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Florian Scheuer

@florianscheuer.bsky.social

UBS Professor of Economics, University of Zurich. Department Chair @uzh-econ.bsky.social www.econ.uzh.ch/scheuer

1,448 Followers  |  24 Following  |  56 Posts  |  Joined: 04.10.2023
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Posts by Florian Scheuer (@florianscheuer.bsky.social)

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Monetary Policy at Times of Geopolitical Fragmentation with Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel Guest lecture by Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board, European Central Bank

πŸ“£ Don't miss this upcoming guest lecture and Q&A with Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB). πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί
The event will be moderated by @florianscheuer.bsky.social Scheuer.

www.econalumni.ch/events/monet...

06.03.2026 18:22 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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@florianscheuer.bsky.social has been featured in a @sfchronicle.com investigation into California's proposed "billionaire tax" β€” a ballot initiative that would impose a one-time 5% wealth levy on the state's roughly 200 billionaires

www.sfchronicle.com/california/a...

#EconomicsForSociety

06.03.2026 09:01 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
2026 European Summer Meeting (ESEM), Dublin, Ireland - The Econometric Society We are pleased to announce the 2026 European Meeting of the Econometric Society (ESEM) that will...

Final call for papers for ESEM 2026!
@florianscheuer.bsky.social and I are the Scientific Program Chairs for Econometric Society European Summer Meetings (ESEM), which will take place in Dublin, August 17–21, 2026. Hope to see you in Dublin!
More info: www.econometricsociety.org/regional-act...

21.02.2026 12:20 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Could the California β€˜billionaire tax’ really devastate Silicon Valley? We look at the case Technologists say the tax could cause much more damage than gouging a few plutocrats. In the second of our three-part series on the proposal, we look at the merits of that claim.

The state of California πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ 🐻 has been considering introducing a new wealth tax. What can this US state learn from Switzerland πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­? πŸ‘‰ A few answers from @florianscheuer.bsky.social
in @sfchronicle.com

www.sfchronicle.com/california/a...

24.02.2026 10:27 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Florian Scheuer

Florian Scheuer

Earlier this week, we had the pleasure of hosting @florianscheuer.bsky.social from @econ.uzh.ch in our seminar series.

He presented β€œDilution vs. Risk Taking: Capital Gains Taxes and Entrepreneurship.”

27.02.2026 08:57 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Do you know a leader in public finance?Β 

Nominations are officially OPEN for the 2026 Daniel M. Holland Medal! Help NTA recognize lifetime achievement in our field.
πŸ”Ή Open to all sectorsΒ 
πŸ”Ή Deadline is March 31

Nominate here: https://www.cognitoforms.com/NTA1/_2026DanielMHollandMedalNominationForm

11.02.2026 16:31 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Macroeconomic Policy | Gerzensee

Papers on all aspects of macroeconomic policy (monetary, fiscal, growth, financial) will be considered.

Submit here by March 31: szgerzensee.ch/programs/con...

There will be a special issue of the JME in the fall of 2027, more details here: szgerzensee.ch/news/article...

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11.02.2026 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm happy to serve on the Scientific Committee of next fall's Swiss National Bank/Gerzensee/JME Conference on Macroeconomic Policy, together with Marios Angeletos, Harris Dellas and Silvana Tenreyro.

Taking place on October 30-31, 2026, it will be held in honor of Robert Barro.

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11.02.2026 14:29 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Dirk Krueger, @s-stantcheva.bsky.social, Aleh Tsyvinski and I again organize the Macro Public Finance session at @nber.org Summer Institute, taking place on July 23, 2026.

Submit here by March 26: conference.nber.org/confsubmit/b...

11.02.2026 14:00 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
2026 European Summer Meeting (ESEM), Dublin, Ireland - The Econometric Society We are pleased to announce the 2026 European Meeting of the Econometric Society (ESEM) that will...

@hcbjornland.bsky.social and I are the Scientific Program Chairs for the @econometric.bsky.social European Summer meetings, on August 17-21, 2026 in Dublin.

Keynotes by Nava Ashraf, Raj Chetty, Nobu Kiyotaki and Rohini Pande.

Submit here by February 23:

www.econometricsociety.org/regional-act...

11.02.2026 13:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Nach dem Nein zur Erbschaftssteuer-Initiative: Wie gross ist der Schaden fΓΌr die "Steueroase Schweiz"? Die Schweiz hat eine Erbschaftssteuer fΓΌr Superreiche deutlich verworfen. Was das fΓΌr ihr Image und ihre fiskalische Zukunft bedeutet.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡­Mit einem Nein-Anteil von 78 Prozent sprach sich die BevΓΆlkerung gegen die Erbschaftssteuer Initiative. "Eine moderate Erbschaftssteuer – ohne Zweckbindung an den Klimaschutz – hΓ€tte hier durchaus einen Beitrag leisten kΓΆnnen." so @florianscheuer.bsky.social mehr πŸ‘‡

www.swissinfo.ch/ger/schweize...

01.12.2025 16:45 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Taxing inheritance: What can we learn from the Swiss experience? – Marius BrΓΌlhart
YouTube video by Economics. For Society. Taxing inheritance: What can we learn from the Swiss experience? – Marius BrΓΌlhart

Probably more than you ever wanted to know about #inheritance and its #taxation in #Switzerland, but here you go.πŸ€“
Thanks to @florianscheuer.bsky.social and @ubscenter.uzh.ch for hosting me, and to all the viewers for their questions and real-time voting!
www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAZ7...

