Oil tanker struck last night east of Fujairah in UAE
Strait of Hormuz remains open, despite #Iran threats, but trade has dropped 80%
#IranWar #Israel
@jamesmiller.bsky.social
The Casual Analyst: https://www.thecasualanalyst.com/ Expert on pro-democracy movements & the fight against autocrats in Ukraine, Russia, Syria & beyond. Liveblogging & OSINT pioneer, Twitter OG turned refugee (Millermena). Trying to save my own Republic
Oil tanker struck last night east of Fujairah in UAE
Strait of Hormuz remains open, despite #Iran threats, but trade has dropped 80%
#IranWar #Israel
Guys, the Italian unemployment rate has just fallen below the UK's.
04.03.2026 09:22 β π 256 π 64 π¬ 15 π 24Reading articles about how the military is out of ammo then reading a headline like this really is wild
04.03.2026 03:39 β π 14 π 6 π¬ 0 π 0Reading articles about how the military is out of ammo then reading a headline like this really is wild
04.03.2026 03:39 β π 14 π 6 π¬ 0 π 0
For years on my old blog I published the names of servicemembers who died in Iraq & Afghanistan. No other outlets were.
These are the first 4 Americans to die in the Iran War.
Capt. Cody A. Khork, 35
Sgt. 1st Class Noah L. Tietjens, 42
Sgt. 1st Class Nicole M. Amor, 39
Sgt. Declan J. Coady, 20
I missed this gem yesterday
03.03.2026 23:57 β π 6 π 1 π¬ 0 π 0ππππ
03.03.2026 16:49 β π 2249 π 741 π¬ 75 π 29I'm sure all of Iran's neighbors were consulted and are thrilled. How could this possibly go poorly?
03.03.2026 23:03 β π 9 π 5 π¬ 1 π 1Spain does not have an obligation under NATO to allow the U.S. to use bases there for offensive operations against Iran. That may be frustrating for U.S. war planners, but is not an action that justifies U.S. economic retaliation against Spain as a βnational security threatβ.
03.03.2026 19:17 β π 169 π 55 π¬ 10 π 4
U.S. Navy during the Tanker War: ~550 ships
U.S. Navy now: ~289 ships
Portrait of a brain absolutely stewed in disinformation
03.03.2026 18:21 β π 63 π 24 π¬ 3 π 0
β‘ Zelensky floats swapping Patriot missiles for interceptor drones amid increased Iranian Shahed threat.
"If they give them to us, we will give them interceptors. It is an equal exchange," he said.
Yikes.
Side note, huge amounts of refugees moving from Lebanon into Syria. Lots to think about that. Syrians returning to Syria is good. Refugees swamping a fragile fledgling state in the middle of a regional crisis? Probably not great (they're Syrians, they'll figure it out, but still)
what could go wrong!
Trump proves it. These foreign policy experts are all so overpaid. ChatGPT (free tier, we're not chumps) can handle all this planning for us!
Every poll is just, 'do you approve of Trump." And 35-40% of people somehow do.
03.03.2026 15:46 β π 36 π 5 π¬ 6 π 0But as you are aware, the Pahlavi loyalists have an outsized amount of influence and have the ear of many in DC. They think they will just wake up one day and everything will be great. Magic!
03.03.2026 15:43 β π 1 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0comic by political cartoonist Gary Varvel depicting a man hearing about Greece sending ships to defend Cyprus from the Persians while turning his calendar and discovering the year is 499 BCE.
03.03.2026 14:46 β π 567 π 175 π¬ 3 π 7Is it really possible that Israel just wiped out the entire Assembly of Experts? Hard to believe that they would schedule such an important meeting in their usual location, but Israel has apparently completely compromised the entire regime
03.03.2026 15:03 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The video of those strikes on Tel Aviv was indeed AI.
03.03.2026 14:38 β π 7 π 0 π¬ 0 π 1Current events confirm the achieved wisdom of time-honored classics in the social sciences.
03.03.2026 12:35 β π 941 π 187 π¬ 17 π 8This is what I have been saying forever. The only reason Republicans pretend to care about βthe Jewish peopleβ is that they need Israel for the Rapture to happen and then all the Jews will burn in Hell. Criticizing Israelβs government isnβt antisemitic but THAT sure is.
03.03.2026 12:14 β π 752 π 207 π¬ 28 π 10
The entire Middle East is running out of interceptors and is already taking serious infrastructure damage. In the coming days and weeks Iran's strike success rate will go from the single digits to the high 90s.
Meanwhile the Trump admin can't figure out how Iran can still launch this many attacks
I saw that Iran has a stockpile of 80,000 drones and pre-strike was capable of producing 400 per day. UAE, Bahrain run out of interceptors in 4-7 days. Saudi and Israel in 2-3 weeks. Iran may be able to wreak unimaginable devastation after that.
03.03.2026 13:24 β π 9 π 5 π¬ 1 π 1
The likely assassination of a prominent feminist activist. Militias attacking US positions. Baghdad in battle. This is Iraq, not Iran.
Plus, anti-government riots in Bahrain.
At least two US embassies aflame, another attempted attack in Pakistan.
The blowback to this war is already happening.
So, uh... how's the war going this morning?
03.03.2026 13:20 β π 4 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0
π€¦
Trump could have put actual and real pressure on Putin a year ago, and a lot of the interceptors would never have been needed. Want more interceptors? Tell Zelenskyy publicly he will get a Tomahawk without targeting restrictions each time Moscow hits anything remotely civilian.
Day 1469 is upon us. Ukraine still has to fight for its survival.
This is another daily thread. As war in the middle-east gathers momentum, so does Russia's optimism that Trump will become ever more desperate to force Ukraine into a bad deal.
Here's the round-up:
Oops. I'm sure it'll be fine. Iran won't launch an asymmetrical war on US spol.
Hey, anyone know where I can get cheap life insurance policies for me and my family? Apropos of nothing, obv...
Last night I debated a pro-Shah monarchist and it sounded EXACTLY like this - the people will rise and install Pahlavi, he will be the good king who will bring democracy, the regime will melt away & the people of Iran will be the boots on the ground. He got angry when I said that might not happen
03.03.2026 12:40 β π 3 π 0 π¬ 1 π 0