These Islands

Wind and solar are important sources of power and the latter in particular may yet prove transformational. But they are not a vehicle for Scottish or even British enrichment for the very simple and persuasive reason that renewable energy may be sourced from anywhere. Oil is valuable because it is rare; sun and wind are useful precisely because they are not. That helps explains why the claims made by Alex Salmond and Boris Johnson that Scotland and Britain could be "the Saudi Arabia of renewables" were just hot air. Renewable energy is a low return on capital sector and also, still, an expensive one.

Bracingly accurate stuff, understood by hardly anyone in Scottish politics. (And by absolutely nobody in the SNP or Scottish Greens).

We see here that Scotland is in the process of losing out once again when it comes to energy resources that, if anything, vastly outstrip anything the oil sector could have ever promised because, unlike oil, the sun and the wind will continue to deliver that energy long after the last barrel of oil is extracted from the ground.

Typically wrongheaded analysis from Common Weal. It is because renewable resources are unlimited, and everyone has them, that they are *less* valuable to Scotland’s economy than oil and gas were.

The McCrone Mythology A 1974 memo written by Scottish Office economist Gavin McCrone has acquired a mythical status for Scottish nationalists. But how much of the mythology is true?

The debunking:

Brilliant news. I was worried that @scotnational.bsky.social might abandon its annual McCrone Day/Week jamboree after the mythology was well and truly debunked. But I shouldn’t have doubted them. Facts be damned, they will plough on regardless.

Challenged with real-world evidence of the true cost of Scottish renewables, Gillian Martin responds by witlessly reciting the “low-cost renewables” mantra. There is no evidence to support this claim, because it simply isn’t true.

Rare moment of genuine drama at FMQs as Anas Sarwar produces evidence which undermines John Swinney’s evasions on the QEUH scandal.

1/🚨The Scottish Government *paid* for the credit ratings obtained last year from Moody’s and S&P.

But we are not allowed to know how much it paid, because “disclosure may affect the commercial interests of Moody's and S&P”.

The expected contract value for banks selected to assist Scotland "in accessing the sterling public bond market" is £5 million ($6.9 million), according to a tender published by the Scottish government on Wednesday. The equivalent figure for a legal advisor is £1.8 million, according to a separate notice.

🚨 This is scandalous. £7 million of public money to pay bankers and lawyers for a bond sale which is simply a nationalist publicity stunt. The Scottish Government could borrow at a lower interest rate from the UK Government, and avoid these fees altogether. www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

This. And it would do the pro-Indy lobby good if they were to make the effort to understand these issues properly and to stop misleading the public on the issue. ("Ewwww, Taylor, he's a yoooooon" is not a good reason for not trying to understand renewables.)

This is the sort of thing that can happen when any party spends too long in power: the boundary between party and government (never 100% sharp, I suspect) becomes far too blurred.

The politics of net zero will be pivotal to Scotland's economic performance over the next five years. If the government is to play a helpful role, politicians (from all parties) must learn how to think about return on capital - perhaps the most important but least understood concept in the politics of energy in Scotland. We are moving from high return on capital businesses - oil and gas - to low return on capital businesses - renewables. The energy transition, and Scotland's opportunities on that journey, cannot be properly understood without grasping the significance of this point. Glib assertions about Scotland having won the energy lottery twice over - first with oil and now with renewables - are not just false. They are actively harmful. Renewables are a good thing, but they are not a lottery-style windfall. The sooner politicians appreciate this, the better our chances of achieving the fabled just transition.

Glib assertions about Scotland having won the energy lottery twice over - first with oil and now with renewables - are not just false. They are actively harmful.

1/ Short 🧵 on how the civil service in Scotland has been corrupted by Scottish nationalism. Last August, Scot Gov published a news release alongside the GERS figures which was so misleading, the Director of @fraserofallander.org called it “egregious” and “out of order”.

Plans for huge wind farm paused over 'unfair' grid charges - BBC News A developer warns that a development will not be built unless "unfair" transmission charges are overhauled.

