Ryan Dawkins

😂

Has there been any chatter anywhere on this site or elsewhere about how much the topline results in the 2024 ANES are off? It shows Harris winning by 11 points. That seems bad.

I want to state publicly that toddlers on leashes are hilarious!

OPM ‘merit’ hiring plan includes bipartisan reforms, politicized new test The federal government’s HR agency on Thursday instructed agencies to cease collecting data on the demographic makeup of their workforces.

“Federal job applicants will soon be quizzed on their favorite Trump administration policy as part of the hiring process, according to the Office of Personnel Management’s new ‘merit hiring plan.’”

www.govexec.com/workforce/20...

My 90 min flight from MSP to Chicago turned into me being stuck in the DC airport until tomorrow. Definitely not making the conference

My flight to Chicago was just canceled for unknown reasons. I’m not even sure if I’ll be able to make it to #MPSA25

He is pretty awesome. I feel lucky to call him mine.

Recent research from Enders and Thornton, which shows that educational polarization is a phenomenon among exclusively White Americans, supports this claim.

I listened to the podcast this morning. A big part of the discussion about young voters also hinged on the gender gap. Shor’s data showed that among young voters it was real and enormous. The gap for voters under thirty was 23 points, over thirty half that.

The wonders of partisan evaluations!

Absolutely, we developed a theory of asymmetrical party politics rooted in the symbolic-operational disconnect in public opinion, which forces the Democrats to build their coalitional politics around a programmatic policy agenda, while Republicans build their using appeals to ideological identity.

Our piece in PoP explains this pbenomenon, which we expand upon in the book Adam and I are writing. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Is this data publicly available? I have a couple of students interested in black political behavior.

I wish the Democrats would realize that Trump's approval rating is as high as it is because of a total lack of unified messaging on their part. The Party needs to engage in a full court press against this administration. People will only believe this is a constitutional crisis if they see RESISTANCE

Ah, yes. That would be the work around. Thanks!

How is this not an obvious violation of the first Amendment’s freedom of association? The federal government cannot dictate who you associate with peacefully.

This EO dictates what faculty at service academies can and cannot teach in the classroom. This executive order, titled, "Restoring America's Fighting Force" is both unabashedly unconstitutional, running afoul of the First Amendment, and violates accreditation rules. Where's AAUP and the ACLU?!

I’ve thought about this paper multiple times over the last six months.

I don’t have the emotional energy to do this for another four years.

Are you interested in U.S. legislative history? Newly-available complete dataset on all persons serving as legislators in the 50 state houses between 1900 and 2016: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

Yep! Send me your email via DM

Yep! Exactly right. We cite them in our paper.

I’d love your thoughts on it. We are turning this paper into a book. We’ve written four of six empirical chapters and hope to get under contract this year

Which would make sense because the party out of the White House always seems like it is operating in a power vacuum. Congressional leadership can sometimes fill that void if strong enough, as was the case under Pelosi or Gingrich, but they often can’t.

www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Yep! It was published online in 2020 in perspectives on politics. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

I would simply argue—as we do in our research—that rank-and-file partisans do not view congressional leaders as the head of their partisan groups. People view parties as presidency focused.

They do not. We have debated it with them. They view ideology as rooted in core values, while we argue that conservatism is rooted in identity. That is why we flip this core argument on its head in our Perspectives on Politics article.

Yep. We are writing a whole book on this. :)

It speaks to the asymmetry in the party coalitions. Democrats have a programmatic agenda built around equal rights protection and Democrats see Biden’s move as a cop out, while Republicans place a high premium on identity and in-group loyalty, so they fall in line around their party leader.