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daniel a. smith

@electionsmith.bsky.social

political science professor; state politics scholar (direct democracy, voting, elections); cynic, skeptic, & part-time africanist; personal musings

5,669 Followers  |  158 Following  |  116 Posts  |  Joined: 12.07.2023  |  2.3966

Latest posts by electionsmith.bsky.social on Bluesky

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Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting Tens of millions of voting-eligible Americans live with disabilities, many of whom need a form of assistance when casting ballots. Drawing on publicly…

"Assisting the vote? Disability as a cost of voting" is now out at Electoral Studies www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

17.09.2025 13:12 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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"Welcome to the Free State of Florida" In-Migration and Rising Republicanism in the Sunshine State

open.substack.com/pub/election...

29.08.2025 18:07 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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News Flash: Restricting Voter Registration Activities Deters Voters from Registering Voter Registration Crisis in Florida

open.substack.com/pub/election...

22.08.2025 14:19 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Trump and Mail Voting Haven't we heard this before?

open.substack.com/pub/election...

19.08.2025 00:53 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Walter Byers and the NCAA | University of Tennessee Press

Continue to be awed by my old man, now in his 90th year, Emeritus prof at Penn State, who founded the field of sport history. Walter Byers and the NCAA | University of Tennessee Press share.google/8aBlmclCEJhC...

13.07.2025 18:18 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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To all those who celebrate #InternationalJazzDay a little of George Gershwin's Embraceable You by Jim Snidero and friends at the Bird's Eye Jazz Club in Basel

30.04.2025 19:36 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Not a Teammate and Not a Fan: Probing the Identities of Unaffiliated Registered Voters | State Politics & Policy Quarterly | Cambridge Core Not a Teammate and Not a Fan: Probing the Identities of Unaffiliated Registered Voters - Volume 25 Issue 2

Now out at State Politics and Policy Quarterly www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

22.04.2025 15:07 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0

Was quite enjoyable, tbh....

20.04.2025 02:12 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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As the Miami Herald reports, "Doral, Miami-Dade’s Venezuelan stronghold, to empower cops in Trump immigration crackdown" At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

In light of the latest ICE crackdown in Miami, I’m ungating my Substack analysis from a couple weeks ago on the support for Trump in Doral. open.substack.com/pub/election...

14.04.2025 15:20 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Which Precinct in Doral is the Trumpiest? At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

open.substack.com/pub/election...

01.04.2025 09:55 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Nearly 1/5 Miami-Dade voters were born in Cuba and 57% are Republicans. Nearly 82% of GOP Cuba-born U.S. citizens voted in the 2024 GE. With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation. Will these actions erode Cuban-American...

May have time this summer to dig into this Q some more. open.substack.com/pub/election...

01.04.2025 09:33 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Which Precinct in Doral is the Trumpiest? At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

open.substack.com/pub/election...

28.03.2025 14:47 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Nearly 1/5 Miami-Dade voters were born in Cuba and 57% are Republicans. Nearly 82% of GOP Cuba-born U.S. citizens voted in the 2024 GE. With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation. Will these actions erode Cuban-American...

open.substack.com/pub/election...

28.03.2025 14:10 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Figure 1. Predicted probabilities for registering NPA/Unaffiliated by strength of partisanship.

Note: Predicted probabilities generated from the estimates in the Florida and North Carolina models in Table 2.

Figure 1. Predicted probabilities for registering NPA/Unaffiliated by strength of partisanship. Note: Predicted probabilities generated from the estimates in the Florida and North Carolina models in Table 2.

Hey, this looks familiar! Be sure to check it out!

28.03.2025 14:09 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Florida Bars State Professors From Testifying in Voting Rights Case (Published 2021) After being hired as expert witnesses for groups opposing a restrictive voting law, three University of Florida academics were told they could not participate in the lawsuit against the state.

Congratulations, Michael Wines, on your retirement from the @nytimes.com. And thank you for breaking this bellwether story back in 2021 on the crackdown on faculty free speech at UF. www.nytimes.com/2021/10/29/u...

26.03.2025 10:59 β€” πŸ‘ 3    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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What do we know about Cuba-born registered voters in South Florida? With the recent revocation by the Trump Administration of the humanitarian parole program, hundreds-of-thousands of Cubans legally in the U.S. face deportation

electionsmith.substack.com/p/what-do-we...

