Polling Canada

(Models Available To Subscribers)

British Columbia Provincial Polling:

CON: 47% (+3)
NDP: 39% (-6)
GRN: 10% (+2)
Others: 4%

Innovative / March 3, 2026 / n=605 / Online

(% Change With 2024 Election)

Check out BC details on @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/bc/

Polling Average In Saskatchewan/Manitoba:

🔵 CPC: 46% (-9)
🔴 LPC: 37% (+3)
🟠 NDP: 11% (+2)
🟢 GPC: 4% (+3)

(% Change With 2025 Election)

Mark Carney Approval Polling In:

Alberta:
🟢 Approve: 54%
⚫️ Disapprove: 40%

Ontario:
🟢 Approve: 70%
⚫️ Disapprove: 27%

Quebec:
🟢 Approve: 63%
⚫️ Disapprove: 29%

Liaison / March 7, 2026

Polling Average In Alberta:

🔵 CPC: 49% (-15)
🔴 LPC: 37% (+10)
🟠 NDP: 9% (+3)
🟢 GPC: 2% (+2)

(% Change With 2025 Election)

The Island has been very Green-Orange-Red in recent Nanos polling

Another 220+ Liberal seat poll

(Models Available For Subscribers)

Federal Polling:

LPC: 46% (+2)
CPC: 33% (-8)
NDP: 10% (+4)
BQ: 5% (-1)
GPC: 5% (+4)
PPC: 1% (-)

Nanos / March 6, 2026 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online

(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)

Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

Mark Carney Approval Polling Among:

18-34 Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 62%
⚫️ Disapprove: 34%

35-49 Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 67%
⚫️ Disapprove: 29%

50-64 Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 66%
⚫️ Disapprove: 29%

65+ Year Olds:
🟢 Approve: 62%
⚫️ Disapprove: 30%

Liaison / March 7, 2026

Federal Government Approval Polling:

🔴 Liberals:
Approve: 94%
Disapprove: 6%

🟠 NDP:
Approve: 59%
Disapprove: 41%

⚜️ Bloc:
Disapprove: 51%
Approve: 49%

🔵 Conservatives:
Disapprove: 63%
Approve: 37%

Spark Insight / March 6, 2026

Leader Impression Polling:

Mark Carney:
🟢 Approve: 64%
⚫️ Disapprove: 31%
⚪️ Net: +33%

Pierre Poilievre:
⚫️ Unfavourable: 54%
🟢 Favourable: 36%
⚪️ Net: -18%

Liaison / March 7, 2026

Mark Carney Approval Polling Among:

Men:
🟢 Approve: 64%
⚫️ Disapprove: 31%

Women:
🟢 Approve: 65%
⚫️ Disapprove: 30%

Liaison / March 7, 2026

Federal Government Approval - Western Canada:

BC:
Approve: 69%
Disapprove: 31%

MB:
Approve: 63%
Disapprove: 37%

AB:
Approve: 58%
Disapprove: 42%

SK:
Approve: 56%
Disapprove: 44%

Spark Insight / March 6, 2026

Here are the only four NDP seats on the current model:

Edmonton Strathcona: NDP +16
Rosemont-La Petite-Petrie - NDP +10
Elmwood-Transcona: NDP +0.5
Edmonton Griesbach: NDP +0.5

Fun

Liaison poll for the morning has the Conservatives falling off a short cliff

Honestly, at this rate we may see a poll with the Conservatives in the 20s

Isn't it great we as Canadians have to pay like 30-40 cents more a litre all because the dipshit down south had to bomb another country

Full model and map up for Subscribers shortly

But woof, that may be the single largest Liberal seat count we've seen to date on a single poll

We're sitting at a wider seat gap today on the polling averages than we were during the summer when the Liberals were enjoying their post-election honeymoon

Something is consistently happening in Alberta right now

Alberta - Leader Net-Favourables:

Carney: +3%
Poilievre: +3%
Trump: -57%

Abacus / Feb 25, 2026 / n=1000 / Online

Alberta - Federal Government Approval:

Approve: 41%
Disapprove: 38%
Net: +3%

Abacus / Feb 25, 2026 / n=1000 / Online

(Models Available For Subscribers)

Federal Polling:

LPC: 46% (+2)
CPC: 31% (-10)
NDP: 10% (+4)
BQ: 5% (-1)
Others: 8%

Spark Insights / March 6, 2026 / n=3055 / Online

(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)

Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

The Opposition Is Running Out Of Seats Liberal polling is pushing the Conservatives far down in the polls, and nearly removing the NDP from the House

Polling Canada Federal Model Update:

🔴 LPC: 217 (+48)
🔵 CPC: 98 (-46)
⚜️ BQ: 22 (-)
🟠 NDP: 4 (-3)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)

(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)

- March 7, 2026 -

Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

(Models Available For Subscribers)

Alberta Federal Polling:

CPC: 51% (-13)
LPC: 36% (+8)
NDP: 7% (+1)
PPC: 2% (+1)
GPC: 1% (+1)
Others: 2%

Abacus / Feb 25, 2026 / n=1000 / Online

(% Change w 2025 Federal Election)

Visit @338canada.bsky.social for polling details: 338canada.com

The Opposition Is Running Out Of Seats Liberal polling is pushing the Conservatives far down in the polls, and nearly removing the NDP from the House

Polling Canada Federal Model Update:

🔴 LPC: 217 (+48)
🔵 CPC: 98 (-46)
⚜️ BQ: 22 (-)
🟠 NDP: 4 (-3)
🟢 GPC: 2 (+1)

(Seat Changes With 2025 Federal Election)

- March 7, 2026 -

Full model article here: open.substack.com/pub/canadian...

(Models Available To Subscribers)

Alberta Provincial Polling:

UCP: 49% (-4)
NDP: 36% (-8)
ALP: 9% (+9)
ABP: 2% (+1)
Others: 2%

Abacus / Feb 25, 2026 / n=1000 / Online

(% Change With 2023 Election)

Check out AB model details from @338canada.bsky.social here: 338canada.com/alberta

War With Iran Has Canadians Concerned As missiles fly, Canadians question the long term consequences for all involved

Among Conservatives - "How long do you believe the war in Iran will last?"

🔵 Less Than A Month: 15%
🟢 1-6 Months: 39%
🟡 6 Months-1 Year: 18%
🟠 1-5 Years: 17%
🔴 5-10 Years: 2%
⚫️ 10+ Years: 2%

⚪️ Unsure: 7%

Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...

War With Iran Has Canadians Concerned As missiles fly, Canadians question the long term consequences for all involved

"How long do you believe the war in Iran will last?"

🔵 Less Than A Month: 9%
🟢 1-6 Months: 27%
🟡 6 Months-1 Year: 19%
🟠 1-5 Years: 21%
🔴 5-10 Years: 5%
⚫️ 10+ Years: 4%

⚪️ Unsure: 15%

Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...

War With Iran Has Canadians Concerned As missiles fly, Canadians question the long term consequences for all involved

Among Liberals - "How long do you believe the war in Iran will last?"

🔵 Less Than A Month: 6%
🟢 1-6 Months: 23%
🟡 6 Months-1 Year: 19%
🟠 1-5 Years: 26%
🔴 5-10 Years: 7%
⚫️ 10+ Years: 3%

⚪️ Unsure: 16%

Read it free here: canadianpolling.substack.com/p/war-with-i...

Liberals are inching higher on the seat count this week

Latest model update is out tomorrow morning