ValueStockGeek

Or just completely lower healthcare costs for everyone. Americans don't respond to 'let's help everyone.' They will respond to 'I will lower healthcare premiums so you can keep more of your paycheck.'

I'm glad it worked out! It was absurdly cheap in late 2022/early 2023.

Cutting rates when markets are near all-time highs and unemployment is near a 50-year low is insanity.

100% USA market cap weighted stocks

vs.

50% US stocks, 25% 10-year treasuries, 25% gold, rebalanced annually.

A major misconception in investing is that you have to sacrifice significant returns to reduce drawdowns.

Not really.

Over the long haul, anyway.

Why does Tesla never face any repurcussions for this stuff? Why don't Tesla failures become national news?

I get it when left-wingers wanted Tesla to succeed because they wanted to support EV's, but why is this stuff still happening and still underreported?

Even in the situations where a lot of it is change in valuation, it's not like that doesn't happen for a reason. A business that doubles its margins probably deserves double the price/sales.

You can break the returns down for any stock to EPS growth, shareholder yield, and change in valuation.

Usually, the stock pretty closely matches the EPS CAGR.

Analyze enough stocks like that and you'll quickly realize that the 'markets are broken' crowd is completely full of shit.

It's all marketing IMO.

"Markets are f*cked so you need my weird strategy and pay me fees."

or

"Yes I've underperformed but it's because markets are broken!"

It's also a lazy way to explain expensive prices. Every expensive stock isn't an irrational bubble.

Buffett: The Making of an American Capitalist This is a discussion between Matt Cochrane & I about Buffett: The Making of an

Matt Cochrane & I discuss the Lowenstein Buffett biography in my latest podcast. It was fun revisiting this book! www.securityanalysis.org/p/buffett-th...

Monetary malpractice is letting politicians bully monetary policy.

A major cause of the 1970's stagflation was LBJ and Nixon bullying the Fed into loosening monetary policy.

After seeing the way everyone bitched about a year of 9% inflation, I'd love to see how ya'll handle a decade of it.

10 years is a long time in your investing career, but it's a blip in the long-term. Market regimes can last 10 years or more. You can learn things via 'experience' from one of these periods that are fleeting in the long-run.

Moody's (MCO) Key Statistics

I wrote about Moody's this week.

It's behind a paywall, but if you want a free comp, just DM me on here and I'll add you for free.

www.securityanalysis.org/p/moodys-mco

JL Collins: Part 2 Podcast Episode · The Security Analysis Podcast · 05/21/2025 · 1h 2m

I talked to the godfather of financial independence - JL Collins - in my latest podcast!

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

UNH at 10x EV/EBIT and a 48% discount to its 5-year average price/sales. Very bad developments but that moat isn't going away.

The most common way that value is realized in a cheap stock is via mean reversion in *the business,* not simply the price.

Not special sits, catalysts, liquidations, buyouts, etc.

The business sucks and you're making a bet that the business will mean revert. That's it.

YouTube video by Value Stock Geek Buffettology

Check out my latest podcast with Matt Cochrane where we discuss Buffettology. It was the first 'Buffett book' I read circa 2000. Also available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, etc.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9HT...

I wrote about General Mills this week.

Solid company at a 12 P/E, with a 4.28% dividend yield and they bought back 3.76% of the stock last year.

Modest assumptions get to a 10% CAGR over the next decade, which I can't say for many other stocks. Cheerios aren't as sexy as AI, but here we are.

The greatest to ever do it.

98% of Americans used to work in farming. Do we need to bring those jobs back, too?

100 Baggers Podcast Episode · The Security Analysis Podcast · 04/16/2025 · 1h 1m

My latest podcast is a discussion with Matt Cochrane about the book, 100 baggers.

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/t...

Cait Flanders - Getting out of Debt, Minimalism, & Mindful Consumption Cait is a Canadian writer who first gained recognition with her blog, Blonde on a Budget, where she documented her journey of paying off $30,000 in debt.

My latest podcast was a great conversation with writer Cait Flanders about how she paid off $30k in debt and embraced a more minimalist, less consumerist lifestyle.

www.securityanalysis.org/p/cait-fland...

“…every boom looks like a bubble.
Every #bear market looks like it can get even worse.”

A case for doing nothing.

<<Back in the 1980s, [Trump] even took out a full-page ad in The New York Times railing against free trade. It’s one of the few positions he’s held onto consistently.>>

Trump, Tariffs, and the Case for Doing Nothing Since launching this Substack, we haven’t really seen a full-blown market meltdown.

My take on what an investor should do in the current environment.

www.securityanalysis.org/p/trump-tari...

He’s not going to have 400 billion if the stock tanks. He also borrowed heavily against it.

Particularly if there is inflation. All of his policies are inflationary.