Pennsylvania Maps

I'm exhausted by all the efforts to rewrite the history of the 2022 US Senate primary in Pennsylvania, with folks insisting "we told you so!" as to Fetterman, that Conor Lamb was always the better choice, and generally ignoring Malcolm Kenyatta's historic candidacy.

So let me say a few things. 🧵1/

The way I see it, modernity has caused the US system of govt to converge on a dissolution of the separation of powers btwn the legislative & executive. A policymaking branch, if you will. But if that is to be the case, I'd rather policymaking power be vested in a parliament than the president alone.

Thread of stories run by Bari Weiss's group blog that did not ask the targets of (frequently uncorroborated) accusations for comment, let alone give them a preemptive veto over the story:

Problem is, baseball WAR is close an all-encompassing statistic. SplitTicket's WAR provides useful information but it's nowhere near on that level, and it's maddening for its authors to act like they've solved politics.

Does he really think interrupting the Survivor finale for this will endear him to anyone?

Meanwhile that PA-03 would be like...barely a state house district now

Per @LIEngProf on twitter, looks like it was based around what was then called North Penn

Thought the mottes were another fake Schumer couple

Besides Cumberland’s Recorder of Deeds election, Democrats also won countywide races for Prothonotary and a judicial position

On a good night for Pennsylvania Democrats across the board, Cumberland County’s results were perhaps the most eye-popping of all (9/9)

2025 Cumberland County Recorder of Deeds precinct map in HD-199

Finally, Rep. Barbara Gleim’s 199th district includes Carlisle (college town) plus rural areas

It voted Republican for Recorder of Deeds by just 3.4%

And in the statewide Superior Court race, Democrat Brandon Neuman lost it by a narrower margin (1.05%) than Shapiro in ‘22 (8/9)

2025 Cumberland County Recorder of Deeds precinct map in HD-87

The more exurban 87th district, held by Thomas Kutz, voted Shapiro-Oz in 2022

It voted Republican in this year’s Recorder of Deeds election by 4.3% (7/9)

2025 Cumberland County Recorder of Deeds precinct map in HD-88

The 88th district, based in Harrisburg’s suburbs and held by Sheryl Delozier, has been on Democrats’ radar the past couple cycles, as it voted for both Fetterman and Shapiro in 2022

Democrat Susan Turner won it comfortably, by 8.5%, in the 2025 Recorder of Deeds race (6/9)

Looking ahead to 2026, Democrats are hoping to expand their 102-101 majority in the State House

There are 3 Republican-held districts located entirely within Cumberland County, and they are emerging as new battlegrounds amidst Pennsylvania’s evolving political geography (5/9)

When voters’ preferences change, it typically happens at the Presidential level first, before filtering down to Congressional, state, and finally local elections

Tuesday’s results show that Cumberland’s lingering Republican loyalty in downballot races has evaporated (4/9)

Take the Recorder of Deeds office

Republican Tammy Shearer was first elected in 2013, running unopposed

She won re-election twice, in 2017 and 2021, by identical 21% margins (3/9)

Cumberland County has been moving steadily leftward at the Presidential level for several cycles now, from Mitt Romney’s 18% victory in 2012 to Donald Trump’s 9% win in 2024

But the county has remained ruby red at the local level (2/9)

2025 Cumberland County Recorder of Deeds election precinct map with State House District overlay

Tuesday saw a seismic shift on the Susquehanna’s west bank

Ancestrally Republican Cumberland County didn’t just vote for Democrats at the top of the ticket, it also elected Dems to 3 county-level offices

Thread on the RECORDER OF DEEDS race and its State House implications (1/9)

~18% overperformance in the NY media market

BLUEZERNE COUNTY COUNCIL

Commonwealth & Superior Courts is what my post was about. Dems are winning big.

Just spot-checking some fully-reported precincts in bellwether Northampton County, the Democratic judicial candidates are outperforming Biden by ~20%. This is looking like a landslide.

The races for PA Commonwealth and Superior Court have gotten surprisingly little attention. Those are hugely important and are likely to be much closer than the retention votes.

If you need any more motivation to cast a ballot, here it is.

the actual contrast is between spanberger/mamdani (focused message, vigorous campaigns) and sherrill (unfocused, half-hearted)

Mirror image of their run this time last year

PENNSYLVANIA is now the first state with multiple Democratic House members to have the majority of its House Democratic caucus cosponsor the Block the Bombs Act (Lee, Scanlon, Dean, and Evans)
www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...

*Taps the sign* Being good at data does not make one a good pundit

Not that they deserve primary blame, but Biden/Harris were the ones who framed the election as being about democracy, and I think that's contributed to how it's been interpreted after the fact

Consumer protection should be in the mix

I will not stand for ABWH slander on my timeline

God's Country