27.11.2025 16:19 β€” πŸ‘ 9    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

More and more wealth is passed down across generations. Yet, many countries have reduced inheritance taxes. What drove this trend? What are the consequences of reversing it?

Don't miss my conversation later today with @mariusbrulhart.bsky.social who knows more about this than anyone else!

26.11.2025 09:00 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Dilution vs. Risk Taking: Capital Gains Taxes and Entrepreneurship Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

We’ve worked on this paper for a long time, so I’m thrilled to finally share it! Here’s the link:

nber.org/papers/w34512

Ungated version: econ.uzh.ch/dam/jcr:27d6...

10/10

25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

However, in the absence of tax credits in case of losses (as would be the case with a wealth tax), there is no such insurance. We're only left with the dilution effect, which is unambiguously bad for founders.

9/10

25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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This provides downside insurance: the share of founders who receive any positive exit payoff increases from 16% to 47%. This insurance is actuarially unfair but still potentially attractive for risk-averse founders.

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25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

The second effect depends on the treatment of capital losses. Most startups see their valuations rise but ultimately fail, so losses are common even when interim gains occur. Taxing unrealized gains makes founders cash out early in return for tax credits in case of losses.

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25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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What happens if you tax unrealized gains?

First, it dilutes the successful founders. On average, founder ownership at exit falls by 25%. At the top, payoffs fall by a factor of three.

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25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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While entrepreneurship is very attractive to risk-neutral founders (equivalent to an annual salary of about $460k), risk-averse founders value it at a steep discount.

5/10

25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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We collect new data on the payoff distribution of founders of VC-backed startups in the US.

It’s extremely skewed: 84% end up with zero exit value, the top 2% get 80% of the total value, and the distribution has a very thick Pareto tail.

4/10

25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This year’s Nobel laureate Philippe Aghion recently warned against a wealth tax in France: ”Mistral AI [a leading French AI startup] will have to find financiers to pay its taxes instead of being able to fund innovation.”

But we lack both theory and evidence on these effects!

3/10

25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

This question took center stage in the debate over the β€œZucman tax” in France and during the last US presidential election (Kamala Harris’s proposal to tax unrealized gains, which was met with strong opposition from the VC community).

2/10

25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

What would taxing unrealized capital gains β€” or wealth β€” do to entrepreneurship? If illiquid founders must sell shares to pay such taxes, how does this extra dilution affect incentives?

🧡 on my new paper with Eduardo Azevedo, Kent Smetters & Min Yang

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25.11.2025 10:14 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Join us with @mariusbrulhart.bsky.social and @florianscheuer.bsky.social to learn more about taxing inheritance, highlighting what data and policy experience can tell us about the role of inheritance in modern economies like Switzerland.

www.ubscenter.uzh.ch/en/news_even...

#EconomicsForSociety

17.11.2025 16:31 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1
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Trump provoziert einen Braindrain aus den USA: Wie kann die Schweiz profitieren? Der amerikanische Braindrain kΓΆnnte zur Chance fΓΌr Europa werden, auch fΓΌr die Hochschulen hierzulande. Trotzdem bleiben die meisten von ihnen seltsam still.

Brain drain made in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ und wieπŸ‡¨πŸ‡­davon profitieren kΓΆnnte.
Β«An den besten Hochschulen der Ivy League Leute zu rekrutieren, war bisher schwierigΒ», sagt @florianscheuer.bsky.social.
Das habe sich geΓ€ndert:Β«Das Interesse, zu uns zu kommen, ist viel grΓΆsser geworden.Β» πŸ‘‡

www.nzz.ch/nzz-am-sonnt...

27.10.2025 11:39 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
American Economic Association: JOE Listings - August 1, 2025 - January 31, 2026

I'm hiring a Post-Doc @econ.uzh.ch to work with me and my team at the frontier of tax policy and inequality research! Funded by my Consolidator Grant, no teaching, flexible start date and duration. Apply here:

www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....

@erc.europa.eu @snsf.ch

23.10.2025 07:11 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Danke Matthias!

11.10.2025 08:19 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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We are thrilled to welcome Esther Duflo and Abhijit Banerjee as the new Lemann Foundation Professors to our department, beginning in the summer of 2026.

10.10.2025 09:46 β€” πŸ‘ 141    πŸ” 24    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 19
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Ein Coup fΓΌr die Uni ZΓΌrich: Zwei NobelpreistrΓ€ger bauen ein eigenes Zentrum auf Abhijit Banerjee und Esther Duflo sorgen mit Experimenten dafΓΌr, dass EntwicklungsΓΆkonomie auch in der Praxis funktioniert. Dank einer Spende der Lemann Foundation bauen sie in ZΓΌrich ein Zentrum fΓΌr ...

A "coup" we are very excited and proud about! πŸ™‚

10.10.2025 14:04 β€” πŸ‘ 54    πŸ” 9    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 2

We will continue to work hard on attracting outstanding economists from around the world to Zurich, including from the U.S., and on raising the resources needed to support themβ€”especially during the current, special times in the international higher education landscape.

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10.10.2025 09:01 β€” πŸ‘ 175    πŸ” 14    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 3