Paul Heer

"[I]f Trump can accept China as a peer power rather than constantly seeking new sources of leverage and can impose his vision of great power peace on his fractious administration, he could finally swing the world off a trajectory toward conflict."

(2/2) . . . given the strategic importance it evidently now assigns to Taiwan, and US political support for Taiwan's democracy. And as long as that is the case, Beijing will not retreat from threatening the use of force.

(1/2) This is a great summary of the current situation, partly because it accepts that all three parties have played a role in fueling tensions. But here's the key sticking point: Washington may no longer be willing to accept the possibility of peaceful unification . . .

The assertion that these boats are trafficking drugs is comparable to the assertion that Kilmar Abrego Garcia is a member of MS-13. Maybe it's true and maybe it's not. Only evidence and due process can tell. But the Trump Administration has offered neither and instead disregards their relevance.

What exactly are the Republicans getting from Trump in reward for their loyalty and acquiescence? What substantive and sustainable gains? (Do they really believe he is making America great?)

Is it a coincidence that the amount of money Trump is demanding from the taxpayer-funded Justice Department is about the same as the estimated cost of the new White House ballroom that he said would not be paid for by taxpayers?

Yet another article that approaches the Taiwan issue purely in terms of military deterrence. It's a diplomatic problem that needs a diplomatic solution. But there's no US appetite for dealing with Beijing, so diplomacy is not in the cards. This only makes military conflict more likely.

"I wish both countries well"?

What Does China Want? Join as we discuss China's true goals and motivations.

I’m very excited for this discussion with @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S H Wong.

They wrote “What Does China Want?”, the rare academic article that started a social media controversy.

Join us! Sep 25 Thu 1–2pm ET
quincyinst.org/events/what-...

Think about this: Will Trump/MAGA peacefully relinquish power?

This cogent analysis from @zackcooper.bsky.social is an alarm bell for those who have failed to recognize--or refused to acknowledge--for the last 15 years that history has been moving on from the role that the United States (thought it) had in East Asia.

Wouldn't it be funny if the Republicans realized that Harris would have created fewer problems for them, and would have been easier for them to deal with?

Does it matter what's in the Epstein files? Whatever is there, the Republicans are going to prevent any prosecution or impeachment of Trump.

"By misunderstanding what China wants, the United States risks creating problems where none exist and isolating itself from East Asia in ways that are deleterious to U.S. long-term national interests." From @daveckang.bsky.social, @zenobiachan.bsky.social, and Jackie S. H. Wong.

What Does China Want? Abstract. The conventional wisdom is that China is a rising hegemon eager to replace the United States, dominate international institutions, and re-create the liberal international order in its own im...

"[T]he conventional wisdom has converged on a view that China has expansive goals to dominate not just Asia but the world; ultimately, it seeks to supplant the United States as the global hegemon. . . . We challenge this conventional wisdom."
direct.mit.edu/isec/article...

"Alaska was not just another drop in our overflowing bucket of mortifications. It was proof that for the next 41 months, no interlocutor can believe a word the U.S. president says."

"Xi’s iron grip on the military not only endures, it is also indicative of his obsession with breaking the PLA’s insularity and endemic corruption and ensuring that, should he need to bet the regime on the military’s prowess, it will not fail."

Just like Trump's meeting with Kim Jong-un. He ignored the advice that you can't get something for nothing, and instead got nothing for something.

"China’s Achilles’ heel has long been the fear it engenders with its aggressive behavior and lack of respect for other nations. Now, America is acting a lot like China and paying the price in global opinion."

Opinion | Brennan and Clapper: Let’s Set the Record Straight on Russia and 2016

"The real politicization is the calculated distortion of intelligence by administration officials, notably Mr. Trump’s directors of national intelligence and the CIA, positions that should be apolitical."

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/o...

“. . . We need a strategy that not only deals with both but recognizes the relationship between them and adjusts accordingly.” Biden acknowledged but never confronted this challenge. The Trump Administration appears even farther away from recognizing and addressing it. (3/3)

“ . . . to work with other nations to deal with shared challenges and we will not be able to do that unless we understand how a more competitive world affects cooperation and how the need for cooperation affects competition. . . ." (2/3)

An important but largely overlooked—and still highly relevant—passage from the Biden Administration’s 2022 National Security Strategy: “We cannot succeed in our competition with the major powers who offer a different vision for the world if we do not have a plan . . ." (1/3)

And Rubio left the country rather than make the announcement and confront State employees himself.

Consequently, the stability and the stature and the very notion of America as we have long known it are all eroding. The most important open question is whether this condition is terminal, or might still be reversed. (END)

Meanwhile, virtually all foreign and domestic policy has become reckless and inconsistent. Political discourse has become both shrill and futile. The country is becoming only more polarized, and now more violent. (3/4)

In their response to this, Congress, the Supreme Court, and half of the American people—out of fear, excessive caution, and gullibility, respectively—are not exercising their constitutional power to push back in an effort to save the country. (2/4)

What’s happening here? The US Government is now being driven by two things: the impulsive whims of an egotistical leader who recognizes no limits on his power; and a new “deep state” that is using him as the vehicle for its retrograde and revengeful agenda. (1/4)

"A lot of people don't understand that."

"This is not something POTUS is not addressing." America would be much better off if there was a lot more that POTUS was not addressing.