Polling Canada

Arthasbaska By-Election Results - (9:42PM ET):

Boissonneault (PQ): 45.9%
Duhaime (CON): 36.9%
Marchand (LIB): 8.3%
Brasseur (CAQ): 6.9%
Fortin (QS): 1.4%

- 119 / 187 Polls Reporting -

Arthasbaska By-Election Results - (9:22PM ET):

Boissonneault (PQ): 46.4%
Duhaime (CON): 38.4%
Marchand (LIB): 7.1%
Brasseur (CAQ): 5.8%
Fortin (QS): 1.6%

- 70 / 187 Polls Reporting -

It's kind of amazing just how brutally the CAQ is getting beat in Arthabaska

They had 51% in this riding last election, and they're sitting at 5.3% right now

Arthasbaska By-Election Results - (9:02PM ET):

Boissonneault (PQ): 49.6%
Duhaime (CON): 35.4%
Marchand (LIB): 7.8%
Brasseur (CAQ): 5.2%
Fortin (QS): 1.2%

- 31 / 187 Polls Reporting -

Arthasbaska By-Election Results - (8:50PM ET):

Boissonneault (PQ): 45.7%
Duhaime (CON): 36.5%
Marchand (LIB): 13.5%
Brasseur (CAQ): 3.4%
Fortin (QS): 0.7%

- 8 /187 Polls Reporting -

Arthasbaska By-Election Results - (8:40PM ET):

Boissonneault (PQ): 44.2%
Duhaime (CON): 40.6%
Marchand (LIB): 8%
Brasseur (CAQ): 6.5%
Fortin (QS): 0.7%

- 1/187 Polls Reporting -

Polls are now closed in the Arthabaska by-election!

It's shaping up to be a PQ-Conservative fight, as the CAQ falls massively behind in the provincial polls

Here are the results in this riding from the 2022 election:

CAQ: 51.8%
CON: 24.7%
PQ: 10%
QS: 9.2%
QLP: 3.8%

Global Leader Net-Approvals:

🇮🇳 Modi: +51
🇰🇷 Jae-myung: +28
🇨🇦 Carney: +25
🇦🇺 Albanese: +24
🇲🇽 Sheinbaum: +17
🇦🇷 Milei: +15

🇺🇸 Trump: -4
🇮🇹 Meloni: -13
🇧🇷 Silva: -20
🇩🇪 Mertz: -23
🇪🇸 Sanchez: -27
🇬🇧 Starmer: -39
🇯🇵 Ishiba: -39
🇫🇷 Macron: -58

Morning Consult / August 10, 2025

Canadians Wary on Immigration, Bullish on Big National Projects Pessimism over next generation’s prospects contrasts with enthusiasm for major infrastructure in new Nanos survey.

📊Canadians Wary on Immigration, Bullish on Big National Projects

🔧Pessimism over next generation’s prospects contrasts with enthusiasm for major infrastructure, the latest from @canadianpolling.bsky.social for 338 ↓ www.338canada.ca/p/canadians-...

Youth Unemployment Hits 15% in Canada The sharp increase marks a steady upward trend since 2022, with young men facing the highest rates

Unemployment Rate Among 15-24 Year Olds:

🟠 All: 15.1%

🔵 Men: 15.9%
🔴 Women: 14.1%

Read it here -> open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Government Approval Polling:

Approve: 50%
Disapprove: 27%

Abacus / Aug 7, 2025 / n=1686 / Online

Pierre Poilievre Net Approval Polling:

Canada: +1%

AB: +28%
SK/MB: +20%
BC: +3%
ON: +3%
ATL: Even
QC: -21%

Men: +7%
Women: -5%

Abacus / Aug 7, 2025 / n=1686 / Online

Mark Carney Net Approval Polling:

Canada: +19%

QC: +41%
BC: +20%
ON: +18%
ATL: +14%
SK/MB: +8%
AB: -11%

Men: +21%
Women: +18%

Abacus / Aug 7, 2025 / n=1686 / Online

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Federal Polling:

LPC: 43% (-1)
CPC: 40% (-1)
NDP: 8% (+2)
BQ: 6% (-)
GPC: 2% (+1)

