Frank Calabrese

Full polling memo here: #ILSEN

New Tulchin Research poll (Raja internal) in the Illinois Democratic U.S. Senate primary, heading into the final week.

Raja Krishnamoorthi 39%
Juliana Stratton 28%
Robin Kelly 12%

Anthropic's super PAC is the first super PAC to go negative against Jesse Jackson Jr in #il02. One million dollar expenditure against Jackson.

FEC filings show the donors of "Progressive Values Illinois" are Donald R. Wilson Jr. and Thoma Bravo executives. Thomas Bravo is a private equity firm that has been heavily invested in crypto.

NEW: Super PAC “Progressive Values Illinois” just entered #ILSen. It is funded by billionaire Donald Wilson, a business partner of Trump Media.

$101K backing Raja Krishnamoorthi
$101K backing Robin Kelly
$101K opposing Juliana Stratton

NEW: Juliana Stratton’s campaign launches a sharp anti Raja Krishnamoorthi commercial, saying he took millions from Trump donors and crypto. And of course, attacking him for voting to thank ICE. #ILSen

Another big-money boost for Melissa Bean in #IL08: New Democrat Majority just filed a $935,000 TV buy in her support. Brad Schneider chairs the pro-business New Democrat Coalition. Bean has received now around $5 million in super PAC spending.

Great joining The Cleopatra Show on WVON 1690 today to discuss the Democratic primary.

NEW: Illinois Future PAC, the JB Pritzker-funded super PAC backing Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton in the #ILSen Democratic primary, is putting another $4M into ads attacking Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi.

Total spend now north of $10M.

@frankcalabrese.bsky.social Maybe next time @commissionersteele.bsky.social can include the legal required disclaimer on her campaign mail. 🤦‍♂️

Daniel Biss facing negative ad blitz from outside group with reported ties to AIPAC Biss’ top rival, state Sen. Laura Fine, is the favorite of pro-Israel Democrats in the district

Thank you @marcrod.bsky.social for including my take in @jewishinsider.com on how AIPAC outside spending in #IL09 could backfire, pushing progressives away from Daniel Biss and toward Kat Abughazaleh. jewishinsider.com/2026/02/dani...

Thank you @shiakapos.bsky.social for featuring my research in POLITICO’s Illinois Playbook on the staggering level of Super PAC spending in the Illinois Democratic primary.

Here is my spreadsheet of the Super PAC data:
docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

Iran war complicates Democratic primaries as Election Day approaches The military engagement could energize the party’s activist base in a number of primaries, with races in North Carolina and Illinois serving as early tests

Honored to be interviewed by Jewish Insider @jewishinsider.com about how the Iran war is affecting Democratic primaries in Illinois.

jewishinsider.com/2026/03/iran...

Her microphone with the IL09 map is sending me lol

New PPP Illinois Dem Senate primary poll shows Stratton ahead. Poll sponsored by the Democratic Lieutenant Governors Association, which supports Stratton:

Juliana Stratton 33%
Raja Krishnamoorthi 30%
Robin Kelly 11%.

Super PAC spend in #IL09 (as of 3/1/26):

AIPAC ("ECW"): $2.8M pro Laura Fine
AIPAC ("ECW"): $1.3M anti Dan Biss
314 Action: $410K pro Dan Biss
Progressive Caucus: $389K pro Dan Biss
AIPAC ("CPP"): $166K anti Kat Abughazaleh
Medicare for All: $50K pro Dan Biss

$5.2M total

Liz Nicholson too?

I looked up her birthday. She was 16 years old on Super Tuesday in 2016. This ia crazy. AIPAC should apologize.

AIPAC is running a new digital attack ad in IL09 claiming Kat Abughazaleh is “to the right of Donald Trump," based on comments she made when she was 16 or 17 years old.

The "Chicago Progressive Partnership" 30s attack ad on @katmabu.bsky.social, which is limited to YouTube and has instructions to only air to 18-34yos, is out.

In @thedailynu.bsky.social soon.

MiQ Digital USA Inc. has only been used in FEC filings by AIPAC per Daily Northwestern's data editor Ryan Ottignon. Same with Tom King.

Compare the vendors for "Chicago Progressive Partnership" and "Affordable Chicago Now." Both PACs are paying the same firms: MiQ Digital and Tom King Communications.

A new Super PAC, "Chicago Progressive Partnership," just jumped into #IL09, opposing Kat Abughazaleh. Filings show they’re using the same vendors as AIPAC.

Samantha Steele (politician) - Wikipedia

Hey Cook County, let's all vote for Liz Nicholson for 2nd Dist Board of Review. Her opponent, incumbent Samantha Steele, was the chick who drove drunk, crashed into a parked car, argued with the cops, tried to use her office to get off, then attempted to flee scene. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samanth...

Can you post them? I am curious

IL02 Dem primary super PAC spend (Per FEC as of Feb 27):

AIPAC pro Miller: $2.33M
Think Big (AI) pro Jackson: $1.12M
Fairshake (crypto) anti Peters: $735K
Progressive Promise pro Peters: $210K
National Nurses pro Peters: $100K
People Action pro Peters: $30k

Total $4.52M

AIPAC spending is flooding #IL02: Affordable Chicago Now, widely reported as a dark money front for AIPAC is now at $2,325,841 boosting Donna Miller. Latest ad touts her Planned Parenthood leadership. Donors not yet disclosed.

Fairshake, the crypto PAC, entered the Illinois Senate Democratic Primary with airing commercials against Juliana Stratton. The ad says “Madigan’s team recruited Juliana Stratton,” framing her as a machine pick.

Tulchin surveyed 600 likely Dem primary voters statewide from Feb 14 to Feb 19. Sample was 58 percent women, 52 percent college grads, 59 percent white, 16 percent Black. Ideology split: 29 percent progressive, 27 percent liberal, 34 percent moderate.