Tim Osborn

👀 new storm events database site at @noaa.gov , and it's not terrible!

Go check out the beta site and break it!

www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/storm...

I'd settle for realistically realistic

The greatest risk of AI in higher education isn’t cheating – it’s the erosion of learning itself Automating knowledge production and teaching weakens the ecosystem of students and scholars that sustains universities, raising existential questions about their mission.

The greatest risk of AI in Higher Education isn’t cheating — it’s the erosion of learning itself

If we eliminate the friction that builds expertise, what’s left? Struggle isn’t inefficiency. Ignore this, and we’ll produce credentials while quietly dismantling HE

theconversation.com/the-greatest...

There is probably a distributional assumption (gaussian?) in some part of the method. For precipitation, they cube-root the anomalies to reduce skewness. I wonder how well that works? They also standardise by subtracting global mean (of what? raw obs anoms with uneven coverage?) which seems odd

I like that they also attempt precipitation. I'd like to see them focus on getting the land precip better rather than on estimating ocean precip from land obs, which is a different challenge. I'll have to delve into the SI for more on land precipitation.

From noise, all this A new paper has appeared on arXiv: Generative deep learning improves reconstruction of global historical climate records. It uses, as you might guess from the title, generative deep learning to rec…

From noise, all this

Notes on a new global temperature reconstruction that uses a spatio-temporal probabilistic diffusion model generative deep learning thingummybob to fill gaps in the data.

diagrammonkey.wordpress.com/2026/02/28/f...

"2021–2023: Extreme Years of Global Drought in the Context of Long- and Short-Term Hydroclimate Trends"

New work, led by LDEO PhD student Aandishah Samara (w/ JE Smerdon, R Seager):

journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

11th National Climate Dynamics Workshop UK Climate Dynamics Workshops are annual in-person events aiming to promote collaboration amongst the UK academic sector and the Met Office.

Registration now open for the 11th UK National Climate Dynamics Workshop.

22-24 June at University of Reading. Abstract deadline is 30 April.

www.rmets.org/event/11th-n...

A helicopter drops water over a forest engulfed in thick smoke and flames, with the sky lit a dramatic orange from the fire. The scene depicts a vigorous effort to combat a wildfire over a dense wooded area.

New research from the UEA's @tyndallcentre.bsky.social has found that the most high-risk conditions for fires are increasingly happening across countries at the same time.

#Academia #ResearchMatters #Wildfires #ThisIsUEA

Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies Human fingerprints, marked by tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, are evident in Earth's changing atmospheric thermal structure A claim to the contrary in a recent report of the US De...

One topic covered in the interview is the US DoE's flawed climate working group report of 2025. Yesterday Ben and colleagues published this article, demonstrating the DoE's report was factually incorrect in its claims about stratospheric temperatures agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Prof Ben Santer: Trump administration is ‘embracing ignorance’ on climate science - Carbon Brief In an interview with Carbon Brief, Santer says the Trump administration is “engaged in a systematic attempt to dismantle climate science”

Well worth watching this interview from January of UEA's Ben Santer by @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org for @carbonbrief.org. Heartfelt and moving, while also informative about Ben's views on climate action and climate science in the current geopolitical circumstances.
www.carbonbrief.org/prof-ben-san...

DOE climate report 'demonstrably incorrect', say scientists in new analysis A leading climate scientist has sought to set the record straight over "demonstrably incorrect" claims made in a major U.S. government report that misrepresented his work and downplayed the role of hu...

DOE climate report 'demonstrably incorrect', say scientists in new analysis

phys.org/news/2026-02...

Regarding a recent community science paper on 1.5°C of #globalwarming (doi.org/10.5194/essd...), the graph I like the most shows #seaice extent anomalies for different datasets and reconstructions. The most striking feature is HadISST2 disagreement with Antarctic reconstructions.

For more problems with the DoE's report see this comprehensive review put together by @andrewdessler.com and colleagues: doi.org/10.22541/ess...

Figure 1 from Santer et al. (2026) showing agreement between model predictions and observations of global temperature change across multiple stratospheric and tropospheric layers.