The SNP will activate the usual grievances here, but they need to explain this: someone has to pay for the additional grid necessary to make wind farms in Scotland viable. If the SNP want generators to pay less, who do they want to pay more?

The civil servants in the Constitutional Futures Division spent three years working on independence papers, and never made any attempt to estimate the impact of independence on energy bills in Scotland. The reason is obvious: they knew the answer would be inconvenient.

Infinite and Everywhere The journey to net zero means leaving behind the fossil fuel era, and moving towards a world which will power itself by capturing energy from super-abundant resources. This has profoundly important co...

2/ For about the millionth time: renewables are a low return on capital business. The energy transition, and Scotland’s opportunity on that journey, cannot be understood without fully grasping the significance of this point.

1/ RWE was the big winner in the AR7 auction, but what did it win? The right to build assets yielding an (unlevered) return on capital of 8.2%. By funding 80% of the projects with debt costing 6.5%, RWE should be able to squeeze out an equity IRR of 12.5%.

This thread is full of useful details, not least that Dan, a member of Scot Gov’s own Tax Advisory Group, has joined the chorus of significant voices who judge the notorious taxpayers claim to have been false in recent years.

Good piece on yesterday’s AR7 auction.

In the context of yesterday’s AR7 auction result, in which both Scottish projects cleared at prices above the current wholesale price of electricity, this is blatantly untruthful. But nothing will be done about these repeated misleading statements in parliament.

Listen to Gillian Martin’s response when asked to explain how the SNP’s “third off electricity bills with independence” claim is consistent with the actual costs of Scottish offshore wind.

“That’s a dissertation question. I’ll need to get back to you on that.”

Sam Taylor clearly explaining how the SNP is misleading Scottish voters on income tax. Important, necessary work in the age of populists👇

The Tipping Point Last week, the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute made a significant intervention on a notorious claim about income tax in Scotland. Has the SNP’s statistical chicanery finally run out of ro...

Ahead of the budget tomorrow, the full story of the SNP’s statistical chicanery on income tax.

The Tipping Point Last week, the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute made a significant intervention on a notorious claim about income tax in Scotland. Has the SNP’s statistical chicanery finally run out of ro...

Last week, the Director of the Fraser of Allander Institute made a significant intervention on a notorious claim about income tax in Scotland. Has the SNP’s statistical chicanery finally run out of road?

1/ To understand why John Swinney is so reluctant to admit the notorious taxpayers claim has been false for the last two years, you have to go back to its inception. Watch how delirious the SNP benches were about a boast worth just £20 a year to those who benefited.

Having submitted numerous FOIs asking Scot Gov for information which substantiates claims made in a political context, I have never before received such an emphatic “nothing to do with us” response. But the energy bills claim is unusually dishonest, even by SNP standards.

John Swinney clings to the dodgy taxpayers claim at FMQs by citing forecasts for 2025-26. He ignores the inconvenient fact that the forecasts have a track record of being wrong - the claim turned out to be false in the last two financial years.

Yesterday in parliament @michaeljmarra.bsky.social quoted Mairi Spowage of @fraserofallander.org on the notorious taxpayers claim. No intervention from the SNP benches disputing the point. They are knowingly misleading parliament and the public when repeating the claim.

Longer clip here. Perhaps now this story will get the attention it deserves? John Swinney and Shona Robison have repeatedly misled parliament on this issue, and have refused to correct the Official Report. A familiar story, of course.

Jamie Hepburn today repeated the false claim that more than half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in the UK. Douglas Ross used a Point of Order to highlight what @fraserofallander.org has said about this, but Hepburn declined to make a correction.

This is significant. Mairi Spowage of @fraserofallander.org has spoken to BBC More Or Less about Scot Gov’s “more than half of taxpayers in Scotland pay less income tax than if they lived elsewhere in UK” claim. Mairi is quite clear: the claim has been false for the last two financial years.