VK

OMG

Lol these companies are just meh

Oof

Good points

😮

😮

Is an oil spill in Hormuz a real risk right now?

Yeah I mean market doesn’t seem overly optimistic about it atm!

Trump Says US Will Escort, Insure Oil Tankers Amid the Iran War President Donald Trump said the US will provide insurance guarantees and naval escorts to ensure safe passage for oil tankers and other vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, intending to head off a po...

www.bloomberg.com/news/article...

Here’s the story

I think more than insurance the focus should be on if US navy escorts can allow oil to flow.

If so, then risks from energy come down a lot. If drone strikes or something else stops it, then risks are still here

Right - when you need them, you need lots. When you don’t you don’t at all

Wow

Lol

Ok thanks!

Brutal selling in EM FX at the moment:

Does this estimate tankers which are turning AIS off?

No I don’t think it’s significant for oil or gas atm given the amount of supply at risk.

Lastly, the rumours of the UAE’s demise are vastly exaggerated. Sorry Ed Davey (a cunt who I’ll never vote for). This is a city that’s seen 700 drone attacks since Sat

Parks full, restaurants busy, beach chilled

I am obviously bias given my location, but once oil and gas flows, it will become a non-issue for markets with risk premia pricing.

I’m just saying we’re not there yet

Just from a game theory perspective, I don’t see how this gets better before it gets worse.

$80 oil isn’t high enough to hit trump’s pain threshold

Current dmg on Iran isn’t enough to hit theirs

Rather than hearing from haters..

The main reason you wanan come is if you use Dubai as a stopover to Asia.

In return you get access to nice beaches, hotels which are amazing value for money, decent water park for kids, and nice restaurants

Also it’s super clean and safe 🤷🏽‍♂️

I’ve learned to ignore day 1 moves after spx finished green on day of ru invasion of ukr

Outrageous!

Sadly yes. Market will get bored once they have th next thing to move on to.

Can you expand on this?

Moody’s back at Oct 25 levels at 480, after falling to 400 recently.

I hope you’re right BB. I don’t comment on politics often but doing this disheartening

Who cares about spot labour market improvements when we have a future phantom to focus on?

Really depressing stuff.

I’m not kidding. Here is the BoE UK TWI from 2025. (Triggered by something in the FT).