Michael Stephens

Uncovering the secret food trade that corrupts Iran’s neighbours Oil and terrorism are not the country’s only exports

Fascinating and richly reported story on the mechanics and consequences of Iranian fruit & veg smuggling. “Iran now supplies nine out of ten cauliflowers, tomatoes and watermelons imported by the UAE, a near-monopoly built in just a few years.” www.economist.com/interactive/...

Nagasaki 1945 A dip into the family photo album

In 1945 my father was with the British fleet in the Pacific. He visited Nagasaki not long after it was destroyed.

I wrote a brief post about the visual record he left behind.

I think you've read the undertone of my sentiment pretty well. And you're absolutely right to also refer to Sudan, and the lack of international action there to solve what is, a horrible bloody conflict far exceeding Gaza in scale.

I do think however G7 states recognising Palestine is a big deal.

Which to date, they have utterly failed to do. Trump was right when he sent Egypt's half formed proposal back with a "do better" caveat. No Israeli PM even if they're left wing, will ever accept Hamas having political influence in Palestine ever again. So this is of utmost urgency to solve.

And I suspect Israel's domestic politics becomes the most important variable for any movement forward on a viable political solution in the long term. This does not ignore the fact that Hamas is still operating, and the Arab world needs to come up with a mechanism for full transfer of power.

countries follow France in support of a Palestinian State. If we're left with a point where a flailing Netanyahu is basically reliant on supportive statements from Trump, Orban and Milei but is essentially unwelcome everywhere else, then it's a slow slide towards deep extended isolation.

Hi Andrew, yes sadly there's so much to talk about it's difficult to cover all the ways forward, as well as where we're currently at. I honestly think that this 1) Depends a lot on Trump and whether he believes in a solution 2) Israel's domestic politics and Bibi's level of support 3) Whether other

A Moment of Change? France recognises the State of Palestine Podcast Episode · Behind The Lines with Arthur Snell · 27/07/2025 · 50m

In which myself and @snellarthur.bsky.social discuss the catastrophic aid situation in Gaza, and France's recognition of a Palestinian State. It's long long discussion, but there's a lot to say. It's frank and will cut at times, but we've tried to be fair.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/a...

Trump’s Iran Choice: Last-Chance Diplomacy or a Bunker-Busting Bomb

“exercises led to the conclusion that … any attack on Fordo would have to come in waves, with B-2s releasing one bomb after another down the same hole. And the operation would have to be executed by an American pilot and crew” www.nytimes.com/2025/06/16/u...

Looks like IDF decapitation of leadership prevented Iranian missile launch. Notable that Iran, despite strategic warning, hadn’t delegated launch authority. Or launchers were suppressed. www.axios.com/2025/06/13/i...

Israel strikes Iran – how will Iran retaliate? Israel struck military and nuclear targets in Iran overnight in a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has begun further strikes on Friday. Iran has vowed retaliation though President Tr...

A short podcast I did for the Spectator about today’s events

www.spectator.co.uk/podcast/isra...

Khamenei will need to think about his choices. Negotiate now from a place of weakness and concede, or allow this to escalate further and take more damage, which could severely undermine the regime and trigger wider instability internally. Neither option is good.

Iran and the US have been stuck on zero enrichment, and perhaps Iran thought it had more cards to play to stretch talks out to the 13th hour, as it usually does. What the Iranians didn't realise is that it was already the 13th hour, and time had run out. It was a costly error.

It appears that Netanyahu has the freedom to escalate at will at this point. The only way off the ladder would seem to me to be Trump, who can say to Iran, "look what happens if you don't talk to me, this is the cost. Come back to the table now, or this gets way worse."

I don't even know who David Bull is...

UK confirms aim to buy F-35A for NATO nuclear strike role The UK Government has now confirmed the aim to buy F-35A jets as part of "a shift to a new mix of F35Bs and F35As” to support NATO’s nuclear sharing mission.

Healey: “SDR recommends commencing discussions with the US & NATO on enhancing the UK’s participation in NATO’s nuclear mission. We have accepted that …, as we have the other 61 recommendations…I will not comment in public on those discussions” ukdefencejournal.org.uk/uk-confirms-...

Absolutely!

The delights of think tanking being turned into "Hot Tankery". The past 15 years has a lot to answer for.

Four big decisions for the 2025 Spending Review | Institute for Fiscal Studies Spending Review 2025 will set detailed departmental budgets for most of this parliament. We examine the key choices facing the government.

Striking chart. "In a scenario where defence is increased to 3% of GDP, and DHSC gets 3.4% (around the long-run average), all other departments would face cuts of around 1.8% per year"
ifs.org.uk/articles/fou...

UK and Israel Relations, Where Do We Go From Here? Political support for the war in Gaza is at a nadir among Israel’s allies in the international community, with the UK looking for leverage to end the conflict.

My latest piece co-authored with Dr Azriel Bermant on the future of UK-Israel relations.

www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Starvation in Gaza, is the world finally responding? Podcast Episode · Behind The Lines with Arthur Snell · 24/05/2025 · 54m

I spoke to @mikerstephens.bsky.social about the terrible humanitarian crisis in #Gaza and the world’s shifting response.

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/b...

If you are a supporter of Israel living in the West, this is extremely serious, and needs to be understood. It's not about Hamas and what they have done. It is about what Israel is currently doing to prosecute this war, and the highly problematic methods it is choosing to do so.

Jeremy Bowen: Goodwill running out as UK, France and Canada demand Israel end Gaza offensive France, the UK and Canada are among nations that have sharpened their criticism of Israel's ground offensive.

I don't always agree with Jeremy Bowen on this conflict. But he is absolutely right. Patience has run out, and the last supplies of political goodwill for Israel are fast slipping away. Outside of a small group of right wing politicians and advocates support has gone.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Tory MP on party polling fourth: “Forget renewal. More like resuscitation.”

Progress for Syria? - War on the Rocks

Trump says he’ll drop the Syria sanctions, so what happens now? Me on The Warcast:

warontherocks.com/episode/warc...

@warontherocks.bsky.social

Military briefing: How Turkey became vital to European security Trump’s reset of US alliances and Russian threats cement Nato power’s role as ‘country condemned to strategic significance’

“NATO member Turkey’s military is on a roll — just as Europe seems willing to overlook the latest democratic backsliding by its strongman president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan because it needs a well-armed ally to protect its south-eastern flank from Russian revanchism.”

This is not ok...this isn't about the horrors of October 7, or going easy on Hamas (who continue to behave appallingly).

Israel's current Gaza policy is morally wrong, and is strategically highly questionable in its efficacy. It should be roundly condemned by all sensible and decent people.

Not gonna lie, it certainly gave me a kick lol...

Great to be at the National Liberal Club’s Defence and Security Circle Anzac Day breakfast, we heard a fascinating talk about online extremism while having a shot of rum!

COLUMN: How do you say "drill, baby, drill" in Mandarin?

Call it “zuan ba, bao bei, zuan ba."

China may not have a drilling slogan, but it just lifted oil production to an all-time high, surpassing a peak set 10 years ago.

My @opinion.bloomberg.com column: www.bloomberg.com/opinion/arti...