Tristan Guerra

Why do rustbelts vote radical right? Studying the German Ruhr area, @nilsblossey.bsky.social, @lstoetze.bsky.social and I show: it’s not just about deindustrialization, but also about the original industrialization. Where coal is buried deeper and mining started later, the AfD is stronger today 1/12

🆕💼 Today marks a new chapter: I'm starting as a Researcher at @moreincommonuk.bsky.social in Spain!

After 4 years working on my PhD, it was time for the next step. Grateful to my supervisors and colleagues, I learned so much and will miss working alongside them.

🚨 New paper in @thejop.bsky.social

Why do politicians often misperceive what citizens' policy positions are?

@simonotjes.bsky.social and I study ~10,000 estimates of public opinion by politicians in Denmark & the Netherlands to uncover the sources of these (mis)perceptions

Thread 🧵1/10

🚨 New working paper alert 🚨
Missing summer — and the Tour de France? Don’t worry, we got you covered. 🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️🚴‍♂️
In this paper, we show that being on the route of Tour de France reduces far-right voting. osf.io/preprints/so...

La radicalisation du mécontentement à l'égard d'Emmanuel Macron s'est encore accentuée depuis la dissolution de 2024, et atteint désormais des niveaux records

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

📝Why has a Bukele-style far-right party emerged in Spain—even though VOX already exists?

In our new paper, @javierpadilla.bsky.social, @canalejoalvaro.bsky.social and I explain the unexpected rise of SALF ("Let the Party Be Over") in the 2024 EP elections:

journals.sagepub.com/doi/epub/10....

1/3

New article out in World Politcs. We analyze how different groups react to varying programs of social democratic parties. We find less trade-offs than often assumed. Generally, more left-progressive programs increase support among social democratic potentials
muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/articl...

🚨 New publication 🚨 : Happy to share that my paper, "Losing Touch: The Rhetorical Cost of Governing" is now forthcoming at @cpsjournal.bsky.social. Short 🧵 about the paper here 👇 1/10

Given the local election results in the UK, a short #thread - based on much of our own research - on the vicious cycle of radical right support that we have seen in many countries.
1) When radical right parties (such as Reform) are electorally successful established parties move right on immigration

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

What do Americans associate with 'wokeness'? Find out now in our new open access article that @respol.bsky.social released just in time to ring in my 30th birthday! (with @benji9253.bsky.social, Kal Munis, and Spencer Goidel) journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/... 🧵

Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future - Political Behavior Expectations of what the future holds are a significant driver of political behavior. It is therefore important to understand the sources of those expectations. In this paper, we explore the psycholog...

My article with @robjohns75.bsky.social, "Hope, Optimism, and Expectations for the Political Future", is now out open access at @polbehavior.bsky.social.

It's about the psychology of expecting good things to happen in politics.

link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Is there a ‘Youthquake’? The Structure of Party Competition and Age Differences in Voting - Ruth Dassonneville, Ian McAllister, 2025 Why do age differences matter for voting in some countries and not in others? Despite the prevailing narrative that a ‘youthquake’ in voting is occurring across...

New paper out at @cpsjournal.bsky.social! With Ian McAllister, we examine how party competition and party positions condition the presence and size of an age gap in voting for the left. A short 🧵 below!

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Et peut-être qu'il est même avantageux de se faire discrètement oublier, laissant ainsi le pouvoir assumer seul la responsabilité de la situation devant les électeurs ...

The most striking result from yesterday’s German election #btw2025 🇩🇪:

🔹 35 years after reunification: The GDR is redrawn on this map.
🔹 The AfD won 45 out of 48 electoral districts in the East.
🔹 In some parts of Saxony, they came close to 50%!

Why is this happening? Here’s my take 👇

Very interesting to look at the age distribution in the exit poll. The SPD which already did very poorly with young voters last time continues to loose further there - a party of pensioners. Interestingly, also huge losses for the Greens among young voters and massive gains for the Linke.

Wow! DIe Linke does much better than expected, while both CDU and AfD fall below symbolically important 30% and 20%, respectively.

