These Islands

1/ John Swinney has not only misled parliament. His government has also broken repeated budget commitments, made firstly by him as acting Cabinet Secretary for Finance, and subsequently (twice) by Shona Robison.

1/ Update. The data cited below strongly suggested that John Swinney misled parliament yesterday, but it wasn’t quite definitive. Because all taxpayers in Scotland benefit from the 19% starter rate, the tipping point at which taxpayers paid more in 2023-24 was about £2k above…

1/ Shona Robison tells the Finance & Public Administration Committee she hasn’t yet raised a particular issue with the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, at which point a civil servant pushes over a laptop to remind Robison that she has in fact reached an agreement on the issue.

1/ Shona Robison gave evidence yesterday to the Finance & Public Administration Committee, and did not know what the government’s target for reducing civil service headcount is. The convener of the committee had to tell the Cabinet Secretary what her own target is. 🤯

Does the Scottish Government have any information which substantiates the First Minister's claim that energy bills would be cheaper in an independent Scotland?

Of course not. None that it’s prepared to share, anyway. Apparently it’s “material in the course of completion”.

GERS 2025: Full Fiscal Autonomy? Kevin Hague uses the latest GERS figures to compare Scotland’s fiscal position with independent EU countries and argues that a fiscally autonomous Scotland would need to dramatically reduce investment...

Using the latest GERS figures, @kevverage.bsky.social compares Scotland’s fiscal position with independent EU countries and argues that a fiscally autonomous Scotland would need to dramatically reduce investment in public services.

1/ John Swinney used yesterday’s Ofgem price cap news to once again claim that independence is the solution to high energy bills in Scotland.

Coincidentally, Dorenell Windfarm Ltd published its accounts yesterday, and those accounts expose the vacuity of Swinney’s rhetoric.🧵

John Swinney is not telling the truth.

Wholesale costs are actually down vs the prior period, but bills are up because of “network and policy costs” - costs disproportionately *caused* by Scotland.

Independence would *increase* Scottish household’s exposure to these costs.

Developer CWP Energy said the project could now proceed to financial close following last month's decision by the current UK government to drop plans for "zonal electricity pricing". Had that policy gone ahead, it would have disincentivised the development of wind farms and other renewable energy projects across Scotland.

This is why Scot Gov opposed zonal pricing. It would have jeopardised many renewables projects.

But zonal pricing would have been a very mild form of independence for the electricity market in Scotland. Actual independence would kill the Scottish renewables pipeline stone dead.

John Swinney’s rhetoric vs reality. The wholesale cost of electricity in the current Ofgem price cap is £85/MWh.

Every renewable technology in which Scotland excels costs more than that. Some, like floating offshore wind (ScotWind is mostly floating) and tidal, cost *way* more.

this is wrong in so many ways - buckle in for a quick thread

1/n

Defence Spending in GERS: Anatomy of a Myth The Scottish Government’s Finance Secretary’s latest attempt to spin the GERS figures is both incorrect and misleading.

Defence spending in GERS. @kevverage.bsky.social explains how the Scottish Government is pushing a dishonest narrative.

OK so this Scottish Government statement [quoting finance secretary Shona Robison] is completely nuts - c75% of defence spending is on personnel and she’s completely ignoring spending in Scotland relating to the c.14,000 (7.3% of UK total) regular forces and MOD civilian personnel based here!

Have only skim read what looked like the most relevant pages, and this would appear to be it for the frank reflections on the fiscal consequences of independence. Facile stuff. (Neither Andrew Wilson nor the Growth Commission are mentioned in the index, which is frankly absurd.)

“At the heart” of the SNP’s new campaign for independence will be an argument that is straightforwardly false.

Scottish renewables are absolutely not “low-cost”. On average, they are high-cost, and depend on being able to defray those high costs across all GB bill payers.

John Swinney’s decision to set an extremely high bar for another independence referendum is completely consistent with what he said back in 2014. Here is Swinney being quite adamant that there wasn’t going to be another referendum if Scotland voted no.

Shona Robison refused an invitation to explain her push for full fiscal autonomy before the House of Commons Scottish Affairs Committee. Given her flailing performances giving evidence to Holyrood committees, probably a wise decision. Albeit a pathetic one.

Zonal Pricing: What Happened? Zonal pricing of electricity is not going to happen. At least not any time soon. The UK Government’s decision, part of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) process, which it inherited ...

Remember those claims about zonal pricing giving Scottish households the cheapest electricity in Europe? Well… they were not true. Read this to understand why:

Zonal Pricing: What Happened? Zonal pricing of electricity is not going to happen. At least not any time soon. The UK Government’s decision, part of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) process, which it inherited ...

Everything you always wanted to know about zonal pricing. Plus why the SNP is incoherent and unserious on electricity market reforms.

Zonal Pricing: What Happened? Zonal pricing of electricity is not going to happen. At least not any time soon. The UK Government’s decision, part of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) process, which it inherited ...

Three years of intense lobbying from supporters and opponents of zonal pricing is over. Which camp did the SNP belong to? And why? Did some of the lobbying exaggerate the truth? And does the SNP have a coherent vision for electricity market reform?

Zonal Pricing: What Happened? Zonal pricing of electricity is not going to happen. At least not any time soon. The UK Government’s decision, part of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) process, which it inherited ...

I have seen quite a bit of b*!!*cks talked on @bsky.app about the issue of electricity pricing. This article from @staylorish.bsky.social is really useful in understanding what zonal pricing is really about www.these-islands.co.uk/publications... (1/2)

Zonal Pricing: What Happened? Zonal pricing of electricity is not going to happen. At least not any time soon. The UK Government’s decision, part of the Review of Electricity Market Arrangements (REMA) process, which it inherited ...

Three years of intense lobbying from supporters and opponents of zonal pricing is over. Which camp did the SNP belong to? And why? Did some of the lobbying exaggerate the truth? And does the SNP have a coherent vision for electricity market reform?

Scotland’s trade deficit was -12.7% of GDP in 2024 (the UK’s was -1.1% of GDP). Do SNP politicians who blithely talk about independence and a new currency even know this, let alone understand the consequences?

The £5 billion fiscal hole giving Rachel Reeves headaches after the benefits u-turn is just 0.18% of GDP. Scottish independence (or full fiscal autonomy) would create a fiscal hole for Scot Gov of about 10% of GDP - a problem 57 times larger than the one Reeves is wrestling with.

Laughable new position on Westminster austerity. The Scottish Government is now officially unsure about whether or not it has ended.

Shirley-Anne Somerville believes that if Scotland was independent, Scot Gov wouldn’t need to spend money to eliminate the 2-child cap.

The 2-child cap is a policy which stops money being spent. If you want to do away with it, you have to spend money. Whether independent or not.

Ivan McKee says civil service workforce will shrink by 4-5% per year until 2030 and Perm Secretary “talked about the specifics on that” on Tuesday. But the Perm Secretary told the Finance committee there were no specifics. Does this government actually know what it’s doing?

“This is from a campaign that can’t even tell you what currency Scotland would be using post independence, let alone how we would spend that currency on healthcare.”

Andrew Bowie makes a fair point in response to a typically facile argument for independence from Lesley Riddoch.

Michael Marra asks the Permanent Secretary, Joe Griffin, about the appropriateness of civil servants working on the fantastical demands Scottish Government ministers frequently make of the UK Government. Griffin appears to have barely considered the question before. (Part 1/2)

No Scottish Government officials are working on Full Fiscal Autonomy. I wonder if that’s because it is so obviously a good idea? Or so obviously a calamitous idea? (Richard McCallum is the Scottish Government’s Public Spending Director)