Angry

It’s hard to say, because there’s some evidence that Iranian forces aren’t using much of their top tier stuff yet.

We’ve only seen a few missiles with submunitions so far.

Whether that means they’re saving them for later, or that they simply don’t have many is up for debate.

Finally, the military has hard stop inventory requirements for true “break glass in case of emergency” situations.

These are minimum stock levels that we won’t go below unless absolutely necessary, based on projected needs for a major war.

I just hope the admin listens.

We’re already seeing mission creep. We went from ‘a week of strikes’ to ‘maybe 4-5 weeks’ in literally a day.

I’m reminded of the conservative panic that Obama was using all our bombs on ISIS, and I hope someone is telling Trump that no, we can’t actually do this forever.

2. Trump is already floating the idea of tapping into supplies at other combatant commands.

Talking about taking from PACOM to feed CENTCOM on day 3 is… rough.

At this point, it’s a race to destroy their missiles before we have to ration our interceptors.

1. Trump is already doing his hyperbolic: “we could do this forever!” nonsense.

I’ve often joked that the military has so many stockpiles that our stockpiles have stockpiles, and that’s largely still true for offensive weapons.

Not the case for defense.

Standard doctrine calls for using 2 (or more) interceptors per missile to increase chances of a successful hit.

At some point, this just becomes a math problem.

What does that look like? Eventually, you get to extreme interceptor rationing and accepting leakage.

Interceptors are expensive and slow to produce, especially when compared with the relative speed of cheap ballistic missiles and drones.

This quote nails it:

“They can chuck garbage at us for substantially longer than we can chuck Lamborghinis at them.”

Let’s talk Iranian war.

You’ve probably seen a lot of hand-wringing over missile interceptor quantities. Are we running out? Can we fight for years?

As usual, the answer is somewhere in the middle.

Bottom line up front: interceptors are a finite resource. That’s a fact.

Well, we did it because of the protesters

Nukes

I mean they’re building an ICBM

We did it defensively because Iran was going to attack us

I mean Israel was gonna do it anyway so we did it too

They were gonna attack us because Israel was gonna attack them so we attacked them

Another side effect from his suspected Alzheimer’s treatment? Or is he turning into one of the lizard people?

The US Embassy in Riyadh seems to have taken a direct hit.

No idea on casualties, but it looks bad. Hope it was evacuated.

Trump and Hegseth both opened the door to boots on the ground in Iran today.

Who the fuck voted for that?

😲 Qatar says they shot down two Iranian Su-24s

CENTCOM now says 3 F-15s were shot down by friendly fire over Kuwait. All crew members are alive and in good condition. 🤦‍♂️

3 F-15s 🤦‍♂️

Rumors are friendly fire. We’ll have to wait on more info there

A F-15 went down over Kuwait.

Early indications are that both crew members were able to eject and survived, but waiting on more information.

Both times, actually.

Were NOT completely obliterated back then.

But there was also no evidence they were building an ICBM now.

So for all you “leave NATO” dummies out there, wanna explain how we defend ourselves without them?

Britain, France, Germany, the GCC (Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Oman) are currently knocking down Iranian missiles and drones.

And this is just Iran. Not a peer.

Fuck.

3 US service members KIA and 5 severely wounded on the first day of fighting.

Iran claims to have targeted the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier with four ballistic missiles.

I’m skeptical, and I definitely haven’t seen any evidence of that yet, but worth paying attention to.

That’s an interesting development

Alright folks, a little shy of 30 mins. I’m going to try to grab a few hours of sleep and hope the world doesn’t fall apart more in the meantime.

Thanks for spending part of your Saturday with me. <3

I don’t think so. Not this time at least.

Certainly not saying it’s impossible, but our military and intelligence apparatus is top notch, and most people are scared that we’ll nuke them if they attack our homeland.

To be fair, we probably would.

Not really, no. The timeline got moved up a little bit because of the meeting at the Supreme Leader’s compound, but only by a few hours.

They were going to wait until nightfall, but decided the opportunity was too good to pass up.

Doubt it. He’ll play the appeals game until he dies.

I think that’s unlikely. There have been claims that “Iranian hackers’ were going to release the files all day today. Obviously that hasn’t materialized.

No, they won’t.

So far, the only line we’ve identified for the GOP was trying to tax millionaires. They said fuck no to that.

Everything else seems to be fair game.

They definitely have a detailed succession plan and plans for strikes on specific bases in the event of a mass decapitation strike (like we witnessed today).

Obviously, the USAF and IAF are doing everything they can to prevent Iran from launching missiles, but unlikely they stop them all.

Oof. I’m sorry to hear that. I hope he and his troops stay safe.

The administration seems to think we can bomb them for a week or so and then go back to normal.

I think that’s probably optimistic, but they DID take out a ton of IRGC leadership today too. Maybe it’ll go better than I think.