worse and worse”"

www.prb.org/resources/se...

Sam Zacher & I have a paper under review basically to this effect. Among Democrats, renters have distinct left preferences in candidates (e.g. Sanders) and housing reforms (broadly YIMBYism). We find less distinction among Dem renters and homeowners with national social policy prefs.

Logo of JREP with the hashtag OpenAccess, displayed on a gray background dotted with red circles.

#OpenAccess from @journalrep.bsky.social -

Mothers and Monsters: How Black Mothers’ Encounters with Police Influence Their Community-Based Political Activity - https://cup.org/3JzjM58

- Ayana Best

#FirstView #JREP10

More important upcoming work on political socialization. Bit of a longer wait, though, for @robertocarlos.bsky.social's book.

press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

Gendered Xenophobia? Gendered Interpretation of Immigration and Labor Market Vulnerability - Jieun S. Park, 2025 Why do women tend to oppose immigration more than men? I argue that this opposition to immigration is caused by women’s labor market vulnerabilities. As immigra...

Excited to share my new publication in Comparative Political Studies📝

"Gendered Xenophobia? Gendered Interpretation of Immigration and Labor Market Vulnerability"

+Grateful to my advisors, colleagues, grant fellowships, editors and reviewers for their support and feedback!

doi.org/10.1177/0010...

Polls have a harder time making vote proportion estimates for racial minority groups than for white voters. See the higher variation in the figure. E.g., polls mostly agree that Hispanic voters reduced their support for the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024, but disagree widely on how much.

Everyday Democracy How the everyday habits and attitudes of ordinary liberals and conservatives shape the health of American democracy. In Everyday Democracy, Jeffrey M. Berry, James M. Glaser, and Deborah J. Schildkrau...

Happy to share that my new book with Jeff Berry and Jim Glaser is now available from @uchicagopress.bsky.social! (preorder elsewhere til 12/2, but available now through Chicago)
🧵
press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

Most (but not all) Black economists come to economics with a worldview that is outside of the mainstream of the profession. This typically includes insights from sociology since inequality, identity, and networks are areas with a longer history there. For an introduction to this, see the 🧵 below 👇

Thinking a lot about @michaelsierraa.bsky.social book "The Danger Imperative" about how police are trained to constantly think the entire world is out to get them (even if it is not)

every now and then I find one of these slipped underneath my office door lol

Chicago's children are getting caught in the chaos of immigration crackdowns In Chicago, children and families have been traumatized by an immigration enforcement action involving tear gas.

This is not specific to Chicago. This is everywhere that ICE & co. are operating en masse, which is a lot of places, including the DC area. The feds are acting out a long-standing white-nationalist fantasy of terrorizing migrant communities in the quixotic hope of preserving racial dominance.

Escaping Poverty Requires Almost 20 Years With Nearly Nothing Going Wrong The MIT economist Peter Temin argues that economic inequality results in two distinct classes. And only one of them has any power.

“…the construction of class and race, and racial prejudice, have created a system that keeps members of the lower classes precisely where they are.” www.theatlantic.com/business/arc...

Inside the Role of Religion in Latino Support for Trump What we need to understand about Latino voters and how to win them back.

Check out this smart post by Dr. Kim Cárdenas on the role of religion on Latino support for Trump
open.substack.com/pub/hitstrat...

Glass storefront door in Brighton Park, with sign in English and Spanish, reading: ATTENTION ICE/CBP AGENTS STOP YOU ARE NOT PERMITTED ENTRANCE INTO THIS BUSINESS WITHOUT A VALID JUDICIAL WARRANT ATENCION AGENTES DE ICE/CBP STOP NO SE LE PERMITE LA ENTRADA A ESTE NEGOCIO SIN UNA ORDEN JUDICIAL VALIDA

Glass storefront door with sign reading: PRIVATE PROPERTY NO ICE YOU ARE NOT PERMITTED TO ENTER NON-PUBLIC AREAS OF THIS SPACE WITHOUT A VALID JUDICIAL WARRANT SIGNED BY A FEDERAL JUDGE and a second sign: PLEASE USE DOOR ON 47TH ST. BACK OF THE YARDS

signs like these are up all over Chicago cafes and storefronts (here, cafes in Brighton Park and Back of the Yards) warning ICE not to enter without a judicial warrant

When ICE abducts people from Belmont Ave and Broadway no one anywhere in Chicago is safe. This area, E Lakeview, is predominantly white and relatively affluent.