Abacus / Aug 7, 2025 / n=1686 / Online

(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)

Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

Canadians Accuse Israel of Genocide New polling shows growing numbers across party lines believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide

"Israel is intentionally obstructing the supply of food and aid to civilians in Gaza"

🟢 Agree: 60%
🔴 Disagree: 18%

⚪️ Unsure: 22%

Read it here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Battleground British Columbia While the rest of the nation remains quiet, British Columbia continues to be competitive between Liberals and Conservatives

Polling Canada Federal Model Update:

🔴 LPC: 199 (+30)
🔵 CPC: 118 (-26)
⚜️ BQ: 18 (-4)
🟠 NDP: 6 (-1)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)

(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)

- August 9, 2025 -

Full model article here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/battlegrou...

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Donate to my Ko-fi -> ko-fi.com/polling

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Canadians Accuse Israel of Genocide New polling shows growing numbers across party lines believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide

"Which is closer to your point of view?"

🔴 Israel Is Committing Genocide Against Palestinians: 52%

🔵 Israel Is Not Committing Genocide: 25%

⚪️ Unsure: 23%

Read it here -> open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Canadians Accuse Israel of Genocide New polling shows growing numbers across party lines believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide

"Criticizing Israel Is Anti-Semitic"

🔴 Disagree: 72%
🟢 Agree: 11%

Read it here -> open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Canadians Accuse Israel of Genocide New polling shows growing numbers across party lines believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide

Support For Recognizing A Palestinian State:

🟢 All: 61%

🟢 18-34: 64%
🟢 35-54: 58%
🟢 55+ 61%

🟢 NDP: 89%
🟢 LPC: 82%
🟢 CPC: 32%

canadianpolling.substack.com/p/canadians-...

Canadians Accuse Israel of Genocide New polling shows growing numbers across party lines believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide

Support For Recognizing A Palestinian State:

🟢 Support: 61%
🔴 Oppose: 39%

Read it here -> open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Canadians Accuse Israel of Genocide New polling shows growing numbers across party lines believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide

"Who do your sympathies rest more with?"

🟢 Palestinians: 37%
🟡 Both Equally: 27%
🔵 Israelis: 19%

⚪️ Unsure: 17%

Read it here -> open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Canadians Accuse Israel of Genocide New polling shows growing numbers across party lines believe Israel’s actions in Gaza constitute a genocide

New polling finds Canadians support Palestinian statehood, while more than half say that the actions Israel is carrying out constitutes a genocide against the Palestinian people

Read it here -> open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

The NDP’s Identity Crisis Stuck between its past and present, the party can’t decide who it’s for

The NDP were once a party that could battle it out in rural ridings and win

Now they're battling it out in the urban cores, and they keep losing

Maybe it's time they return to their roots

Read it here

open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

Seats on this poll are - (Safe / Likely / Lean / Tilt):
LPC: 229 - (140 - 42 - 14 - 33)
CPC: 89 - (43 - 17 - 15 -14)
NDP: 16 - (4 - 8 - 2 - 2)
BQ: 8 - (0 - 0 - 5 - 3)
GPC: 1 - (0 - 0 - 0 - 1)

This is content normally reserved for my Substack, so subscribe there if this interested you! (canadianpolling.substack.com)

Here is this week's Nanos poll mapped out and modelled

Regionals are paywalled, but for context, the Liberals are ahead by 23-points in Ontario and 27-points in Quebec

Never said the rules are what's driving them away

The type of language that the party uses, as exemplified in their leadership rules, is what drives normie voters away

The NDP’s Identity Crisis Stuck between its past and present, the party can’t decide who it’s for

The NDP were once a party that could battle it out in rural ridings and win

Now they're battling it out in the urban cores, and they keep losing

Maybe it's time they return to their roots

Read it here

open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

British Columbia - Fundraising For Q2 2025:

🟠 NDP: 700.5K
🔵 CON: $350K
🟢 GRN: $200K

The NDP’s Identity Crisis Stuck between its past and present, the party can’t decide who it’s for

As we sit in the middle of the summer break, with little else to report on, I sit down and have a few thoughts about the NDP and where it ought to go

open.substack.com/pub/canadian...