@andrewkosenko.bsky.social
Will eventually grow up. Perpetually confused. Behavioral and information economics, experiments, and learning/memory. Lately, also πΊπ¦ topics Kharkivite/New Yorker andrewkosenko.com
Europe must overcome its fear of exercising power if it is to withstand the clear, present, and deadly threat emanating from Moscow, say @josephestiglitz.bsky.social and @andrewkosenko.bsky.social. Now, exercising power means financing Ukraine with Russia's frozen assets. bit.ly/48j4b1Z
28.11.2025 16:18 β π 11 π 8 π¬ 0 π 0
Very grateful to have been interviewed by Eugenio Occorsio @larepubblica.bsky.social
www.repubblica.it/esteri/2025/...
RE: Putin's "swap" offers:
This was Gromyko's negotiating strategy:
1) Demand something that has never been yours
2) Threaten during negotiations
3) Because there will *always* be someone in the West who gives you something
And then you'll have a third, or a half, of something you have never had.
Trump's meeting with Putin in Budapest is a gift to Putin for many reasons.
Key among them is that Putin is wanted by the ICC in The Hague. Him going to Hungary will require forcing European countries not to arrest him β which then creates a precedent to disregard the ICC arrest warrant worldwide.οΏΌ
Massive π·πΊ combined missile/drone strike on πΊπ¦ tonight.
Perhaps the *worst* strike on Kyiv and Kyiv region so far.
Russia is a terror state.
Three (3) conferences in eight (8) days.
Negative returns are real.
Intrusion of π·πΊ drones into π΅π± shows difficulties πΊπ¦ (recently - 800 π·πΊ drones into πΊπ¦) is facing
>= 12 drones, 4-5 shot down. Interception rate β¬οΈ, using $$$ fighters, $$$ missiles (much more expensive than drones & targets, if any, themselves).
No (known) use of anti-drone drones, machine guns, or EW
Otherwise, what will it take?!?!
A "stray" Russian bomber over Paris or London?!
No amount of minimizing Russia's actions will decrease their severity.
Seize their assets.
It's one of the few remaining nonviolent but powerful tools.
Poland and NATO will have to respond.
And while they will nearly certainly not choose an offensive military response, whatever reaction emerges has to be forceful yet nonviolent.
Seize Russia's frozen assets already.
Putin likes testing new leaders.
He tested Zelensky similarly early on. That's what the attack on Poland was probably about.
No doubt it was deliberate. Nawrocki is being tested.
Truly bizarre article, under the rubric of "analysis"
The analyst seems to think that you need the aggressor's consent to win against him...
& similar to Obama admin's approach ("Putin cares more, so we shouldn't do anything at all")
Much analysis. Such insight.
www.nytimes.com/2025/09/10/w...
The prime minister of Ukraine in the government building today. This is one floor above her office.
Today was the largest attack by Russia since β¦. ever: 800 drones, over a dozen missiles. Kyiv is burning.
Russian GPS jamming over the Baltic closed a Finnish airport for a month
Russia was behind a plot to put explosives on cargo planes from πͺπΊ to North America
DHL cargo plane crashed, due to Russian GPS interference
Ignoring Putin and pretending things aren't happening will make things worse.
2/2
βThe whole airport area GPS went dark"
Her plane circled for 1 hour, then landed using analogue maps.
This is an attack. Enough with the "plausible deniability" and doing nothing in response to clearly dangerous and deliberate action.
1/n
www.ft.com/content/3c33...
To finally, decisively end π·πΊ invasion of πΊπ¦ we need
1) deoccupation of all occupied πΊπ¦ territory
2) reparations for the unthinkable destruction & the damage wrought on an entire generation
3) Nuremberg-style tribunal for π·πΊ war criminals
Instead, Trump has lowered the bar to *A MEETING*
"Tom Clancy's The Idiot"
28.08.2025 02:08 β π 0 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0Signed.
Please share!
So I guess you cannot indict a ham sandwich after all :)
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/u...
Have just unironically used the Ionescu-Tulcea theorem for the first time (i.e. outside of a class, and not when reading other people's papers)
Math is magic
FFS
Dubya looked Putin in the eye, and saw his soul.
Obama had the "reset"
Trump 1 was all over him
Biden showed a lot of backbone (but provided only enough wapons for πΊπ¦ not to lose, not enough to win. And didn't seize π·πΊ assets)
Trump 2 is still dancing with him
www.state.gov/releases/202...
How many times does this have to happen for an American president to realize the gravity of the threat to πΊπΈ from Russia?
Instead of pretending it's not there so that they don't have to deal with it.
Perhaps something to start convo with Putin in Alaska.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/12/u...
Major "peace in our time" vibes
09.08.2025 14:40 β π 2 π 0 π¬ 0 π 0The significance of a πΊπ¦ withdrawal from Donbas is that there are *massive* defensive fortification lines there. Russia has not been able to break through them.
This proposal would just... give it all to the invader without a shot.
π·πΊ will then be within a striking shot of Kharkiv and Dnipro.
The rest of the plan is equally horrendous.
First, πΊπ¦ withdraws from its land.
And only then will there be another "final" peace plan, negotiated by Trump and Putin, that will be presented to Zelensky.
Russia gives up nothing, Ukraine everything.
Madness.
Zelensky is already being cast as recalcitrant, uncompromising. Putin's exploitation of Trump's desire for any deal is working.
And... "land swap"?!? πΊπ¦ land for... (getting to keep) other πΊπ¦ land?!
Gee, what a swap.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/09/w...
And keep in mind: an arrest warrant has been issued by the International Criminal Court for Putin, for the crime of abduction of tens of thousands of πΊπ¦ children
President Trump will be meeting with a psychopath criminal.
Furthermore, today was Trump's deadline for a deal, or Russia would have to face sanctions.
But we have no deal, and no sanctions.
N.B. Zelensky cannot "sign away" territory. It's not a power that any Ukrainian president has.
Far beyond being insane, bloody, appeasement, it's quite literally impossible.
