VK

Summer’s over 😎

Oh and I’m not even a London doomer (since I love coming back whenever I do)

Don’t live in Dubai, and I also don’t think I could, but Abu Dhabi is pretty great.

There are genuine pros and cons of both even putting aside the money.

Sadly I’m not a PC guy but keen to learn more

What’s the best thing to read on the BDC issues/ drawdown?

“We dont need risk management” or similar was the jist of the conversation

Dude thinks he’s Buffett - I’ve met him

I know it’s early but I’m most excited for Amazon’s earnings this quarter.

- We get a sense of rebounding (or not) retail revenues including margins
- How anthropic is boosting AWS revenues
- Outlook for their new Tranium chips - which Semianalysis calls Amazon basics lol

Such an egg head

Yep fair point!

His history at Tesla tells us he will absolutely go all in with debt etc when needed so no reason for him to change tact here I suppose.

So openAI gets 100bn from NVDA while xAI and Elon gets 2bn as part of a follow on round plus has to take out 12.5bn as part of an SPV?

Doesn’t sound great for him

Thanks looking toward to this one

I am also doubting the revenues. We don’t know how it’s attributed

How are oracle generating revenues on gb200’s if most of their new DCs are being built?

They literally included deprecation 😂😂😂😂😂😂

This makes 0 sense.

Coreweave gross margins are 75%. Semianalysis estimates Oracle’s GMs at 80%.

All costs other than housing and electricity occur below the line.

Coreweave’s excess capacity was rented out by Meta.

People forget how long it takes to bring online large infra projects.

Largest 1GW DCs won’t be operational until H2 2026.

I think extreme shortage in all things infra is likely until then

This is exactly right

Can imagine!

I think the HF life means you get caught up in a lot of noise, but can often miss the big picture. Also this is a better way to live life when running money

In this industry having time to think and slowing is so important.

It’s easy to go from one project to another, produce a report with some implications and then move on.

Adam Tooze doesn’t once acknowledge UK core inflation has settled around 3%, nor that low rates failed to boost investment pre-pandemic

Also who funds Elon now?

Last point - maybe 2027 will be us reading articles about alll the unfinished DCs that have been abandoned in the US al la China’s ghost cities

If that doesn’t tell you about market dominance in tech then I don’t know what does!

We need more on how NVDA was able to get openAI equity while AMD got fleeced just so OpenAI tries their chips

The way this gets crazier is if Hyperscalers also decide to tap debt markets or issue equity to fund capex.

If this is really a race to some elusive crazy end goal then Meta and Google are most likely to go all in. Meta currently behind and hit post Sora release

Msft and Amazon more conservative

There’s also a potential doom loop from the unwind what’s been a virtuous cycle in:

Higher stocks > more investment > higher stocks > more consumption > higher stocks

We have transitioned from robust foundations in Hyperscalers FCF to obscure promises of financing unlikely never materialise. What pool of capital exists to fund this?

While this may be the start, it’s a very large unstable layer now added to the complex that ensures collapse when things stop

AI demand can be exponential. Video is highly compute intensive. Doesn’t mean everyone should do it for free.

Same with Deep Research, Agents or whatever.

The Social Network analogy also falls over since the marginal costs of service were much smaller. Marginal cost is real right now.