lol. Yes, I have it going back several years.

And, of course, now there's a shutdown, meaning we're likely to see officials protect more of the revenue growth and reserves due to the uncertainty. More to come!

We’ve seen the CFO reject such lists in the past, even when there was revenue growth due to other budgetary needs. The report didn’t signal whether he’d allow the budgeted items to go into law.

A big question is whether the CFO will approve the contingency list? We’re seeing a significant upswing in revenue (again!) due to his tendency to publish overly cautious forecasts. (Hence the need for a contingency list..)

First, we’d need to know how much overspending DC did in FY 2025 and how much is needed to top off reserves--and perhaps other factors. DC officials haven’t published those figures, making it difficult to determine carryover levels and what's possible.

There’s also the $400 million that Congress prohibited us from spending that should carry over into FY 2026.

Again, DC isn’t facing a budget shortfall, but big questions remain. How much of the revenue bump can be used for new spending, such as the contingency budget list that the DC Council approved in July, for things like early education and the Alliance?

The CFO reiterated that DC is still on track for a recession---starting in FY 2026, or today. The outlook isn’t projected to improve until next Oct, w/an eventual full recovery thereafter. He cautions significant uncertainty due to federal decisions.

It is an urgent imperative for DC to decouple from the federal tax changes. Look at how much we'll lose absent further action--with 66% of the tax cuts flowing to businesses that are doing well.

Overall, revenue grew in nearly all major categories except property taxes in FY25 vs FY24. Looking ahead, DC will have less revenue in FY26 than in FY25, but revenue will grow slowly each year thereafter. We need every dollar available to shore up DC’s budget.

The economy is benefitting the elite the most: corporate profits & non-wage income like capital gains are the biggest drivers of the revenue bump. Yet, the Mayor's statement doubles down on a disproven “growth” agenda w/no mention of struggling residents.

Failing to decouple from these tax cuts that primarily benefit the elite (see the chart) ASAP, will put much-needed local revenues at risk, as DC faces growing budget pressures and continues to suffer from extreme federal decisions that are driving down local revenues.

The forecast offers good news: DC isn't facing a budget deficit, as revenue is ticking up compared to June. The report also signals a new urgency--DC must act quickly to pass tax changes to save $658M due to reckless federal tax cuts that will flow into DC's tax code automatically.

What Happens During a Government Shutdown? Learn how a government shutdown affects you.

Here’s my article on how a government shutdown works.

Shutdowns are complicated, and each shutdown is different. Some things stay open. Some stay open for a bit and eventually close. Some close immediately.

I did my best to explain it all here:

DC is battling austerity policies at the national & local levels. As Republicans have us barreling towards a local recession, Mayor Bowser is adding fuel to the fire w/her budget proposal.

See DCFPI's new blog that pulls back the curtain and offers our first take on Bowser's proposal. ⏬⏬⏬

Today, the House approved a budget bill that included devastating cuts to programs like SNAP and Medicare, programs that tens of thousands of people in DC rely on every day. These plans would create new cuts and barriers that would have sustained effects on the District.

Tazra Mitchell on X: "I appreciate all the attention Punchbowl has brought to Congress's sabotage of DC's budget. However, the tweet below is conflating issues. A DC budget fix remains unresolved regardless of the potential Commanders deal. That's b/c the sabotage is a FY 2025 issue, not FY 2026+." / X I appreciate all the attention Punchbowl has brought to Congress's sabotage of DC's budget. However, the tweet below is conflating issues. A DC budget fix remains unresolved regardless of the potential Commanders deal. That's b/c the sabotage is a FY 2025 issue, not FY 2026+.

Spending local tax dollars in fy26 and beyond on RFK is a bad deal, but like @tazramitchell.bsky.social says to @jakesherman.bsky.social let's not conflate that issue with Congress keeping us from using our own tax dollars this year... x.com/TazraMitchel...

To the extent that the Mayor runs out of tools (we assume she is considering them all), and by then she is deeper into the process of making the remaining $400m in cuts, DCFPI hopes she will work w/community leaders to target those cuts in ways that lead to the least amount of harm.