FDP might still make it, BSW less likely.

Grand Coalition is possible but narrow margins...

#BTW25 #GermanElection

🚨 New article out at EJPR with the dream team @fredericofs.bsky.social Loes Aaldering @kgattermann.bsky.social Diego Garzia

TLDR: dark personality traits (esp. Machiav.) in in-party candidates are associated with higher #AffectivePolarization

Article: tinyurl.com/4wnuhcad
Open data: osf.io/2c7w4/

Graph that shows the sum of tweets and their impressions by members of the German Bundestag (Parliament), clustered by party. The blue AfD is a clear outlier with around 400 tweets and just under 40 million impressions.

In case you were wondering how things are going in Germany & on X, after Elon Musk announced his support for the far-right "Alternative für Deutschland" (AfD) in the upcoming Federal election:
The chart below shows sums of tweets x impressions by members of parliament over the past 7 days...🧵⤵️

Traumatic injury mortality in the Gaza Strip from Oct 7, 2023, to June 30, 2024: a capture–recapture analysis Our findings show an exceptionally high mortality rate in the Gaza Strip during the period studied. These results underscore the urgent need for interventions to prevent further loss of life and illuminate important patterns in the conduct of the war.

Les massacres à Gaza doivent cesser. Les otages doivent être libérés. MAINTENANT. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous⬇️ #CeaseFireNOW #BringThemHomeNOW. Texte intégral de l'étude ci-dessous 🔽 #FIN www.thelancet.com/journals/lan...

Zuckerberg exposes a big problem with our ideas about authoritarian populism as backlash. Backlash as counterfactual means “if we had not had progressive thing X, we would not see that much support for this ideology“. It should have become clear that authoritarianism is nothing reactive 1/

This article brilliantly captures the deadlock and absurdity of presidentialism within the French political system www.lemonde.fr/en/politics/...

Over the past 80 years, academic writing has become substantially harder to read 📉🧪 www.economist.com/science-and-... I analysed 350k PhD thesis abstracts and found that they've become more complex in every discipline, especially the humanities and social sciences

https://shorturl.at/zQ8bJ

New paper published @ajpseditor.bsky.social

Showing that reduced access to public services fuelled far right support in 🇮🇹

Existing work on far right highlights globalization & migration grievances, what about people’s experiences with the state?

We use 🇮🇹 reform to find out

shorturl.at/zQ8bJ

YouTube video by BLAST, Le souffle de l'info COMMENT GAGNER LA BATAILLE POLITIQUE SUR L'ÉCOLOGIE ?

[Entretien 🎞️] L’écologie semble être sortie des préoccupations. Elle serait même l'objet d'un backlash. Mais n'est-ce pas pas un peu plus compliqué ? @theodoretallent.bsky.social, doctorant au CEE, était invité de Paloma Moritz sur @blast-info.fr pour en parler.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wc87...

6 hours under martial law in Seoul On the ground from the protests outside the National Assembly building

6 hours under martial law: a drunk scene report from Seoul www.theverge.com/24312920/mar...

The French Parliament has just brought down Michel Barnier’s government via a vote of no confidence – a first since 1962. A 🧵 on what is happening, what to expect next - and how the far right is capitalizing on the crisis.

La France, un pays inquiet et mécontent frappé par la crise politique La douzième vague de l’enquête annuelle « Fractures françaises », réalisée par Ipsos pour « Le Monde », la Fondation Jean Jaurès, le Cevipof et l’Institut Montaigne dresse le portrait d’une France déc...

🇫🇷📊 La dernière vague de l'enquête Fractures Françaises réalisée auprès d'un échantillon représentatif de 3000 personnes par Ipsos pour @lemonde.fr, le CEVIPOF, l'institut Montagne et la Fondation Jean Jaurès est sortie 👇🏼 www.lemonde.fr/politique/ar...

Some papers are a long time in the making. This one, written with the excellent @iguinaudeau.bsky.social, took long and I am incredibly grad to see it published. 1/8 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...