Connor O'Leary

Latest poll has Lab 28% Green 28% Reform 27% - surely Labour value at 7/1?

I'm noticing today all the MPs saying Starmer should reflect on his position are in the Socialist Campaign Group. When MPs who aren't in this group (who have been looking for an excuse to get rid of Starmer since 2020) then things will look more imminent. For now this doesn't seem to be happening

Am I missing something or why didn't all these people who are now saying Starmer should resign for appointing Mandelson say anything at the time he was appointed? On the contrary, many said it was a good appointment at the time and Starmer sacked him in September

Duncan-Jordan firmly on left of the party - had whip suspended in July 2025

Even if they're from John McDonnell and Nadia Whittome?

I would also be happy to lay 2026 at 1.37 honestly. Have any MPs come out against Starmer who weren't already angling to oust him anyway?

If you're on an average salary in Italy your tax will be around 35% of your salary cf around 18% in UK

Very generous - ousted as *PM* = Lab leadership contest triggered in early April.. I also think laying 2026 at 1.9 is value due to the process required to remove Starmer. Would be more interesting if Burnham was an MP; Streeting would have to risk his career in a highly public challenge from cabinet

Personally I am laying 2026 at odds-on. Very different to removing a Tory leader as 81 MPs need to back one candidate. Would require a highly organised and public challenge. Much more likely in 2027 imo.

'P.C.'?

Curious on how you believe having Keir Starmer around the EU Council table wouldn't currently be a significant boost to EU decision making and diplomatic weight? From someone who thinks Brexit has damaged both UK (to a greater extent) and EU

For as long as the UK doesn't have a full ban on parts being exported for Israeli military use, or impose proper sanctions, it will be guilty of not doing more to stop Netanyahu. However, the focus on UK exports (<0.1% of weapons Israel receives) and not Germany (30%) or Italy (5%) does feel lacking

Considering the UK indefinitely suspended trade talks with Israel this week + imposed further sanctions on West Bank settlers, and directly warned of further sanctions (with France/Canada), as well as plans for recognition of Palestinian state at the UN next month, I doubt it..

This is for the first leg..

Yep, one of those... I had a v strong position at odds of 4 and not much to regret..

Honestly I think Lab at 4 is value

Curious where you get the liquidity for the mayoral/locals?

Nice one. Unfortunately Betfair Exchange only put up a 🇨🇦 market when Liberals were down to 1.7 already, luckily I managed to back them at 1.87 when they drifted

Yes - need clear pro European policy agenda including rejoining EU customs union as minimum

I'm super happy to be featured in today's news from Trinity College Dublin!

Read the full article here: www.tcd.ie/news_events/...

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Check out the final version of this paper. Now out in #JACS_Au @pubs.acs.org

pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/...

Starmer accused of having head in the sand over cost of Brexit Exclusive: PM urged for a radical rethink of Brexit to boost economic growth as it’s revealed government won’t calculate loss of the UK’s biggest market

The UK needs to lead in Europe again. We can't rely on Trump, and Labour hasn't shown the urgency or ambition to fix our relationship with our closest neighbours.

A UK-EU customs union is the first step repairing that relationship.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-cost-starme…