Once they return from the April recess in 2 weeks, the US House could still take up the DC “fix” legislation, undoing the $1.1b in cuts. The Senate has already approved the bill and Trump has signaled his support. But, the end of the fiscal year/deadline for absorbing the cuts is fast approaching.

Tom Sherwood on X: "#BreakingNews - DC Mayor Muriel Bowser - using an obscure budget law provision - intends to reduce a looming $1.1 billion cut imposed by Congress by legally increasing city spending 6% ($679 million) and cutting spending by $410 million. Details to council next few weeks." / X #BreakingNews - DC Mayor Muriel Bowser - using an obscure budget law provision - intends to reduce a looming $1.1 billion cut imposed by Congress by legally increasing city spending 6% ($679 million) and cutting spending by $410 million. Details to council next few weeks.

We’re grateful Mayor Bowser found a pathway to protect residents from $700M in cuts by invoking a rarely used, congressionally approved DC law allowing the city to raise its budget mid-year by up to 6% x.com/tomsherwood/...

Five Misunderstandings About the Congressional Bill to Protect the District’s Budget Unless the US House takes action, DC will be forced to cut $1 billion from its current budget, in an attack on residents’ fundamental right to self-govern.

And for what? The federal overreach doesn’t save the federal government a single penny and DC has proven itself fiscally responsible—as evidenced by clean audits, balanced budgets, and stellar credit ratings www.dcfpi.org/all/five-mis...

DC Expected to Lose $1 Billion in Revenue Through the Financial Plan Local revenues are expected to decline by more than $1 billion over the next three years compared to previous estimates, largely due to federal layoffs steep enough to throw DC into a mild recession, ...

Being forced to pull back from critical public investments when the CFO is already projecting a mild recession (largely due to federal layoffs) will deepen DC’s bleak economic outlook. www.dcfpi.org/all/dc-expec...

@maustermuhle.bsky.social has a helpful thread that lays out the timing of how some of these cuts could work x.com/maustermuhle...

..that all would lead to detrimental harm to city services.

She identified “extraordinary measures” she'd have to apply b/c of US House’s refusal to move forward the DC “fix” that would right the $1.1B wrong. These include freezes on contracts, overtime, & hiring and possibly furloughs and facility closures....

Mark Segraves on X: "Furloughs of DC government employees and partial closures of some government facilities now being considered by @MayorBowser Mayoral Order imposes spending and overtime freeze. Capital projects like Cap One Arena deal exempt. @nbcwashington https://t.co/ohjdmWTrk2" / X Furloughs of DC government employees and partial closures of some government facilities now being considered by @MayorBowser Mayoral Order imposes spending and overtime freeze. Capital projects like Cap One Arena deal exempt. @nbcwashington https://t.co/ohjdmWTrk2

A $400M cut by September is significant—it'll harm vulnerable residents in need of vital services and the beloved city workers who care for our residents & keep DC functional. The Mayor’s letter lays out the path she is forced to take to achieve those cuts: x.com/SegravesNBC4...

Thank you to @mayorbowser.bsky.social for using tools to protect DC’s local budget by reducing the Congressional budget cut to $400M from $1.1B. Even w/this progress, today she made clear the drastic measures necessary to make remaining cuts, including furloughs & contract pauses.

The Mayor’s budget may be delayed, but we do have some insight into her priorities by way of her office’s Guiding Principles. How does a program like the Pay Equity Fund stack up against these principles? Let’s dig in 🧵

Cuts to Federal Food Assistance Will Hurt Residents Just As DC Enters Recession More than 140,000 residents of the District of Columbia are at risk of not having enough to eat if the proposals in Congress to make substantial cuts to the nation’s primary food assistance program ar...

More than 140,000 residents of the District are at risk of not having enough to eat if the proposals in Congress to make cuts to the nation’s primary food assistance program are not defeated. loom.ly/XbDZL9c

Exaggerated claims of “tax flight” should be set down once and for all. Let’s focus on the facts as DC stares down massive federal fiscal threats on top of a looming $1 billion loss in local funds.