Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau

SF FedViews: Slow Job Growth in a Strong Economy - San Francisco Fed Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook from the Economic Research Department as of January 15, 2026.

@npn.bsky.social does a good chartbook on US economy in this SF FedViews

Chart showing contribution to labor force growth per month ('000s) for each six month period from first half 2023 to first half 2025. Changes are broken down into changes in the participation rate for foreign and native born workers and changes in the population for foreign and native categories.

SF Fed from earlier this week suggests 50k breakeven rate for payrolls, with the downshift almost entirely driven by immigration changes. Consistent with prior Dallas Fed note arguing breakeven payrolls around 30k by 2H '25.
SF: www.frbsf.org/research-and...
Dallas: www.dallasfed.org/research/eco...

FRB SF Micro Macro Labor Conference
Dec. 12 in San Francisco
Last day to submit!

Organized this year with Lindsey Uniat and Rob Valletta
Send your paper to: SF.ER.MicroMacroConference@sf.frb.org
More details below.

Call for papers for the SF Fed Workshop on Expectations and Behavioral Macroeconomics

📢 𝑪𝒂𝒍𝒍 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝑷𝒂𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒔: Workshop on 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗕𝗲𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗶𝗼𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗠𝗮𝗰𝗿𝗼𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗰𝘀 at the SF Fed

🌁 San Francisco, October 27, 2025
🚨 Keynote speaker: @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social
📆 Submission deadline: July 31, 2025
➡️ Full CfP: treinelt.github.io/files/CfP_Ex...

@sanjaysingh.bsky.social

From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective (Forthcoming Article) - We analyze the effects of a monetary policy that stabilizes "shortfalls'' rather than "deviations'' of employment from its maximum level. A shortfalls-stabilization rule leads ...

Forthcoming in AEJ: Macroeconomics: "From Deviations to Shortfalls: The Effects of the FOMC's New Employment Objective" by Brent Bundick and Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

To all Econ PhD students: Want to spend the summer in San Francisco, while making rapid progress on your papers? Apply for the SF FED Dissertation Fellowship! Deadline: March 25.

Please like/RT!

#EconTwitter

More info here: www.frbsf.org/our-district...

Glad to share the 2023 SF Fed Micro-Macro Labor Economics Conference program and really grateful for all the excellent presenters and discussants.

Co-organized with @nshenhav.bsky.social and Joan Monras.

SF Fed Data Explorer Learn about our interactive tool that gives you the ability to explore, analyze, and download detailed data for various groups of people in the U.S. labor market.

The supply & demand driven PCE inflation series, as well as the cyclical/acyclical PCE inflation series, are now available on the SF Fed Data Explorer tool.

www.frbsf.org/economic-res...