26.03.2025 03:18 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 1    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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β€˜Deport every person under the sun’: ICE detains Cubans during immigration appointments Beatriz Monteagudo and Laura de la Caridad Sanchez are two Cuban women detained by ICE after routine appointments in Miramar. More than a dozen others were also possibly detained.

"Federal authorities in South Florida have recently detained at least 18 Cubans."
My next Substack post for subscribers will be a deep dive into changes in party registration & turnout of the more than 460K Cuban-born registered voters in FL, 305K in Miami-Dade

www.miamiherald.com/news/local/i...

24.03.2025 23:21 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Will the deportation of Venezuelans affect the party registrations of Doral voters? At least one-in-seven registered voters in Doral, a Trump stronghold, were born in Venezuela.

open.substack.com/pub/election...

21.03.2025 19:43 β€” πŸ‘ 1    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Federal court finds Ohio's "fair and truthful" review of ballot initiatives runs afoul of Anderson-Burdick #ELB Decision in Brown v. Yost, stayed pending appeal to the Sixth Circuit: Citizens of Ohio have the power to amend the state constitution. Proponents of an amendment must follow a process that culminates...

And also pleased to see this decision by a Federal District Court Judge in Ohio concerning the rights of citizens to amend the state constitution via the initiative process. Several direct democracy scholars and I submitted an amicus brief on behalf of the plaintiffs. electionlawblog.org?p=149008

20.03.2025 02:53 β€” πŸ‘ 7    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Federal Court Strikes Down Restrictive, Suppressive Texas Voting Measures in S.B. 1 that Limited Voting Assistance Media Contacts:Β Β LDF, media@naacpldf.orgΒ The Arc, dilworth@thearc.orgDelta Sigma Theta Sorority, Inc., inquiries@deltasigmatheta.orgArentFox Schiff, nathan.carlile@afslaw.comRay Shackelfo

Highlighting some good news on the legal front. Proud to have served as an expert for the HAUL plaintiffs, working with the amazing attorneys at NAACP LDF, to successfully challenge SB 1 in TX. www.naacpldf.org/press-releas...

20.03.2025 02:47 β€” πŸ‘ 15    πŸ” 3    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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DHS official defends Mahmoud Khalil arrest, but offers few details on why it happened Homeland Security deputy secretary Troy Edgar offered few details on the Trump administration's legal reasoning to deport Palestinian activist Mahmoud Khalil.

From the Nathan Thurm School of Law... www.npr.org/2025/03/13/n...

13.03.2025 17:30 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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Addressing Risks from Perkins Coie LLP By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: Section 1. Purpose. The

This is insane: www.whitehouse.gov/presidential...

07.03.2025 16:41 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 2    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 3
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In honor of the passing of Robert Clark A note on the election of African American state legislators in the modern South

In honor of the passing of Robert Clark
open.substack.com/pub/election...

05.03.2025 01:23 β€” πŸ‘ 0    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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I'm hoping some of you might be interested in making a charitable contribution to support UF students working with @electproject.bsky.social and me in our Election Lab. Here's the direct link to give: Election Science Group Fund (023435) www.uff.ufl.edu/giving-oppor...

20.02.2025 18:21 β€” πŸ‘ 5    πŸ” 5    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
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Some musings on method of votes cast in Florida Fewer than one-in-four Republicans voted on Election Day in the 2024 General Election

open.substack.com/pub/election...

26.01.2025 19:00 β€” πŸ‘ 4    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0

We will see if FL SOEs step up to oppose DeSantis' proposal that will effectively kill direct democracy in Florida, not because they normatively support the citizen initiative, but because it will be costly and burdensome to distribute and collect signature petitions, beyond validating them

24.01.2025 13:12 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 0    πŸ“Œ 0
Post image 24.01.2025 13:06 β€” πŸ‘ 2    πŸ” 0    πŸ’¬ 1    πŸ“Œ 0
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DeSantis proposals would be "kiss of death" for citizen-led ballot measures, experts say Floridians would effectively lose access to a policy-making avenue they've used to increase the state minimum wage, legalize medical marijuana and more.

www.axios.com/local/tampa-...

24.01.2025 13:05 β€” πŸ‘ 6    πŸ” 6    πŸ’¬ 2    πŸ“Œ 4

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