@lugaricano.bsky.social
Economist. Professor @LSE SPP My webpage: https://sites.google.com/site/luisgaricano/ Substack (innovation, econ., Europe): SiliconContinent.com My book on the Euro is out on June 2025.
@lugaricano.bsky.social: You cannot win a trade war against the army that protects you. Our weakness is Russia. With a threatening Russia on our doorstep, and the Ukraine war ongoing, Europe cannot afford any break with the US www.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-turnbe...
04.08.2025 14:20 — 👍 4 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0”time to admit QE's later rounds were clear policy errors”
20.06.2025 06:04 — 👍 3 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0Today in SiliconContinent, Klaus Masuch and I explain carefully the redistribution of risks that are an inevitable consequence of modern monetary policy (QE etc.) and the huge transfers of wealth that have in fact taken place as a result. www.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-hidden...
18.06.2025 15:41 — 👍 2 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 1
This turns the single market on its head, it's exactly what people like
@lugaricano.bsky.social have been talking about, when they say that the modern EC is failing at its raison d'être, where the economy is concerned.
Enforcing a single market.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-myth-...
I have a new book! Digital Platform Regulation. Fun analysis of what society should do to get some competition out of of our favorite gatekeeper platform. Relevant to the DMA and US antitrust remedies. And free! Download here:
som.yale.edu/centers/thur...
As long term rates increase, the problems that created the doom loop in Europe are unsolved. Why? Italy's politicians like to have a captive buyer of debt. And German politicians like to control €2.5 trillion through local Sparkassen.
My post today:
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-return...
I explain today why the Single market is broken: mutual recognition is not what we think it is; harmonisation actually fragments, and the Commission is not doing its core job. If you only ever read one post of Silicon Continent, let it be this one.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/the-myth-o...
How to pay for European defense - a nice review of our @bruegel.bsky.social report with @steinbacharmin.bsky.social and @jzettelmeyer.bsky.social by @lugaricano.bsky.social www.siliconcontinent.com/p/how-to-pay...
09.04.2025 09:24 — 👍 14 🔁 4 💬 2 📌 0
Ukraine is the test case. "If the bloc fails to act decisively, it risks remaining caught between a dysfunctional confederation and the 'ever closer union' it hopes to become." @lugaricano.bsky.social @politico.eu www.politico.eu/article/hung...
22.03.2025 11:40 — 👍 5 🔁 4 💬 3 📌 0
This blog post by @pietergaricano.bsky.social while ostensibly about education makes crucial points about the limits of European policies, which are specially relevant as we think of industrial policy.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/policies-w...
Europe’s economy is in trouble. Our Professor of Public Policy @lugaricano.bsky.social recently featured on the @economist.com podcast “Money Talks” to discuss the challenges facing Europe’s leaders today. 🇪🇺🎧
www.economist.com/podcasts/202...
open.substack.com/pub/siliconc...
Excellent piece by @lugaricano.bsky.social
@lugaricano.bsky.social @hooverinstitution.bsky.social www.linkedin.com/posts/mattab...
08.03.2025 17:37 — 👍 0 🔁 1 💬 0 📌 0
Esplèndid text de @lugaricano.bsky.social sobre el concepte "externalitats sobre la seguretat nacional" i com aquest concepte pot ajudar a comprendre (i a actuar) els canvis sobre comerç internacional, proteccionisme i subvencions a la producció nacional
1/2
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/trading-wi...
"Trading with Buliles"
How to think like an economist in a world of hard power.
- The national security externality
- Strategic sectors
- When integration encances resilience.
Including fascinating new work on Geoeconomics (Maggiori, Becko, Kooi)
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/trading-wi...
Good point by Martin, which i missed at the time. Sorry.
03.03.2025 12:09 — 👍 2 🔁 0 💬 0 📌 0
The first step must be to reverse the unorthodox incursion of unanimity into Council decision making on enlargement.
Ukraine needs to join the European Union as fast as possible.
Neither Trump nor Putin can veto this!
ANDREW DUFF advocates for the fast-track accession and calls for a revision of its terms and conditions:
verfassungsblog.de/fast-trackin...
COVID ripped apart economies around the world. Amazingly most rich countries snapped back almost completely very quickly. By the end of 2021, 12 of 27 advanced OECD economies had unemployment rates below pre-COVID forecasts. The US did not. In fact, it was the fourth worst.
A 🧵
Our leader on #Merz and the debt brake. Get rid of it, and do it now.
www.economist.com/leaders/2025...
thanks Wojtek! done!
L
The "Geopolitical Commission"is lot of talk of industrial policy, strategic autonomy, no work on the basic (boring?) tasks.
Services are 70% of our economy, little has been done. Mr. Breton Single Market effort was lackadaisical at best. I hope better of S. Sejourné
8/8
QUANTITIES:
EU trades more with the rest of the world, less with itself.
1) Trade between EU countries is less than half the level between US states.
2) Since 1999, as % of GDP:
Eurozone trade has grown 31% → 55%
China trade: 34% → 37%
US trade: 23% → 25%
7/
QUANTITIES:
The result in quantities is stunning:
EU internal and external services trade are roughly equal as % of GDP - unthinkable in a properly functioning single market.
Internal barriers are pushing activity outward.
6/
Europe has effectively raised internal tariffs while lowering external ones - precisely the opposite of what a single market should do.
The results are devastating, as the next tweets show.
5/
The Commission's regulatory approach to digital services (70% of GDP!) has backfired. Example: GDPR compliance costs have cut small European tech firms' profits by up to 12%.
4/
PRICES:
IMF shows that EU internal barriers are equivalent to:
- A 45% tariff on manufacturing,
- A 110% on services.
As services become more important in the economy, barriers on service trade create an even bigger drag on growth.
2/
www.ft.com/content/13a8...
This Draghi piece is a quiet indictment on the
@EUCommission's failure on its core Treaty mandate: "establishing the internal market" & ensuring "free movement of goods, persons, services and capital."
His facts are devastating. A thread summarizing them and drawing some consequences.
1/
If you thought @jasonfurman.bsky.social 's FA piece was too subtle in its distinction between "tradeoff" as a well-defined economic concept and its common usage, you might get the point with this amazing post on the SuperBonus by @lugaricano.bsky.social.
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/how-to-inc...
I guess it isn't to everyone. But the fact of the matter is that not only Germany is rapidly losing export markets to China, but Europe at large.
China's exports are growing at a 10% y-o-y clip, world trade around 3%, eurozone exports are languishing (and yes that also hits CEE by extension). 4/x
Fantàstic @lugaricano.bsky.social sobre política fiscal i monetària europea i, en definitiva, sobre una Unió que és poc més, encara, que un club d'estats que van per lliure.
(l'estudi del cas italià és simplement esgarrifós)
www.siliconcontinent.com/p/how-to-inc...
