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Tim Dowse

@timdowse.bsky.social

Consultant, after 40 years with FCO, Cabinet Office, HM Treasury. Specialties: national security, defence, geopolitical analysis.

788 Followers  |  527 Following  |  1,367 Posts  |  Joined: 03.11.2023
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Posts by Tim Dowse (@timdowse.bsky.social)

Thank you.

03.03.2026 16:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

I'm sorry to have irritated you, but that is why I said "if". What did you mean by "SW1" ?

03.03.2026 16:03 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

But SW1 (if you mean HMG), strikingly, has explicitly *not* supported "the war" in the sense of backing the US/Israeli assault on Iran. What it has supported is defence of the UK's friends and economic interests in the Gulf, and of the UK bases in Cyprus.

03.03.2026 11:51 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Statement of US war aims from White House spokesperson, on X.

Statement of US war aims from White House spokesperson, on X.

The current action is not about regime change, but it is going to stop Iran making improvised explosive devices? Good luck with that.

02.03.2026 22:04 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

The contrast between the US SecDef belittling European allies and the French president outlining a forward-deterrent scheme for Europe today is quite something.

02.03.2026 16:25 β€” πŸ‘ 123    πŸ” 26    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 1

The fact that after three days of bombardment Iran was able to get these in the air seems fairly remarkable.

02.03.2026 21:21 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Also, anyone who has watched the USAF build-up over the past few weeks will have seen how much the US needs European co-operation. Not enough tankers to dispense with UK or German staging bases.

01.03.2026 22:36 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I suspect a number of European leaders will delay, in the hope that things in the US will return to something approximating "normal" after 2028 - maybe even after November this year. A risky assumption.

01.03.2026 09:45 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

My impression is that those European and other leaders who are expressing reservations are doing so, not because they like the appalling Iranian regime (who could?), but because they are concerned at the prospect of a world without rules, where might = right.

01.03.2026 07:10 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Unfortunately, a rising oil price is potentially good news for Putin.

01.03.2026 00:39 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I said it was not impossible. But it would be an odd thing to do deliberately if you are trying to persuade people that you are on their side against their government.

28.02.2026 18:14 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 3    πŸ“Œ 0

I can’t help wondering whether giving it the same acronym as Operation Enduring Freedom (Afghanistan) makes the bureaucracy less complicated, or cheaper in some way.

28.02.2026 13:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Anyone checking the oil price?

28.02.2026 13:17 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 1

In Gaza, Israel prevented independent reporting. The Iranians would do themselves a favour if they gave access to international media.

28.02.2026 13:08 β€” πŸ‘ 32    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 7    πŸ“Œ 1

Not impossible, but I’d like to see some independent corroboration. β€œIranian state media” is hardly the most credible source.

28.02.2026 12:59 β€” πŸ‘ 59    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 29    πŸ“Œ 8
Preview
America and Israel bomb Iran, aiming to topple its regime Donald Trump calls on Iranians to rise up. War could quickly engulf the Middle East

β€˜Neither is it likely that the protests will resume while missiles are flying. β€œWhen bombs are falling, people don’t take to the streets,” observes an Israeli intelligence analyst.’
economist.com/middle-east-...

28.02.2026 12:49 β€” πŸ‘ 30    πŸ” 7    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 3

It was a good discussion.

Interesting to see what this does to the oil price. That could be a silver lining for Putin, who otherwise faces yet another exposure of Russia's inability to help its friends and allies overseas.

28.02.2026 09:51 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Surprised they let him through the door, what with not even wearing a suit. Or has the dress code been relaxed since Zelensky?

26.02.2026 07:48 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I'll look forward to a mention in the credits (and a share of the royalties).

25.02.2026 08:09 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

If only they could chat to their neighbours. One wonders what Ho Chi Minh would have to say to Duncan Sandys. Probably more than King George I to Bobby Moore.

25.02.2026 07:55 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image

Can anyone explain why, on this day of all days, there is a Russian flag flying from a lamp-post in Philadelphia? (Photo from a livestream on Earthcam.)

24.02.2026 20:08 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

As I recall, Bertie Wooster’s Aunt Dahlia was a good egg.

The opposite of Aunt Agatha, who was a blot on the landscape.

24.02.2026 18:17 β€” πŸ‘ 8    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

I have a lot of respect for Israel's intelligence services. They often seem to have a more realistic appreciation of the threats Israel faces than its current policy-makers. But their briefings to journalists are often intended to influence rather than inform.

24.02.2026 17:35 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Interesting. Depends on how much lower the lower-intensity strikes are, I suppose.

But I usually look for a ulterior motive where stories attributed to Israeli intelligence are concerned. I wonder if this might be intended to persuade the Iranians they can ride it out, and so not to cut a deal.

24.02.2026 14:51 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

"Clothes-pins"? I imagine that eating those might well stop you talking in your sleep. Or anywhere else.

24.02.2026 14:34 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

He appears to have found some people attempting to migrate illegally by boat that he actually likes.

22.02.2026 16:42 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

ICYMI? Seriously?

I suppose there might be someone - maybe a hermit living on the moon.

21.02.2026 06:17 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Preview
A war foretold: how the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them Drawing on more than 100 interviews with senior intelligence officials and other insiders in multiple countries, this exclusive account details how the US and Britain uncovered Vladimir Putin’s plans ...

A good read.

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int...

20.02.2026 13:20 β€” πŸ‘ 84    πŸ” 35    πŸ’¬ 4    πŸ“Œ 4

Help. I keep losing track of what is supposed to be a distraction from what.

20.02.2026 08:33 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

Depressing photo. Makes DC - a city I really like - look disturbingly like Pyongyang.

19.02.2026 23:20 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0