The DoE report was flawed because it only considered the lower stratosphere, and even there it made false claims about model-obs disagreement. Ben's figure shows agreement between model predictions and observations of global temperature change across multiple stratospheric and tropospheric layers.

Modeled and Observed Stratospheric Temperature Changes: Implications for Fingerprint Studies Human fingerprints, marked by tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling, are evident in Earth's changing atmospheric thermal structure A claim to the contrary in a recent report of the US De...

One topic covered in the interview is the US DoE's flawed climate working group report of 2025. Yesterday Ben and colleagues published this article, demonstrating the DoE's report was factually incorrect in its claims about stratospheric temperatures agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

Prof Ben Santer: Trump administration is ‘embracing ignorance’ on climate science - Carbon Brief In an interview with Carbon Brief, Santer says the Trump administration is “engaged in a systematic attempt to dismantle climate science”

Well worth watching this interview from January of UEA's Ben Santer by @rtmcswee.carbonbrief.org for @carbonbrief.org. Heartfelt and moving, while also informative about Ben's views on climate action and climate science in the current geopolitical circumstances.
www.carbonbrief.org/prof-ben-san...

This is a really informative post and I encourage readers to particularly read the worked example that Zeke provides. Seeing things “in action” always helps me understand it

The AI-Augmented Scientist The promise and pitfalls of using AI tools to boost my capabilities as a scientist

As a rare climate scientist working in Silicon Valley, I've been drinking from the AI firehose a lot more than my peers. I thought it would be helpful to lay out my experiences of both the promise and pitfalls of using AI to accelerate scientific research:

Joint probabilistic estimates of temperature and precipitation from tree ring-based reconstructions of the last millennium Abstract. An understanding of Earth's past climate can help put current and future changes into historical context. Widely used tree ring-based drought atlases generally target the Palmer Drought Seve...

This is very cool - @drkatemarvel.bsky.social et al. 'Joint probabilistic estimates of temperature and precipitation from tree ring-based reconstructions of the last millennium' ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/12/...

No paywall for this vital @financialtimes.com coverage of the changing face of war in #putinswar on Ukraine and beyond. t.co/gT2IbR9HRg

A reminder to those at #OSM26, there's an oceanography feed where your stuff could be seen by thousands, even if you have only one follower. Join, pin, like, post, enjoy.

I am reliably informed that “virtual attendance” to OSM26 DOES NOT INCLUDE WATCHING THE TALKS, JUST DOWNLOADING THE SLIDES, and I would like to understand the decision making process for that. #agu #OSM26

Subscribe to Volts A newsletter, podcast, & community focused on the technology, politics, and policy of decarbonization. In your inbox once or twice a week. Click to read Volts, a Substack publication with tens of thou...

It has occurred to me that the optimal level of marketing for my podcast Volts, upon which my family's entire income depends, might be higher than its current level of zero.

On stealth corrections to the academic record.

That is, changes made by the publisher after publication, with no notice given.

Guess what? MDPI are caught moving articles out of special issues post.

Read more in this blog

deevybee.blogspot.com/2026/02/gues...

Come work with us! 🧪🌐🧑‍💻🌿🐸❄️

I am hireing a #postdoc in Climate Change Ecology to work on Ecological Synthesis and support the upcoming #IPCC report as a Chapter Scientist (CH14: terrestrial, freshwater and cryopspheric biodiversity, ecosystems, and services. #IPCC #AR7
@ipcc.bsky.social

Would be interesting to see similar analysis over Finland's or Fennoscandian domain. The lack of precipitation has been likewise historic here.

I just did the dumbest thing of my entire career to prove a much more serious point.

I tricked ChatGPT and Google, and made them tell other users I’m a competitive hot-dog-eating world champion

People are using this trick on a massive scale to make AI tell you lies. I’ll explain how I did it

Thanks for pointing this out, also @volts.wtf. And the list goes on, incl why do we normalise adaptation since many strategies are often associated with loss of livelihood, social capital and identity > rarely brought up. The global debates are just centred on funding, obscuring other key issues.

How has your country's climate changed over the past century? Find out here: