Ronan Mainprize

The Ax:son Johnson Institute for Statecraft and Diplomacy’s #Intelligence and #Security Digital Seminar Series is in full swing! 💥

Our stellar lineup continues 10 March with Professor Richard J. Aldrich 🇬🇧 🇸🇪

For detals on our forthcoming speakers and to register:
www.hhs.se/en/research/...

#internationalisation | Institute of Military History (IMH), Swedish Defence University (FHS) Dear Friends, Please find below the IMH International Seminar Series for the Spring Term 2026. Zoom links to follow in due course, but for now please put these dates in your diary. We look forward to ...

Dear Friends,
Please find in the link below the IMH International Seminar Series programme for the Spring Term 2026. Zoom links to follow, but for now please put these dates in your diary. We look forward to seeing you in person or online.

www.linkedin.com/posts/instit...

🗃️ #MilHist #Skystorians

Hydrogen warfare Unlocking new hydrogen fuel technologies could unleash a transformation in warfare as profound as any witnessed over the past five centuries, with far-reaching strategic implications for NATO and the ...

Unlocking new hydrogen fuel technologies could unleash a transformation in warfare as profound as any witnessed over the past five centuries, with far-reaching strategic implications for NATO and the war in Ukraine.

Hydrogen warfare | Mara Balasa

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/hyd...

Operation Absolute Resolve was a resounding success for American intelligence. But the real test of resolve is just beginning…

Some thoughts on how US intelligence can help stabilize post-Maduro Venezuela:

📄 Call for papers

🙌🏼 King's Centre for the Study of Intelligence (KCSI) is delighted to partner with the Society for Intelligence History (SIH) to host the SIH Annual Conference at King's College London on October 11-13, 2026.

@kingscollegelondon.bsky.social @socintelhist.bsky.social

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📚 My review of Mark Lowenthal's excellent study of the US intelligence community, Vigilance Is Not Enough, is available in the @iajournal.bsky.social journal.

A comprehensive study of the the development of US intelligence - well worth a read.

🔗 academic.oup.com/ia/article-a...

The art of agent-running Agent-running is all about people. The safety of agents – who often treat their case officers as confessional, priest-like figures – is paramount.

Agent-running is all about people. The safety of agents – who often treat their case officers as confessional, priest-like figures – is paramount.

The art of agent-running | @mpolymer1.bsky.social

engelsbergideas.com/notebook/the...

𝗖𝗙𝗣: Join the 𝗦𝗼𝗰𝗶𝗲𝘁𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗛𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆’s 2026 conference, hosted at King’s College London with the 𝗞𝗶𝗻𝗴’𝘀 𝗖𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝘆 𝗼𝗳 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 kcsi.uk and the 𝗗𝗲𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗪𝗮𝗿 𝗦𝘁𝘂𝗱𝗶𝗲𝘀 @warstudieskcl.bsky.social

𝗗𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 15, send to: SIH2026Conf@gmail.com
www.intelligencehistory.org

A ten-part thread on misreading Trump:

A number of thoughtful observers argued Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. From the outset I argued that he would on the podcast and in private conversation.

“Arrestingly well-researched and rich in biographical detail, this remarkable book reveals that America’s top spies believed in social science and hoped universities could rescue the early CIA from intelligence failure.” —Richard Aldrich, author of GCHQ: The Uncensored Story.

Russia’s provocations are menacing Nato. The cold war shows how it needs to respond | Sergey Radchenko Despite the cost of shooting down fighter jets and drones, small skirmishes remind both sides of the dangers of escalation, says academic Sergey Radchenko

I have a new piece with The Guardian where I look into the history of aerial confrontations going back to the Cold War. I argue that intruding Russian aircraft must be shot down as a prophylactic measure. There will not be a nuclear war. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Europe’s defence tech start-ups attract investment surge Russia’s war in Ukraine and fears over US security relationship drive wave of VC funding

“Companies in the sector have raised €2.4bn since the start of 2022 including €1.4bn in the first seven months of this year alone, up from just €30mn in 2020 and €150mn in 2021”

on.ft.com/3VJiU0d

Josephine Baker's secret war The singer-turned-spy Josephine Baker played a key, and hitherto unacknowledged, role during the Second World War in the secret contest between Britain and France in the Middle East.

Josephine Baker’s secret war | @matthefler.bsky.social

engelsbergideas.com/portraits/jo...

The man who brought Sweden in from the cold During the first two decades of the Cold War, a former university librarian, Thede Palm, led Sweden’s military intelligence. His disregard for his country's official policy of non-alignment helped mak...

The man who brought Sweden in from the cold | Rikard Westerberg

engelsbergideas.com/portraits/th...

Trump Is Breaking American Intelligence “Speak plainly!” Russian President Vladimir Putin snapped at his foreign intelligence chief, Sergei Naryshkin, at a televised security council meeting on the eve of his shambolic full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Naryshkin was visibly nervous. Once he had finally stammered out his support for recognizing the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states—the words Putin was waiting for—he was abruptly told to sit down, like an unprepared pupil flubbing an oral exam.

