Xavier MacDuff

Oh man! You don't deserve this!

Yeah, it's insane that we can make a single post, and then someone will pop up to demand an explanation of how the comment can be derived from first principles. And then there are the people asking for things they could Google themselves.

This move in Alphabet stock is really going to trash 2025 relative performance for so many active equity managers. Brutal.

It feels like my Substack feed is now entirely taken up by descriptive "deep dives" on individual stocks, and anthologies of investing "wisdom", almost all of which are written by AI. Just dreadful to wade through it all.

I can highly recommend the winter light show at Edinburgh Zoo!

Bed, Bath & Beyond numbers pointing in the other direction!! And so are plenty of others!

Jamie Oliver hits back at cultural appropriation claims over ‘jerk’ rice 'My intention was only to show where my inspiration came from.'

Just absolutely insane that a British chef isn’t allowed to do his twist on jerk rice!

So many US equity market darlings have been absolutely crushed this year.

Probably Grafton for quality management or Marshalls for operating leverage. James Latham with good founder family leadership, but might not be cheap enough given tiny size and low liquidity.

For example, Breedon being flat today despite guiding slightly below expectations shows how far sentiment and valuations have already moved here.

UK building materials names firms looking interesting here. 🇬🇧

✅️ FCF +ve at >10% ROICs.
✅️ 10yr-low multiples.
✅️ MSD TSR over last decade, despite tough economy & de-rating.
✅️ Low debt or net cash balance sheets.
✅️ Sentiment negative about UK cyclicals.
✅️ BoE cutting over next year.
✅️ Good dividends.

Let's hope somebody writes it!

Probably another example of the listed parent either extracting too much of the cash for themselves or imposing too much bureaucracy.

Investing in Emerging Markets: Risks, Rewards & Realities | #20 Spotify video

And here is an excellent podcast with Glen Finegan, a protégé of Angus Tulloch, who now runs Skerryvore Asset Management following a similar investment process.

I think we can now safely say that this credit cycle peaked about 1 year ago.

Single B spreads failed to even re-test the lows this summer, and have since been leaking wider.

Scandinavian countries rank high on GDP per capita, on the Human Development Index, and low on inequality. They're exactly the countries we should be trying to emulate for a better and more successful society.

It's really hard for politicians not to make such changes when an issue polls like this.

Zak Polanski on Newsnight last night was trying to argue that immigration isn't a problem. I don't think that position washes with the public.

A lot of left-wing politicians and activists absolutely losing their minds over the UK immigration reforms.

Who would have thought that aligning with Denmark would have caused such a big issue. 🇩🇰

Wow. Reform vs Green reps arguing on Newsnight is a grim look into our political future.

US speculative names

while the headline indices have barely moved off the highs, the carnage in the low quality hype stuff like quantum computing, nuclear energy etc is quite something just month to date:

Can it just be a run of bad luck that we've had 7 consecutive terrible Prime Ministers?

At what point does the UK stop blaming problems on poor leaders and considers if the rot goes much deeper?

Really good list of investing maxims from Angus Tulloch, who retired in 2017 with an excellent long-term track record of managing the Stewart Investors Asia Pacific Fund.

Added Greggs plc to my PA portfolio.

✅️ Leading vertically integrated UK food on-the-go business.
✅️ Consistently delivering ROIC >20%
✅️ +6.1% lfl sales in 3Q25.
✅️ Zero net financial debt.
✅️ Decade low EV/EBITDA multiple.
✅️ 11.9x P/E ratio (2026 consensus)
✅️ 4.4% dividend yield (well-covered)

Latest reading: "1929" by Andrew Ross Sorkin.

With access to many new sources, this is an excellent updated history even for those who have read "The Great Crash" by JK Galbraith. A real page-turner.

Many parallels to today too!

Interesting angle, thanks.

Sage, Experian, and LSEG also might need to invest in AI to remain relevant with customers.

I think one of his key problems is the heroic position-sizing.

I actually own both of those names. But I have much smaller positions and other names are doing well, so I can take the volatility.

a man in a red suit sits at a desk with a glass in front of a screen that says channel 4 news ALT: a man in a red suit sits at a desk with a glass in front of a screen that says channel 4 news

Nick Train after seeing Diageo's trading update today.