The New York Times’ “Moderation Advantage” Is a Statistical Illusion After accounting for money and incumbency the supposed electoral bonus for moderate candidates vanishes entirely.

NYT pushed its “Dems must go moderate” take again yesterday. In a new piece out today, @adambonica.bsky.social shows even more clearly why the data don’t support it. It also shows what a skilled empiricist and teacher Adam is.

Very proud of my pal’s public work.

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

Wow, good thing he's running for mayor of New York City and not the mayor of America

AOC comparison may be problematic too because Mamdani awareness may be associated w/ conservatism (especially if right-wing media is pushing negativity in the run-up to the election). They also assert AOC was subject to early Fox attacks, but no relative comparison with Mamdani Fox attacks.

Racial Context(s) in American Political Behavior Racial Context(s) in American Political Behavior By Allison P. Anoll, Vanderbilt University, Lauren D. Davenport, Stanford University, and Rachel Lienesch, Vanderbilt University Since Key and Allport, scholars have argued that racial context affects political behavior, with some finding out-group contact increases intergroup hostility and others showing the opposite. We argue that Americans exist in multiple racial contexts simultaneously that may overlap or conflict, helping to explain past discord.

Racial Context(s) in American Political Behavior

Racial Context(s) in American Political Behavior By Allison P. Anoll, Vanderbilt University, Lauren D. Davenport, Stanford University, and Rachel Lienesch, Vanderbilt University Since Key and Allport, scholars have argued that racial context affects…

Look I am just saying that if we simply threw women, Black folks, immigrants, LGBTQ people, Muslims and other minorities under the bus we could go back to discussing the class-based white people politics that I, a white male pundit, am most comfortable discussing. Is that so hard?

Published today!

We evaluate #SystemJustification's role in upending Asian American solidarity w/PoC.

Produced w/ Kash Rogbeer, Sydney Tran, Tricia Huynh, Emily Ortiz (Psych, POLI PhD students) and talented UCLA undergrads from my #ExperimentsInREP course.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

One thing I like to do is to create a fun page in my research notebook after a project has been published. Definitely used my fave materials for this one 😅🪬

(The cat stickies are how I track my pipeline progress. They get their permanent home on this page!)

Logo of JREP with the hashtag OpenAccess, displayed on a grey background dotted with red circles.

#OpenAccess from the Journal of Race, Ethnicity, and Politics -

Many of Us Are Not Like the Others: Country of Origin and Latino Voting Behavior in the United States - https://cup.org/3WSTCxe

- Francesco Bromo, Lindsey P. González, @manuelamunoz.bsky.social & Kristy M. Pathakis

#FirstView #JREP10

To be clear: deportations to increase cultural homogeneity is the text book definition of ethnic cleansing. Demands that come even close to this are so far outside any democratic norm and the rule of law. What has happened to a country when this is not condemned in the strongest possible terms?

The New York Times Argues “Moving to the Center Is the Way to Win.” But the Data Shows the Strategy Is Tapped Out. Democrats already run moderates in nearly every swing district. It's not enough. A data-driven response to the case for centrism as a core electoral strategy.

@adambonica.bsky.social doing incredible work in this space:

open.substack.com/pub/data4dem...

Hell yeah

Spanish and American colonialism and Filipino American political commonality with Latinos Are Filipino Americans closer to Asian Americans or Latinos, politically? We argue that due to Spanish and American colonialism, this is an open question. We test hypotheses regarding Filipino Amer...

🔍︎Take a look at this recent article, “Spanish and American colonialism and Filipino American political commonality with Latinos,” published in @pgi-wpsa.bsky.social by Danielle Casarez Lemi and Gabriel R. Sanchez 👇 www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... #polisky

Better late than never! NCSU Dept of Political Science is hiring in political behavior at the assistant level. We are particularly interested in scholars who specialize in group or identity politics but are also open to other areas. I am on the committee and happy to answer any questions!