Must read from General Hayden and David Gioe www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...

Expert: Underrättelser om Iran har blivit politik De motstridiga uppgifterna om bombningen av Iran tyder enligt spioneriexperten Matthew Hefler på att underrättelse i USA håller på att bli politik.

Glad speaking with @svenskadagbladet1.bsky.social on US intelligence on Iran and how to consider the public disputes around assessments 🇺🇸

Though hard to guauge from outside, recent events remind us to beware politicization of intelligence or secret services 🌍

English 👇

www.svd.se/a/kwoBJX/exp...

The Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? OPINION — On June 13, 2025, just after midnight, Israel launched a military operation against Iran, citing an urgent need to halt Tehran’s march toward nuclear weapons capability. Prime Minister Benja...

🚨📚 New Publication - The #Intelligence Behind the Strike: Was Everyone Wrong About Iran’s Nuclear Program? 🇮🇱🇮🇷 in @thecipherbrief.bsky.social

www.thecipherbrief.com/intelligence...

Experten om ett ”svenskt CIA”: Verkar vilja gå i den riktningen ”Kan bli betydande förändringar” • Ny svensk underrättelsemyndighet föreslås

Thanks to Sweden’s national TV network @svtnyheter.bsky.social for getting my reaction to 🇸🇪's recent intelligence review by Carl Bildt 🌍

I said that a new foreign intelligence agency will take time and must reflect Sweden's security needs and "intelligence culture" 🛠️ 🇸🇪

www.svt.se/nyheter/inri...

Deterrence requires discipline | Patrick Porter | The Critic Magazine To deter, or to destroy? To try to dissuade adversaries from attacking one’s people or interests, or to take the gloves off and try to eliminate them? It’s a question central to Israel’s history…

Me in @TheCriticMag: David Ben-Gurion believed Israel in its hostile region could never have finality on its terms. It would always have to deter, requiring discipline. Netanyahu's war of temptation on Iran rejects that vision. Decisiveness may elude him.
thecritic.co.uk/deterrence-r...

Stuck in Copenhagen airport all day, but luckily I have some great reading material with me 📚

Intelligence, Strategy, and the Israeli-Iranian War - War on the Rocks States use intelligence to inform their strategic decisions — and to influence their friends. Israel has a long history of passing secret intelligence to

What happens when allies don’t see eye to eye on intelligence? warontherocks.com/20...

U.S. Spy Agencies Assess Iran Remains Undecided on Building a Bomb

American intel agencies have assessed that, despite Israel's attack, Iran has not decided to move to a nuclear weapon. That could change, officials said, if the US attacks Fordo or Israel kills the Supreme leader. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/19/u...

Israel’s secret war inside Iran Hacked phones, deep-cover agents and miniaturised weapons systems: the covert campaign that preceded Jewish state’s attack

Israel’s secret war inside Iran https://on.ft.com/44or9UI

Trump Privately Approved Attack Plans For Iran But Has Withheld Final Order The president is hoping that threatening to join Israel’s strikes will lead Tehran to abandon its nuclear program.

Exclusive: President Trump told senior aides he approved attack plans for Iran, but is holding off on giving the final order to see if Tehran will abandon its nuclear program.

US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war - The Boston Globe Trump should pivot to coercive mediation: making any additional military or intelligence support conditional on Israeli restraint.

NEW: In @globeopinion.bsky.social, @nicolegrajewski.bsky.social and I argue that the US should not become a pawn in the Israel-Iran war www.bostonglobe.com/2025/06/18/o...

Scoop: Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing amid Iran tensions Gabbard had a principal-level White House commitment, one source familiar with her plans said.

SCOOP: Tulsi Gabbard cancels Senate Intel briefing

Signals, Sabotage, and Strategic Collapse: Intelligence and Ambiguity in the Iran-Israel Conflict The Israeli-Iran war remains in an extremely dangerous phase. Deterrence has collapsed. Although the Israelis have said they expect a two-week campaign, there is no obvious end in sight. Now, Iran’…

My latest BCISS blog post on the Iran Israel war.

Was Iran really close to building a bomb? I doubt it, but who knows?!

The pretext and cause for war are far less certain than its consequences.

intelligencestudiesreview.blog/2025/06/18/s...

On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).

On ‘64, I’d also add Burr and Richelson’s article in International Security (www.jstor.org/stable/2626706) and a @sarabcastro.bsky.social chapter about assumptions and intelligence on China’s nuclear programme (bokforlagetstolpe.com/en/books/int...).

I’ve been thinking a lot about Frank Gavin’s ‘Nuclear Statecraft’, in particular ch. 4 on US policy towards China’s nuclear test in ‘64.

Provocative for thinking about the risks of nuclear armed rogue states and proliferation in 2025. An analogy to ‘64 perhaps shows a rush to war is unnecessary?