Ronan Mainprize

Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation, says academic Sergey Radchenko

I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Europe’s defence tech start-ups attract investment surge Russia’s war in Ukraine and fears over US security relationship drive wave of VC funding

“Companies in the sector have raised €2.4bn since the start of 2022 including €1.4bn in the first seven months of this year alone, up from just €30mn in 2020 and €150mn in 2021”

on.ft.com/3VJiU0d

Josephine Baker's secret war The singer-turned-spy Josephine Baker played a key, and hitherto unacknowledged, role during the Second World War in the secret contest between Britain and France in the Middle East.

Josephine Baker’s secret war | @matthefler.bsky.social

engelsbergideas.com/portraits/jo...

The man who brought Sweden in from the cold During the first two decades of the Cold War, a former university librarian, Thede Palm, led Sweden’s military intelligence. His disregard for his country's official policy of non-alignment helped mak...

The man who brought Sweden in from the cold | Rikard Westerberg

engelsbergideas.com/portraits/th...

Trump Is Breaking American Intelligence “Speak plainly!” Russian President Vladimir Putin snapped at his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, at a televised security council meeting on the eve of his shambolic full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Naryshkin was visibly nervous. Once he had finally stammered out his support for recognizing the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states—the words Putin was waiting for—he was abruptly told to sit down, like an unprepared pupil flubbing an oral exam.

Must read from General Hayden and David Gioe www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Expert: Underrättelser om Iran har blivit politik De motstridiga uppgifterna om bombningen av Iran tyder enligt spioneriexperten Matthew Hefler på att underrättelse i USA håller på att bli politik.

Glad speaking with @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social on US intelligence on Iran and how to consider the public disputes around assessments 🇺🇸

Though hard to guauge from outside, recent events remind us to beware politicization of intelligence or secret services 🌍

English 👇

www.svd.se/a/kwoBJX/exp...

The Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? OPINION — On June 13, 2025, just after midnight, Israel launched a military operation against Iran, citing an urgent need to halt Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons capability. Prime Minister Benja...

🚨📚 New Publication - The #Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? 🇮🇱🇮🇷 in @thecipherbrief.bsky.social

www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence...

Experten om ett ”svenskt CIA”: Verkar vilja gå i den riktningen ”Kan bli betydande förändringar” • Ny svensk underrättelsemyndighet föreslås

Thanks to Sweden’s national TV network @svtnyheter.bsky.social for getting my reaction to 🇸🇪's recent intelligence review by Carl Bildt 🌍

I said that a new foreign intelligence agency will take time and must reflect Sweden's security needs and "intelligence culture" 🛠️ 🇸🇪

www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...

Deterrence requires discipline | Patrick Porter | The Critic Magazine To deter, or to destroy? To try to dissuade adversaries from attacking one’s people or interests, or to take the gloves off and try to eliminate them? It’s a question central to Israel’s history…

Me in @TheCriticMag: David Ben-Gurion believed Israel in its hostile region could never have finality on its terms. It would always have to deter, requiring discipline. Netanyahu's war of temptation on Iran rejects that vision. Decisiveness may elude him.
thecritic.co.uk/deterrence-r...

Stuck in Copenhagen airport all day, but luckily I have some great reading material with me 📚

Intelligence, Strategy, and the Israeli-Iranian War - War on the Rocks States use intelligence to inform their strategic decisions — and to influence their friends. Israel has a long history of passing secret intelligence to

What happens when allies don’t see eye to eye on intelligence? warontherocks.com/20...

U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb

American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...

Israel’s secret war inside Iran Hacked phones, deep-cover agents and miniaturised weapons systems: the covert campaign that preceded Jewish state’s attack

Israel’s secret war inside Iran https://on.ft.com/44or9UI

Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans For Iran But Has Withheld Final Order The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel’s strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.

Exclusive: President Trump told senior aides he approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program.

US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war - The Boston Globe Trump should pivot to coercive mediation: making any additional military or intelligence support conditional on Israeli restraint.

NEW: In @globeopinion.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and I argue that the US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/18/o...

Scoop: Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing amid Iran tensions Gabbard had a principal-level White House commitment, one source familiar with her plans said.

