2/2 "The National #Corn Growers Association said on Monday the surplus supply promises to keep #corn #prices low as farmers struggle to pay high input #costs." 'We need long-term market solutions,' NGCA President Jed Bower said.
farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2026/01/usda...
1/ Today's Farm Policy News Summary covers how "USDA stunned the market by boosting its 2025 U.S. (#corn) crop estimate above 17 billion bushels for the first time, signaling a heavy supply outlook that likely will burden #prices."
farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2026/01/usda...
3/3 More #rented acres are now needed to generate the returns needed to help finance #farmland #purchases. This has created greater risk exposure for farms that are more heavily reliant on rented farmland.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
2/ In contrast, average returns to #rented #farmland have not trended upward as cost increases for other inputs have offset additional revenues from higher corn and soybean prices and yield increases.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
1/ Over the past twenty years, average cash #rents have more than doubled in Illinois while the cash requirements associated with #farmland ownership have more than tripled.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/cash...
3/3 By 2024, vulnerable #farms — despite their higher leverage — earned both the highest gross farm #returns per acre and the least negative management returns among all groups.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
2/ Strong grain #farms (< 30% debt-to-asset ratio) experienced the steepest drop, followed by cautionary farms (30–60%), while vulnerable farms (> 60%) reported the smallest decline.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
1/ Median management #returns declined sharply across all debt categories from 2022 to 2024, but the pattern of decline varied meaningfully by financial position.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
3/3 Historical models predicting #soybean #prices based on oil and meal values have broken down, making price forecasting more difficult.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
2/ Since 2020, the #renewable #diesel boom has disrupted longstanding #soybean pricing relationships. Soybean oil’s share of crush value jumped from 25-35% to 35-50% and values and crush margins became significantly more volatile.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
1/ The US #soybean industry has responded to the #renewable #diesel boom by increasing production of soybean oil, an important feedstock in bio-based diesel production.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/the-...
3/3 Since 2020, physical storage #cost and interest opportunity cost have both increased, resulting in higher total storage cost. This largely holds whether total storage cost is measured per bushel or per acre of production.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
2/ From 2005 through 2020 and especially for #corn, a somewhat larger increase in physical storage #cost was mostly, but not completely, offset by an interest opportunity cost that approached zero.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
1/ Total #storage #cost for US #corn and #soybeans changed little from 1974 through 2005. Declining interest opportunity cost due to declining interest rates offset small, on-going increases in physical storage cost.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/annu...
3/3 Taken together, the evidence suggests that while most #farms are well-positioned to weather higher borrowing #costs, those with the heaviest #debt loads face the highest financial strain.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
2/ By contrast, #farms in the moderate-high interest #expense cohort have generally strengthened their balance sheets, keeping leverage in the strong range (debt-to-asset ratio <30%) even as interest costs began to rise after 2022.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
1/ #Farms in the high #interest expense cohort remain in a cautionary leverage position (debt-to-asset ratio of 30-60%), with rising #debt and surging interest costs posing clear financial stress despite asset growth.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/10/solv...
3/3 However, high non-land production #costs continue to suggest negative #farmer #returns even under a variable cash #lease from 2023 through 2026.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
2/ The revised variable #lease is shown to provide larger downward adjustment in #rent levels than have or are expected to occur with average cash rents.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
1/ Revised #rent factors for a simple variable #cash #lease are slightly lower than those previously estimated in 2022.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/revi...
3/3 For 2026, #prices are forecast to average $91.63/cwt in the 1st quarter and then rise seasonally to $98.82/cwt and $101.45/cwt in the 2nd and 3rd quarters.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
2/ As such, the Sept. 1 inventory of all #hogs and #pigs, at 74.5 million head, is up 1.02% from revised estimates for last quarter but down 1.35% from last year. Prices are forecast to drop to an average of $94.56/cwt for the 4th quarter of 2025.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
1/ The USDA’s September #Hogs and #Pigs report was a bit of a surprise. While many analysts expected some #herd expansion, this report’s downward revisions of June 1 inventories by nearly 2% appear to be the alternative explanation.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/surp...
3/3 With U.S. #farm sector #debt projected to reach $591.8 billion in 2025 and farm #bankruptcies rising, farmers should prioritize diligent record keeping and monitor debt ratios to ensure sufficient margins for debt payments.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
2/ However, the recent sharp rise in interest #expense per tillable acre, especially for the 25% of farms with the highest #debt servicing costs, signals an increase in financial strain.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
1/ Our analysis of the distribution of the #debt-to-asset ratios reveals that most #grain #farms in Illinois have maintained ratios in the strong category (below 30%) over the past two decades.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/solv...
3/3 Policy responses, like payments, that keep #costs high while #prices and #incomes drop are paying farmers to drive combines over the proverbial cliff and into crisis. Can we do better this time around?
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
2/ If this latest round of #trade and #tariff conflicts have substantially damaged export #markets for the foreseeable future — ceding them to competitors or worse — then farmers are going to need adjustments more than payments.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
1/ Ultimately, federal taxpayer-funded #payments for farmers are no match for the tough reality of lost demand or damaged #markets. For example, in 2024 alone, the U.S. exported almost $176 billion worth of agricultural products.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/hist...
3/3 If a #trade deal isn’t reached this fall, U.S. #soybean producers reliant on Chinese buyers could suffer significant losses, adding even more financial stress to crop farms.
farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/09/us-s...
