Georgina Wright

Sorry, deleted previous thread for nuance :) -- but your point still stands!

(Have reposted thread for clarify and nuance)

France offers to station nuclear weapons across Europe for the first time President Emmanuel Macron lays out nuclear doctrine of ‘forward deterrence’

Long speech (as expected) but will comfort many EU countries worried about Russia and lessening of US security guarantee. Also important for FR to lock in deeper cooperation before 2027 election.
www.ft.com/content/45d9...

2) .. not clear whether aircraft wd carry nukes
3) Pursue deeper cooperation with EU partners
4) FR retains full autonomy over decision-making (aka when to deploy weapons). 2/3

Good piece in FT detailing Macron's speech on French nuclear deterrence. Confirms that FR will:
1) Increase arsenal (without providing exact numbers as per FR doctrine)
2) For 1st time, talks of deploying strategic assets abroad (but as @hfayet.bsky.social notes: priority is on aircraft...) 1/3

Trump has a foreign policy textbook. Attacking while regime is weak is definitely a classic.

Possibly. Or this was always a US-Israel (or US nudge for Israel to join) attack.

And yet, no-one should be surprised. Strike when the regime is at its weakest is definitely textbook Trump.

I don’t either, but pride etc. Not sure they’d just hunker down…

If Iran hits US military infrastructure, I think that wd provide military justification for counter-attack. Remember Israel is attacking Iran right now. Whether it has US support/nudge is unclear, but not impossible.

Unless your calculation is that Iran is pretty weak & may choose to attack a US army base — which would then, of course, justify US intervention.

😅

Great thread of what a multi-speed Europe means in practice. It’s the key thing to come out of y’day’s informal EU summit on competitiveness: MS have given EU Commission the green light to explore different formats to move fwd on competitiveness& expect it to present a plan at March European Council

French trolling is just superb.

I say: "[Macron] has street cred, if you will, of being one of the first to call for Europe to play more of a role in its defense”. Yes, I did use the word street cred.

Sunglasses, and Stormy Times, Lift France’s Embattled Leader

France's influence in Europe has declined since Macron dissolved Assemblée Nationale in June 2024. Two exceptions stand out: Ukraine and now Greenland, where Paris has been key in forging a strong European response. My thoughts for @nytimes.com: www.nytimes.com/2026/01/29/w...

UK and EU to renew talks on defence fund access Talks that are due to take place next month take on fresh urgency after the transatlantic rupture in Davos

And here we go again... this time on 2 February in London:

www.ft.com/content/2be6...

Good thread on new Franco-German report on how to get more capital flowing to support European start-ups & scale-ups. Don't think 28th regime is the answer (too politically fraught) -- and agree the solution lies in allowing pension funds/others to do more risk-taking (but also politically tricky)

Trump’s threats since start of yr have changed thinking in Brussels. Doubt EU leaders will decide tonight to slap tariffs & cut market access — but they will ask EU Commission to accelerate thinking on retaliatory measures just in case US changes its mind. Better to be prepared than caught off guard

The reality, I think, was both. Soft diplomacy by some & willingness to go hard if that failed. And discussions with US business at Davos, I assume.

The Greenland Episode Must Be a Lesson for Europe and NATO They cannot return to the comforts of asymmetric reliance, dressed up as partnership.

This, by @sophiabesch.bsky.social, is excellent & perfectly captures the Greenland debate in D.C. and in Brussels. Sophia's warnings are right: Europe must wake up & do more. I think it will -- and that Davos has significantly altered EU thinking on the US: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...

Doubt he promised anything without prior Danish consent.

The market had assumed that Trump wdn’t go through with threat and/or that Europe wd not respond. But last few weeks have changed Brussels’ approach to US administration. The feeling is that the President’s words cannot be fully trusted & that all responses must now be seriously considered.

💯. Hence why it would be wrong not to prepare a strong European response.

Listening to current speech at Davos. I feel so tired…

Who knows. But it feels like a primer.

What I find truly remarkable/unsurprising with this whole piece is how confident they are in their policies — yet conveniently omitting part abt Trump rolling back a number of tariffs (bad for economy), or how tariffs have increased consumer prices & costs for businesses.

US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick on Why the Trump administration is going to Davos. Are they planning to announce something tomorrow?

Congratulations Jana! So wonderful to see you and your work recognised in this way.

3. What is unclear is what happens next — with Maduro now captured, to Venezuela, etc. Will US continue to strike (and if so, a vote in Congress will be required)? END.