Gregory Poling

Anutin "Returns Power to the People" A new election will be held in early 2026

Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's request to dissolve parliament has been granted. An election will be held within 45-60 days.

A look at what brought us here and where we stand:
www.coffeeparliament.com/p/anutin-ret...

“Indonesia has forged a path of nonalignment, pursuing a strategy of what former President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono described as ‘a million friends and zero enemies.’”

Read more from @seasia.csis.org on Indonesia's global strategy: www.csis.org/analysis/bet... 

Some thoughts on the new 2025 National Security Strategy, particularly as it relates to Asia & Southeast Asia 🧵: www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...

The subtle signs of being an elder millennial girl-dad...

As far as I can see, this nat sec strategy is far harsher on Europe than on Russia. There is no mention of a threat from Russia or of deterrence, only that "re-establishing strategic stability" is a priority. Europe is cast as a major threat to freedom. A radical, dangerous document.

In a multipolar world, "the support of the global majority will be necessary for the success of most rules and institutions," write @gregpoling.bsky.social and Andreyka Natalegawa. Their new analysis uses data to unpack alignment with U.S. and Chinese leadership.

www.csis.org/analysis/glo... 

RM @meeks.house.gov: Ending TPS for Burma, in the middle of the conflict there, endangers the lives of many Burmese, including human rights and democracy activists. It's cruel and will undermine the fight for democracy in Burma. The admin must reconsider this terrible decision.

I'm confident not a single Burma watcher in the US govt would assess that Myanmar "has made notable progress in governance and stability." Yet DHS is claiming as much in order to deport thousands to an active war zone.

After 14 years, I think the time has come to acknowledge that the "Rebalance to Asia" has failed.

I've spent the last decade writing and thinking about how to make the rebalance successful, so this is a painful realization.

A thread on my new piece for RSIS...

Remembering Jerome A. Cohen Jerome Alan Cohen (July 1, 1930 – September 22, 2025) was a renowned American lawyer who was one of the foremost foreign scholars of Chinese law. After studying law at Yale, Cohen embarked on a career...

In case you missed it last week:

We gathered a few friends and colleagues to write about the extraordinary life of Jerome A. Cohen (1930-2025), renowned lawyer and scholar of Chinese law.

The Dilemma of Shan State for Myanmar’s Revolution If there is any hope that the current civil war will lead to the reestablishment of a unified Myanmar, creative solutions will have to be found to resolve the conflicting claims in Shan State.

"If there is any hope that the current civil war will lead to the reestablishment of a unified Myanmar, creative solutions will have to be found to resolve the conflicting claims in Shan State," writes CSIS's Michael Martin.

Read the full commentary: www.csis.org/analysis/dil...

Starving children screaming for food as US aid cuts unleash devastation and death across Myanmar U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly said “no one has died" because of his government’s decision to gut its foreign aid program.

Horrific reporting from the AP on the Myanmar families watching their kids starve to death from Trump and Musk’s aid cuts apnews.com/article/myan...

"A clear pattern is emerging in Southeast Asian responses to U.S. economic pressure, with most states seeking to mitigate both the short- and long-term risks of partnering with the United States," notes @gregpoling.bsky.social.

Read more from @seasia.csis.org: www.csis.org/analysis/sou...

What a graph

Remember, social media posts aren’t trade agreements.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!

worth pointing out, again, that a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports alone (our sixth-largest trading partner!) would have been considered the worst trade war in modern American history pre-Trump. Instead it is now treated as a "deal". How far we've fallen.

Scarborough Shoal a growing flashpoint between China and Philippines, think tank says Scarborough Shoal has reemerged as the focal point of tensions between Manila and Beijing in the South China Sea, according to a report released Monday by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative.

"Increased patrolling east of the shoal (..) suggests that China is using the nine-dash line rather than the territorial sea or another maritime zone from Scarborough as its imagined jurisdictional boundary” www.stripes.com/theaters/asi...

Fifteenth Annual South China Sea Conference | CSIS Events The CSIS Southeast Asia Program and Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative are pleased to present the Fifteenth Annual South China Sea Conference.

Tune in at 10am ET for the 15th(!!) @csis.org South China Sea Conference www.csis.org/events/fifte...

Logo is back up at the US Institute of Peace where it belongs — small but important court victory against DOGE’s illegal actions.

A Tale of Two Reams: Questions Remain at Cambodia’s Growing Naval Base | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative After the official opening of Cambodian-Chinese joint facilities at Ream Naval Base in early April, the base quickly hosted visits from both Japan and Vietnam. But closer examination of those visits, ...

Closer examination of those visits suggests that China maintains exclusive access to some facilities, including the base’s largest pier. And recent photos of progress at a nearby air defense site only raise more questions about the true extent of Beijing’s military presence in the area.

RFA announces mass layoffs, shutdown of major language services Uyghur, Tibetan, Burmese will halt content production, programming on May 9

RFA services going dark as USAGM ignores a court order to disburse its Congressionally appropriated funding. www.rfa.org/english/abou...

The Archive is troubled to learn that President Trump yesterday fired all nine members of the State Department's Advisory Committee on Historical Diplomatic Documentation, a statutory body that has operated without presidential interference for over 20 years. history.state.gov/about/hac/in...

www.straitstimes.com/world/united...

Trump tariffs, corporations cower During the Biden administration, corporate executives regularly expressed their displeasure with policies they opposed.

1. We contacted the 100 largest American companies and asked a simple question:

Do you support the tariffs announced by President Trump on April 2?

These are tariffs that have already destroyed trillions of shareholder value

NOT ONE COMPANY WOULD ANSWER THE QUESTION

Thailand, India legitimize Min Aung Hlaing with these engagements at BIMSTEC. His junta controls a third of Myanmar; this isn't pragmatic engagement, it's picking the losing side in a civil war.

Trump ousts members of National Security Council staff The NSC shake-up followed a White House visit by Laura Loomer, a far-right activist who urged Trump to purge staff with hawkish foreign policy views.

Decades of national security expertise wiped away in Washington yesterday at the urging of a far-right conspiracist who was once banned from Uber for anti-Muslim rants and claimed 9/11 was an 'inside job.' wapo.st/3R3zRAu

Pretty sure @wilsoncenter.org is mostly privately funded. This is absurd.

Welcome to CSIS, @kristigovella.bsky.social!

Read our full announcement about Dr. Govella’s appointment as CSIS Senior Adviser and Japan Chair below👇

Trump’s USAID cuts cripple American response to Myanmar earthquake Three days after the quake, there are no U.S. teams on the ground in Myanmar, a stark illustration of how Trump has upended America’s role in disaster response.

We're seeing in real time the terrible consequences of Musk & Trump's dismantling of USAID.

A devastating earthquake has killed thousands — and many more will die without vital U.S. aid.

The AID officials in charge had just gotten their termination letters. America in retreat.

DOGE Is Trying to Gift Itself a $500 Million Building, Court Filings Show The documents reveal a DOGE affiliate is attempting to transfer the headquarters of an independent think tank, the United States Institute of Peace, to the government at no cost.

Here's how it works:

1. DOGE fires everybody at USIP.
2. A DOGE guy from GSA gets installed USIP's acting president.
3. That guy agrees to transfer USIP's $500 million headquarters back to GSA—for free.

www.wired.com/story/doge-t...