SCOOP: Tulsi Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing

Signals, Sabotage, and Strategic Collapse: Intelligence and Ambiguity in the Iran-Israel Conflict The Israeli-Iran war remains in an extremely dangerous phase. Deterrence has collapsed. Although the Israelis have said they expect a two-week campaign, there is no obvious end in sight. Now, Iran’…

My latest BCISS blog post on the Iran Israel war.

Was Iran really close to building a bomb? I doubt it, but who knows?!

The pretext and cause for war are far less certain than its consequences.

intelligencestudiesreview.blog/2025/06/18/s...

On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).

On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).

I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64.

Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?

China’s Spy Agencies Are Investing Heavily in A.I., Researchers Say

Will China's spy agencies adopt A.I. tools faster than the west? New report by Recorded Future on Chinese intelligence agencies investments in A.I. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/17/u...

7. Yukiko och Patrik möter Matthew Hefler Stolpe Stories · Episode

Podcast alert! 🚨 📻 I had the pleasure of chatting about my collection Intelligence and Contemporary Conflict on "Yukiko and Patrik meet"👇

This book brings together experts on issues of intelligence and security and was produced by the Ax:son Johnson Institute 🌍

open.spotify.com/episode/6VsQ...

How LBJ forged the US-Israel alliance The special relationship between the United States and Israel was cemented by the support offered by Lyndon B. Johnson throughout the sixties.

With a lot of discussion about the US-Israel alliance in the news, I’m resharing an article I wrote last year for @engelsbergideas.bsky.social on how LBJ and the Cold War 1960s helped establish what became a special relationship 🇺🇸🇮🇱

Spending Review 2025 (HTML)

A small boost for intelligence services in the spending review. "At this SR, the government will deliver an increase of £0.6 billion to the Single Intelligence Account...by 2028‑29, reflecting the rising demand on the [IC] to illuminate & deter threats." www.gov.uk/government/p...

Modern Tech and Old-School Spycraft Are Redefining War Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia’s bomber fleet and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah show how technological advances and good tradecraft can potentially alter the course of wars.

Ukraine’s drone strike against Russia and Israel’s operations against Hezbollah show how technological advances and good tradecraft can potentially alter the course of wars

Populists vs. Spies in Israel and Beyond - War on the Rocks Over a year and a half after the Oct. 7 attacks, the Israeli government is embroiled in an unprecedented institutional clash with the nation’s internal

Why would a country sabotage its own security agencies in wartime? Israel's leadership crisis reveals a troubling global pattern. warontherocks.com/20...

In conversation with Fiona Hill on Donald Trump’s nuclear nightmares Fiona Hill, distinguished adviser to several US presidents on foreign affairs, spoke to EI’s Jack Dickens about Donald Trump’s fear of nuclear Armageddon, how this fear has shaped Trump’s worldview, a...

Donald Trump’s nuclear nightmares | In conversation with Fiona Hill

engelsbergideas.com/essays/in-co...

Quantity Has a Quality All of Its Own Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian intelligence operations have shifted toward a mass-scale approach, focusing on sabotage, intelligence collection, and influence efforts.

New report from our member Elena Grossfeld (@kloosha.bsky.social)

'Quantity Has a Quality All of Its Own' — how Russian intelligence shifted to mass, low-cost tactics post-Ukraine invasion. Sabotage, spying & disruption at scale. What does it mean for NATO?

www.cna.org/reports/2025...

Gabbard considering ways to revamp Trump's intelligence briefing One idea is to make the briefing, which according to his schedule Trump has been taking less often than his predecessors, a video that looks like Fox News.

“Because he has been taking the PDB a little less than once a week on average, Trump currently receives a product that one of the people familiar with the PDB discussions described as the “best of” highlights from the past week, in addition to anything new that day.”
www.nbcnews.com/politics/nat...

New research from me - published in the @officialbaas.bsky.social Journal of American Studies - on William Raborn's tenure as Director of Central Intelligence. 🇺🇲

Including the Dominican Intervention, Vietnam, and some tragicomic anecdotes.

Available Open Access 🔓: shorturl.at/PG4Eb